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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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I agree great moisture from this storm!  I’m in the foothills northwest of Fort Collins - we got about 8.5” of snow and pretty good rain before the snow started (probably .5  - 1.0 “)

 

This storm was just perfect - great moisture but not an excessive amount of snow/ damage that people just need to deal with right now.

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There is likely going to be some mixed rain/snow for our area on Friday/Saturday morning, with the potential for heavy snow at Estes Park.

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Temperatures on the Colorado plains range from lower 40s to 80 degrees. Stratus clouds filled in northeast Colorado earlier today.

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3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Big bust on the snow forecast for NE Colorado.  Some were even expecting it to bust high, ended up busting low

So, what happened then? I'm seeing reports of 1.5" to 2.5" on the southern side of Denver.

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April looks like a much more interesting than March, I think we all got a bit spoiled last month. There was a sh-t load of moisture in the Southwest this month, it just missed south of me, unlike in late November.

The CFS has trended very cold for April in the West, except for where I am. We'll see where it ends up - it usually has some skill for the next month this close to it.

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Models show some snow for us on Thursday- Friday, particularly Fort Collins to Cheyenne. Once again, the GFS is showing higher values for SE Wyoming (although that didn't work out very well last time.)

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The Canadian actually had a very good forecast for March on Feb 29th - new outlook from them should be out tomorrow. Definitely beat the CFS -

Image

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The forecast big -NAO is actually pretty consistent with the cold West the CFS has for April. The wet signal for the CO/WY border is there too. The CFS map is actually pretty close to what I forecast in my Spring Outlook from February, just a bit colder everywhere.

Image

Image

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The latest GFS says it will be 28 degrees and snowy for me at 6:00PM Thursday. That's just too cold for 6:00PM, seriously.

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The GFS and the UKMET are still holding on to the forecast of several inches of snow at Larimer/Boulder Counties. The NWS expects > 3" above ~8000ft in Larimer County and areas closer to Casper, WY. It'll be a shocker, for sure. At my area, we had 70 degrees today.

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I think my place got 1.63" of precipitation in March, and 5.3" of snow. This is a slightly above average value of precipitation, even though Fort Collins-CSU got a little below average. Temperatures were just a bit above normal. This time of year generally the day of the maximum snowpack depth in Colorado, so I thought I might post some maps.

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There have been 24-hr temperature change values of -41 to -51 degrees F between Denver,  western Nebraska, and Cheyenne.

tOvXQPj.png

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Been impressively cold in Montana so far. Sometimes Apr-May is a good hint for the Fall - will have to keep watching how the month unfolds.

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The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are starting to agree on snow for Sunday and Monday, possible lows in the mid-20's Tuesday morning. It's unseasonable, but I guess there are no leaves on the trees just yet.

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15 hours ago, Chinook said:

The ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are starting to agree on snow for Sunday and Monday, possible lows in the mid-20's Tuesday morning. It's unseasonable, but I guess there are no leaves on the trees just yet.

Long as it doesn't get below 20 it should be fine... the buds are starting to come out and it would be nice to see flowers and fruit, especially this year. We've had too many 15 degree mornings in April the past few years.

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On 4/7/2020 at 10:15 AM, mayjawintastawm said:

Long as it doesn't get below 20 it should be fine... the buds are starting to come out and it would be nice to see flowers and fruit, especially this year. We've had too many 15 degree mornings in April the past few years.

I actually saw a mosquito up here on my deck last night.  That is super rare any time of the year.

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For our snowstorm, model QPF values are 0.4" to 0.8" for the plains,  1.0"-1.30" for mountains. I am pretty sure that winter storm warnings will be issued for areas of Wyoming, Nebraska, and the Colorado mountains above 9000ft. Northeast Colorado could get a winter weather advisory or possibly even a winter storm warning. Powering up this system, a shortwave trough in a strong northwesterly flow out of northern Canada. You could say that this is an arctic air mass in central Canada. Canada is usually some 25 degrees F warmer at this time of year.

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Euro has been showing a pretty good snow storm for New Mexico on its last few runs. The timing is pretty consistent with the huge SOI crash early month, and also the 3.5 month lag to the late December system. Still amazes me that since I've lived in Albuquerque we've had more snow in the city in April than in March, but, it looks like 1-3" is possible here if temps are cold enough and the wind cooperates. Haven't looked in detail yet though, since location for the precip shield will continue to change.

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We must have had some interesting variation in snow rates. Loveland got 1" to 5.8" on CoCoRAHS. I had something like 1" -- some grass poking above the snow.

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