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Holiday Forecasts 2021


Brian D
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/12/2021 at 5:15 PM, Brian D said:

Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day.

 

Mother's Day forecast.gif

Darn close call. Looks like the wet weather will be coming quickly through on Ma's day with some early am snow possible for some. I thought it would be through, except for lingering wx  in the east, but looks like that won't happen till evening.

Mother's Day forecast GFS 2.png

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36 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

You're an odd duck. Par for the course in my experience living in MN so far. 

I would say a significant portion of people who post on weather forums, probably a majority, would classify ourselves as “odd ducks.” So the guy likes predicting what the weather will be like on holidays, months in advance, presumably for entertainment purposes, and then seeing if his forecasts based (I would assume) mostly on guesswork verify. A living, breathing, Farmer’s Almanac.

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My July 4 weekend forecast. On Saturday, I'm expecting a system to pass through our region, with another one affecting the western areas on the 4th. So dodging rain and storms on the holiday weekend. Nothing new there. :)

 

Independence day weekend forecast.png

Independence day weekend forecast PT 2.png

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On 5/6/2021 at 5:35 PM, TimB84 said:

I would say a significant portion of people who post on weather forums, probably a majority, would classify ourselves as “odd ducks.” So the guy likes predicting what the weather will be like on holidays, months in advance, presumably for entertainment purposes, and then seeing if his forecasts based (I would assume) mostly on guesswork verify. A living, breathing, Farmer’s Almanac.

I personally enjoy it. But we all know the new posting for Independence Day is wrong. It should show a fire symbol with "Dust Bowl" italicized. And a footnote saying thunderstorms in the midwest are a thing of the past. 

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  • 5 weeks later...
On 5/13/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said:

My July 4 weekend forecast. On Saturday, I'm expecting a system to pass through our region, with another one affecting the western areas on the 4th. So dodging rain and storms on the holiday weekend. Nothing new there. :)

 

Independence day weekend forecast.png

Independence day weekend forecast PT 2.png

Noticed 06z GFS picked up what I'm looking for on the July 4th weekend. But many days to go yet.

 

July 3 gfs forecast.png

July 4 gfs forecast.png

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15 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Something for the troll I guess. :)  Here ya go Warren.

 

Juneteenth 2025 Jun 19.png

Toss. That cold front in the Dakotas and that low over KY/TN could spoil the holiday for some. Oh wait, they don’t celebrate Juneteenth in those parts. Plus it’s on a Thursday anyway, so those that have off will have to go back to work the next day anyway. You’re good.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/13/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said:

My July 4 weekend forecast. On Saturday, I'm expecting a system to pass through our region, with another one affecting the western areas on the 4th. So dodging rain and storms on the holiday weekend. Nothing new there. :)

 

Independence day weekend forecast.png

Independence day weekend forecast PT 2.png

That was close again. But the bigger weather will be starting Sun aftrn into Mon.

 

July 3rd forecast map.gif

July 4th forecast map.gif

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/27/2021 at 5:16 PM, Brian D said:

This day many may not be aware of, but it's National Clean-up Day. This year it's on the Saturday, Sept 18. I'm expecting wet weather to move into our region that day.

National Clean-up Day forecast.png

12z GFS showing the pattern I'm seeing for this time frame. 

12z GFS for sept 18.png

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On 7/8/2021 at 6:26 PM, Brian D said:

Ok, here's what I'm thinking for Labor Day weekend. Rather unsettled weather with these fronts moving through Sat into Sunday, and turning colder starting Sunday into Monday.

Labor day wkend forecast.png

Labor day wkend forecast pt 2.png

Labor day wkend forecast pt 3.png

Pretty good call for this weekend, except for the turning colder Sun into Mon part. Generally cool over the weekend with milder temps starting on Monday.

 

Labor day wkend forecast wx map.gif

Labor day wkend forecast wx map 2.gif

Labor day wkend forecast wx map 3.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/27/2021 at 5:16 PM, Brian D said:

This day many may not be aware of, but it's National Clean-up Day. This year it's on the Saturday, Sept 18. I'm expecting wet weather to move into our region that day.

National Clean-up Day forecast.png

Call this one a bust. High pressure is going to move in and shunt the low pressure system to the south, instead of moving along the boundary ENE. "Day late, and a dollar short" with this one.

Sept 18 wx forecast.gif

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