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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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This is pretty cool being the end of June

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020

IDZ009-010-MTZ006-007-291800-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WW.Y.0046.200629T0600Z-200629T1800Z/
Western Lemhi County-Eastern Lemhi County-
Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains-Butte/Blackfoot Region-
222 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON MDT MONDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches. Locally higher amounts possible with 6
  inches of snow possible above 7500 feet.

* WHERE...Bannock Pass, Highway 28 Tendoy to Lone Pine, Lemhi
  Pass, Highway 93 Sula to Lost Trail Pass, and Georgetown Lake.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be affected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Mid-80s today in late afternoon in late June in Albuquerque. I'll take it! CFS continues to insist on a broadly cold West / hot East pattern for July.

Image

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6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Mid-80s today in late afternoon in late June in Albuquerque. I'll take it! CFS continues to insist on a broadly cold West / hot East pattern for July.

 

For eastern Colorado, the trend over the next week should be upwards-- possibly peaking at about 100 degrees on July 8th, but that is 9 days away.

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My guess is enough moisture will come up from the south to slow down the warm up on a couple of days, at least for parts of Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The models favored strong monsoon activity over the mountains of old Mexico in July, so any mechanism that can bring the moisture up efficiently should bring relief to particularly hot highs, even if it is just via cloudiness.

The GFS is pretty wet for eastern Colorado in particular over the next five days.

Image

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9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My guess is enough moisture will come up from the south to slow down the warm up on a couple of days, at least for parts of Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The models favored strong monsoon activity over the mountains of old Mexico in July, so any mechanism that can bring the moisture up efficiently should bring relief to particularly hot highs, even if it is just via cloudiness.

The GFS is pretty wet for eastern Colorado in particular over the next five days.

Image

Would love to see that but I'm very skeptical. Dry has been generally winning out- anytime moisture threatens to increase it gets squashed.

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My area had a couple of periods of rain, mostly associated the upper-level lift, and not much associated with higher CAPE. We had stratiform rain yesterday morning. Then, we had a very nice blue skies with a high temp of about 80 degrees and breeze to 15mph, with some cumulus clouds later. Then, at 11:30PM, we had this

 

y3jEcis.jpg

 

8ZGyn80.jpg

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:52 PM, raindancewx said:

My guess is enough moisture will come up from the south to slow down the warm up on a couple of days, at least for parts of Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The models favored strong monsoon activity over the mountains of old Mexico in July, so any mechanism that can bring the moisture up efficiently should bring relief to particularly hot highs, even if it is just via cloudiness.

The GFS is pretty wet for eastern Colorado in particular over the next five days.

 

Eastern Colorado should have some showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and I would suppose this will help keep temps below 95 for quite a few areas. I guess it is questionable if very much rainfall really hits the I-25 cities.

Fort Collins had +2.8F for June and my place in Loveland got 2.15" of rainfall.  The 1981-2010 average for Fort Collins is 2.17", so precipitation was normal compared to that climatological average. That's so close to normal, that it's very strange. It has been a very long time since I really had a normal-precipitation summer month with precipitation spread out nicely into different weeks.

2019-2020 snow statistics:

Fort Collins-CSU: 73.9"

my place: 79.9"

This was fairly similar to the snowy winter of 2012-2013, when snow slammed my area in March through May 2013. For 2019-2020, the timing of snow was quite different.

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Thanks Chinook, appreciate the weather stats.  My location (near Lory State Park NW of Fort Collins) also had pretty good rainfall for June.  As for this last snow season we had an abundance here in the northern foothills - in the 110”+ range.

Despite my hopes to the contrary (one can always hope), I’m getting the distinct feeling the summer will now heat up and dry out.  This has been the pattern for most of the last 20 years (2004 and 2009 stand out as exceptions).  At least June was reasonable though.... Coincidentally, this was also about the timeframe the Atlantic (AMO) shifted to its warm phase, where it’s mostly been since.  If that AMO would switch to a cool phase that might help cool the summers around here (and elsewhere).  That’s one theory at least.....

Another thing that has been noticeable the last several years is the lack of any robust monsoon pattern the second part of the summer (I’m talking about the front range).  I honestly don’t know why this is the case, I’ve just noticed it.

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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

My first spring in northeast Colorado and severe season has been a big dud

The duddiest since we arrived in 2010. It'll happen if you stick around long enough. Might come in September, who knows.

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From a buddy up here in Estes of the comet Neowise.  Photo was taken at 4:15am looking northeast, preceding the sun and roughly along the ecliptic.  He reported that it is very naked eye visible, and noted that it was washed out by the sun around 4:45am.

comet.jpg

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Not much good news with our weather pattern these days.  On the Bouldercast web site they are talking about the severity of the heat wave, which seems to be centered on Colorado. Also severe drought in southern Colorado that is now creeping north.  Also it appears that the Southwest US monsoon will be late or nonexistent (according to Bouldercast).  Then this fall La Niña is supposed to get established which tends to be dry in southern and eastern Colorado.  Oh boy - things turn quickly don’t they :( ?

 

 

 

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On 7/9/2020 at 10:55 AM, ValpoVike said:

From a buddy up here in Estes of the comet Neowise.  Photo was taken at 4:15am looking northeast, preceding the sun and roughly along the ecliptic.  He reported that it is very naked eye visible, and noted that it was washed out by the sun around 4:45am.

comet.jpg

Wow!! Can't wait till it's visible in the evening.

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It got up to 96 to 101 degrees in the Front Range cities, including 98.5 degrees at my house. I put my indoor thermometer outside, in the shade, on the north side of the house, so it didn't get any contribution from direct sunlight. 101 at KFNL airport, 99 at Denver.

 

9idrK7W.jpg

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