Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Glad I didn't write-off December yesterday. Some hints (when have we seen that before...lots), of some changes in the LR across most ensembles if not all. Need several more runs before I comment in depth, but interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 18z GEFS operational is now cold again after Thanksgiving with upslope snow that Saturday for the Smokies. Not a warm look, but let's be real....head fakes have been the norm. So, bout all I am going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 6z GEFS has flipped to a western ridge around 210 and holds, but we also know that model has a wicked bias as discussed last winter by John. Cold source is LACKING, so TIFWIW. Probably a window for a snowstorm in the interior NE just after Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Interesting. It seemed like the last couple of years everything tended to set up west of where the long range ensembles showed it. Those nice -EPOs would end up being over the Bering strait instead of AK. If the same holds this year, the overnight EPS would look similar to the GEFS, in terms of the sort of 500 mb pattern we might like. 0z EPS: 6z GEFS: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 The 6z GEFS "could" evolve to something better as the lower pressures move into the Aluetians. The 0z EPS would block any cold air from coming south even into southern Canada. We have seen this false signal from the GEFS over and over again, but it is worth noting that the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) had it first. The GFS often will catch trends more quickly, and even may jump the gun a bit. IStill need a few more runs before I buy the GEFS. ...12GFS has high elevation snow for the Plateau and Smokies for the Saturday after Thanksgiving. LONG way out, but just shows that the cold is now back(even if briefly). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 12z CMC will work. Man, feels like deja vu all over again watching the GEFS close off a low in the southwest with a MONSTER ridge over the top. One would think the CMC with the more progressive look is more likely right. Those runs really look like they could pop a -EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 To me that run of the 12 GFS is feeding back on that cutoff - for like six days! When have I said that before? LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 The Bering Sea giveth and taketh. If we keep a longer wavelength and +ABNA the Bering Sea trough is actually bearish. Above normal heights and temps northeast China and Canada. Mild much of Eastern China and the Eastern USA. Sorry I'm so bearish today. I do agree with some back door front action after Thanksgiving. Helps northeast Tenn. You know my forecast for KCHA, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 12z EPS quite a bit different than the Weeklies and their derived 0z run. Ensembles are blouncing around a bit where they had been locked. I do agree I don’t see a ton of cold delivery. That said, a well placed storm with the 12z EPS look(especially the control) might work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Definitely need wavelengths to shorten up. The EPS control seemed a bit better in that respect off the top of my head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 GEFS and EPS look pretty similar out in magical la la Land this AM. According to the GEFS we've hit the point where an airmass that is above average in Canada can = below average here. GEFS: EPS: all over 280 hours out in early Dec. Looks similar to what we kept seeing for the past 2 years at that time range. We will see if this year is any different. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Seeing continued changes in modeling today, especially ensembles. The Canadian operational and ensemble are most aggressive. Why do I mention the Canadian model? It "seemed" to be the first model to catch some changes that are now showing-up on other ensembles. Honestly, there are more changes than I have time to describe. If it continues at lunch, I will try to spend some more time discussing those changes. At this point the Euro Weeklies yesterday are almost on an island. Often we will see a great weeklies run, and then get abandoned by the 12z run - opposite for once. Note on Holston's animations above that one of the really big changes is in Alaska. IF that area of cold vacates that areas, that allows for an EPO ridge to build or maybe the EPO ridge just pushes it out of the way. I don't think this is a precursor to months of cold weather. What is being shown is typical Nina pattern stuff...cold start and very warm after that. Let's hope it verifies. I suspect this window(likely will be quite narrow from a time standpoint), might be our shot at winter. No idea if any of this holds. Been plenty of head fakes. Maybe one thing that gives me a bit more encouragement this time is that we aren't seeing a -NAO sig which initiates all of this. The -NAO has rarely verified. This time it is the western ridge that holds, and that is more realistic IMHO. Again, to be clear, going to need more cold air than what is being shown. Also, highly doubt the changes are over in modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I agree the window for cold (rain Chattanooga) will be brief. Looking after Thanksgiving. The pre-Thanksgiving system should be warm. I'm not buying severe though. Post-Thanksgiving system is cooler but lacks a cold air connection. Maybe the higher elevations. By then I'll be focused on college basketball. Finally! Looking into early December I see nothing interesting. Even if it's not as warm as shown, the +ABNA won't quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 The 12z GFS after 300, I will take it. Yeah, I know it is frowned upon to talk 300+ stuff for obvious reasons, especially with an operational run. But going to enjoy that for six more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 I am completely throwing all rules aside today as it is Friday, and virtual school for the day is over(we are on hybrid...today is the virtual part of that formula for us). If you have been doing virtual school with your kids, you will completely understand the need to enjoy the d10 Euro operational. I love my kids, but man...it is work. Anyway, as I wonder around to make my point....upslope snow potential at the end of that run. I don't care if it is there at midnight, but going to enjoy it now. No final drafts, no music submission stuff, no modules to complete...just LR weather. On a lighter note, we all realize that these great virtual platforms are about to turn our snow days into just more virtual learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Ya'll not only can I work my way around Wx maps and their many uses, but I have been honing my skills in Google Classroom, Canvas, Kahoot, ClassLink, and Aspen. 12z EPS now rolling. Let's see if the positive trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Better than an endless SE ridge: I wholeheartedly embrace any and all upslope opportunities. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Couple of interesting Tweets From Webber... In the category of every year is its own analog: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Eric Webb tees up 38 and rain for Chattanooga! Friday was our kid's last day in class. We pulled to online learning between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Data is pretty clear. Pattern recognition for the forecast is also. I'm mainly talking about the Chattanooga forecast, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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