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Roger Smith

December 2019 temperature forecast contest

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Provisional scoring reveals that the contest will be very close going into the final month. As always, predict the temperature anomalies for these locations relative to 1981-2010 normal values (in F deg).

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

The usual deadline, with the Thanksgiving holiday landing late, I am expecting some later entries, will be lenient especially if you're not in the hunt. Have a great Thanksgiving by the way. (we did that back in October up here)

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 0.7     -0.3      -0.3       2.6      0.7     2.4         0.3      0.4      0.6

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Okay, everyone made it on time, so here goes nothing ...

--2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 _ 0.0 __ --1.7

Good luck and check back for updates to the anomaly tracker. 

Winter snowfall contest entries are posted in the Nov thread. I will move that into the January thread but leave it over there during December with some updates on actual amounts (DEN has already had quite a bit of snow). 

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Forecasts for December 2019

For your interest, I have posted points differential against the current contest leader, RodneyS and also wxdude64 who is 40 points behind going into this month ... this tells you how many points more or less you could score relative to RodneyS and wxdude64 if you're right on or they are right on with forecasts. Actual values "outside" your forecast (e.g. you're predicting lower and it's even lower than your prediction) will count full value in this regard unless the anomalies get very large, then we could get into factored scoring systems. End of month anomaly values between the two forecasts being compared will have reduced impact on the differential. Chances are quite high there won't be this much separation in points either way (you're generally closer or the leader is generally closer to outcomes -- one or two will perhaps work against the rest). Note the three highest scores from November's annual update are all separated enough to give them leverage on each other. Should be an interesting conclusion to a great contest year. (note, it is possible but unlikely that you could gain more points than shown here if some stations go to max-60 scoring, but with the two leaders likely to score medium numbers of points in those cases, very unlikely that the math would work for anybody if that happens). With my colder forecasts, almost the entire field can pass me (currently third and 96 points behind RodneyS and 56 behind wxdude64) if I'm out to lunch (and it is lunch time). :)

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ pts diff (1st, 2nd)

 

 BKViking __________________+1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +0.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ 262, 168

wxdude64 _________________+1.7 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ 122, 000

DonSutherland.1 ___________+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ___ 134, 052

Scotty Lightning ____________+1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 114, 120

hudsonvalley21 ____________+0.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ +0.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.8 ___ +1.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 ___ 230, 168

___ Consensus _____________ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ____ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ 108, 094

wxallannj __________________ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +1.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 ___ 172, 162

RodneyS ___________________ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ --0.3 ___ +2.6 _ +0.7 _ +2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.6 ___ 000, 122

Tom _______________________ +0.5 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ 134, 168

Jakkelwx ___________________+0.3 _ --0.2 _ --0.7 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +0.5 _ +2.1 ___ 224, 286

___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 166, 200

Roger Smith _______________ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 ___ 0.0 _ --1.7 ___ 546, 552

======================================================================================

Consensus is the median value, or mean of 5th and 6th ranked forecasts out of ten received. 

Welcome back Jakkelwx, and good luck everybody. 

__ Snowfall contest will be updated in place in the November thread __

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Updates on anomalies and forecasts ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (7d) __________ 0.0 _ --5.3 _ --4.8 ___ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +3.2 ___ +3.3 _ +3.2 _ +5.5

_______ (14d) _________+0.6 _ --1.3 _ +0.3 ___ +2.5 _ +2.4 _ +3.9 ___ +4.1 _ +3.3 _ +5.1

_______ (21d) _________--0.4 _ --2.7 _ --0.8 ___ +1.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 ___ +4.1 _ +2.1 _ +5.0

_______ (28d) _________+1.2_ +0.2 _ +1.8 ___ +5.4 _ +5.1 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +1.3  _ +3.7

 

_______ (p14d) _______ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0

_______ (p21d) _______ --0.4 _ --1.6 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 _ +2.6 ___ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +4.0

_______ (p28d) _______ +2.2 _ +0.3 _ +1.1 ___ +6.0 _ +7.0 _ +4.0 ___ +6.0 _ +0.5 _ +3.0

 

_______ (p24d) ________ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0

15th___(p31d)________ +1.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0

22nd __ (p31d) _______ +2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +4.0 ___ +6.0 _ +0.5 _ +3.0

29th __ (p31d) ________+2.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.8 _ +0.5 _ +3.5

Final anomalies ______ +2.4 _+0.8 _+2.5 ___ +6.3 _ +5.9 _ +3.2 ___ +3.7 _ +0.7 _ +3.9

 

(8th) _ The following week looks quite variable with very mild followed by quite cold and back to milder before the end. Then the interval from the 15th to 24th looks rather cold in the east and near normal in the west. I went with some rather conservative assumptions in these projections. Really all forecasts seem to have some chance at this point. 

(15th) _ The forecasts for the past week were reasonably good and averaged an error of 1.1 deg. The coming week is looking somewhat colder than average, on balance, after a mild start in some eastern and central locations. It appears likely to remain rather mild in the west. Then the outlook period (22nd to 31st) from GFS looks generally mild and the provisionals shown are probably a bit conservative from that guidance. The days leading up to Christmas may be well into the 60s in the eastern states. There is a bit of a return to colder weather near the end of the run. I need me to be wrong. :)

(22nd) _ The past week's forecast verified quite well (0.67 avg error). The coming week is expected to be very mild in the eastern and central states, rather cool for PHX and closer to average in SEA. The three days not covered by that outlook appear rather cold in the east and warming through the period in central states.

I may post some provisional scoring tomorrow. Looks like I have gone too cold to have any chance, so it will be a battle of the Mid Atlantic men RodneyS and wxdude64. 

(29th) _ Watch for the grand finale of our close contest in the coming days. I won't spoil the suspense with preliminary scoring, we'll just go with the final results on New Years Day (and not necessarily all that early). Jan 2020 thread is available if you would like to continue.

(31st - 1st) _ Overnight and on New Year's Day I will be updating the anomalies and the provisional scoring below. When I am finished that post, the annual results will be next up. The battle for first place is extremely close. The anomalies posted above are now all confirmed. 

 

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Final Scoring for December 2019

(ORD and ATL required rank-ordered scoring based on a max of 60 as raw scores were considerably lower. DEN came close to the same result but has some raw scores in the low 60s. SEA had one score that prevented rank-ordered scoring. However, if we had gone to that, most raw scores would have been higher than the progression anyway. One score at ATL is a raw score rather than the rank-ordered value (7 instead of 4). 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

 

wxallannj __________________ 66 _ 96 _ 58 ___ 220 __ 53^_ 60^_ 90 ___ 205 __ 423 __ 64 _ 68 _ 46 ___ 178 ____601

BKViking __________________ 86 _ 82 _ 82 ___ 250 __ 18^_ 53^_ 56 ___ 129 __ 377 __ 64 _ 92 _ 48 ___ 204 ____ 581

DonSutherland.1 ___________82 _100_ 60 ___ 242 __ 39^_ 46^_ 80 ___ 167 __ 407 __ 50 _ 96 _ 26 ___ 172 ____ 579

hudsonvalley21 ____________70 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 242 __ 25^_ 39^_ 72 ___ 138 __ 378 __ 58 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 172 ____ 550

wxdude64 _________________86 _ 94 _ 60 ___ 240 __ 46^_ 39^_ 76 ___ 163 __ 401 __ 34 _ 96 _ 16 ___ 146 ____ 547

___ Consensus _____________ 68 _ 96 _ 54 ___ 218 __ 29^_ 29^ _ 70 ___ 130 __ 346 __ 36 _ 96 _ 36 ___ 168 ____ 514

RodneyS ___________________66 _ 78 _ 44 ___ 188 __ 60^_ 07 _ 84 ___ 151 __ 339 __ 32 _ 94 _ 34 ___ 160 ____ 499

Scotty Lightning ___________ 72 _ 94 _ 50 ___ 216 __ 32^_ 25^_ 66 ___ 125 __ 339 __ 26 _ 94 _ 32 ___ 152 ____ 491

Tom _______________________ 62 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 200 __ 11^_ 11 _ 58 ___ 080 __ 280 __ 38 _ 90 _ 38 ___ 166 ____ 446

Jakkelwx __________________ 58 _ 80 _ 36 ___ 174 __ 04^_ 25^_ 40 ___ 071 __ 243 __ 00 _ 96 _ 64 ___ 160 ____ 403

___ Normal _________________52 _ 84 _ 50 ___ 186 __ 15^_  00 _ 36 ___ 053 __ 237 __ 26 _ 86 _ 22 ___ 134 ____ 371

Roger Smith _______________ 00 _ 34 _ 00 ___ 034 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 __ 034 __ 00 _ 86 _ 00 ___ 086 ____ 120

========================================================================================

Extreme forecast report

Seven of the nine locations had an extreme forecast high score, all for warmest forecast at locations. 

BKViking tied for wins at DCA, BOS and DEN.

Wxdude64 tied for DCA, hudsonvalley21 for BOS, and wxallannj for DEN.

Wxallannj also had wins at ATL and IAH. 

RodneyS had a win for ORD. 

Jakkelwx had the win at SEA, and among regular entrants, wins are also awarded there to BKViking and hudsonvalley21

NYC (+0.8) ended up closer to our consensus than the highest forecasts. 

PHX (+0.7) ended up close to our consensus but there wasn't much spread in forecasts, a result of +0.2 would have made coldest forecast tied for high score.

===========================================================================================

(The annual update will be published when this table is finalized and checked. The difference between first and second at this point is less than 10 points. 

Meanwhile, I managed to drop from third to seventh by going way too cold. And yet I have snow, so there is that. )

 

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< Final results ... The total scores for 1st and 2nd place are only 8 points apart. Given the number of points, and forecasts made over the year, in scientific terms this amounts to a tie, I wish we had a more decisive result but it is what it is, and congratulations to both wxdude64 and RodneyS for a great year of forecasting. I will go over everything to verify this close result, but in terms of the November totals being valid and December scoring accurate, I found no errors there, so will be checking back over the tables, will confirm or amend as necessary within a day or so. Scoring is backed up by an excel file, if there are any errors they will be more likely transcription than scoring errors. >

 

<<<<< =====  ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Dec 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

  

 A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 wxdude64 ____________825 _950 _779 __2554 __724 _666_885__2275 __4829 __ 671 _850 _764 __2285 ___7114 

RodneyS ______________731 _892 _787__2410 __716 _687 _914__2317 __4727 __ 755 _852 _772 __ 2379___ 7106

___ Consensus ________777_ 950 _810 __2537__672 _682 _884 __2238 __4775 __ 625 _860 _780__2265 ____7040

DonSutherland.1 ______709 _924 _729 __2362 __663 _710 _920 __2293 __4655 __ 631 _902_ 794__2327____ 6982

wxallannj _____________757 _860 _840 __2457 __612 _749 _862 __2223 __ 4680__ 585 _844 _774 __2203____ 6883

BKViking _____________ 802 _899 _830 __2531 __617 _606 _807 __2030 __4561 __ 593 _815 _788 __2196 ____6757*

hudsonvalley21 _______716 _948 _886 __2550 __600 _698 _856 __2154 __4704 __ 449 _832 _728 __2009____ 6713

Roger Smith __________ 776 _834 _750 __2360__641 _609 _770 __2020 __4380 __ 746 _808 _704 __2258 ____6638

Scotty Lightning_______707 _890 _785 __2382 __637 _667 _878 __2182 __4564 __ 459 _784 _642 __1885 ____6449

Tom __________________615 _837 _687 __2139 __651 _553 _860 __2064 __4203 __ 559 _834 _739 __2132 ____6335

 ___ Normal ___________492 _840 _670 __2002 __613 _430 _804 __1847 __3849 __ 470 _823 _569__1862 ____5711

Stebo (4/12) __________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225

RJay (4/12) ___________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083

Jakkelwx (2/12) _______150 __148 __ 66 __ 364 __ 54 _107 _108 __ 269 ___ 633 ___ 80 _186 _152 ___ 418 ___ 1051

tplbge (1/12) ___________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684

Orangeburgwx (1/12) ___ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____682 

smerby (1/12) __________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___ 50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660

 

 _______________________________________________________________________

* with 180 points deducted for late penalties over the contest year, total would have been 6937, no other regulars

would have moved up to a different rank with their smaller late penalties added in. 

 

 Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

 _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). In Dec, BKViking and hudsonvalley add one win (SEA) where jakkelwx (2nd contest entered) had a higher score.

_ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

  

wxdude64 (24) _________ 3 ___0 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___2*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___2 ___3 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

RodneyS (29) __________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 4 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

 ___Consensus (5) ______1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland.1 (17) ___0 ___2 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___2 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^

wxallannj (19) __________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___4 ___2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ DEC 

BKViking (8) ____________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1*___1*___2 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 (14) ____ 1 ___4 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2*___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith (42) ________6 ___2 ___2 ____ 5 ____ 4 ___4 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 3 __ JUL, SEP, NOV

Scotty Lightning (14) ____ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ AUG

Tom (10) _______________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0

___ Normal (10) ________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 Stebo (5) ______________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

 RJay (3) _______________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 jakkelwx (4) ___________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 0

Orangeburgwx (7) ______ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT

smerby (2) _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

The number in brackets beside forecaster names shows total best forecasts. 

 __________________________________________________________________________________

  

Extreme forecasts  

  

FINAL STANDINGS for 2019

 

Roger Smith _________27-8 (3 _/)

RodneyS ____________ 13-5

wxallannj ____________11-2

wxdude64 ___________ 9-0

DonSutherland1 ______8-0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 7-1 (1 _/)

BKViking ____________ 6-0**^%

Scotty Lightning ______6-1

Normal ______________ 6-1

Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2

Tom _________________ 4-1

Stebo ________________3-1

Jakkelwx ____________ 2-0

RJay ________________ 1-0

tplbge _______________1-0

 

 *retained as Jakkelwx played fewer than three.

 ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) 

^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason.

% also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason.

_/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley21 (BOS) same reason for symbol.

... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. 

... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).

 

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Congratulations to wxdude64, who appears to have caught me at the wire when I bobbed my head. ;)  As always, the great majority of the credit belongs to Roger for organizing the contest and doing the bookkeeping.  I'll give it another try in 2020, as long as Roger continues to do the heavy lifting. :)

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You may have bobbed your head but I think I lost both shoes and ran into the guy who rings the bell for the last lap or maybe just took a javelin in the back. :)

 

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Oh wow! lol OK, I never thought I'd win with the warmth in SEA.... I'll second what Rodney said, all the credit goes to Roger for doing all the hard stuff, we just pick numbers. And I think with only 8 points separation it basically was a tie, Rodney!

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32 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Oh wow! lol OK, I never thought I'd win with the warmth in SEA.... I'll second what Rodney said, all the credit goes to Roger for doing all the hard stuff, we just pick numbers. And I think with only 8 points separation it basically was a tie, Rodney!

Basically,  but as Al Gore can tell you, there is a big difference between narrowly winning and narrowly losing. :lol:

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