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Roger Smith

October 2019 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for
 
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
DCA: +2.1
NYC: +2.5
BOS: +2.3
ORD : -1.1
ATL : + 3.0
IAH: -.7
DEN: -2.6
PHX : -.9
SEA: -3.2


Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.3       1.2      0.3        2.3      2.6     2.9         0.7      0.6      -0.1 

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Table of forecasts for October 2019

 

FORECASTER ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

wxdude64 ______________________________ +2.5 _ +1.7 _ +0.7 ___ +0.3 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7 

hudsonvalley21 _________________________ +2.4 _ +2.6 _ +2.1 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ +1.0

DonSutherland.1 ________________________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.4 ___ +0.5 _ +3.0 _ +1.3 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ --1.0

RodneyS ________________________________ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.9 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ --0.1

Orangeburgwx __________________________ +2.1 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 ___ --1.1 _ +3.0 _ --0.7 ___ --2.6 _ --0.9 _ --3.2

___ Consensus __________________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ____ +0.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ____ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ --1.2

wxallannj _______________________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ --1.4

BKViking _______ (-1%) ___________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ --1.7

Roger Smith _____________________________+1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5

Tom ____________________________________ +1.1 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 ___ --0.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ --0.6 _ +1.2 _ --0.1

Scotty Lightning _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

___ Normal _______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

====================================================================================

Welcome back Orangeburgwx. 

Consensus for 10 forecasts is mean of 5th and 6th ranked.

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, note that Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC and BOS. 

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So nice to be able to work at a normally fast speed on this website again, so here's the picture after one week of October ... and it's cold out west, snowing outside my place right now (I am near 4,000 feet up a hill in southern BC but it's quite early for this elevation to get snow, surrounding peaks of 7-8k feet are covered from the last event we had in late September when a foot of snow fell nearby) ...

______________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_ 8th ______________ (7d) ______________+8.9 _ +3.6 _ +1.4 ___+3.3 _+13.2 _+6.9 ___ --1.4 _ --0.3 _ --1.4

_15th _____________ (14d) ____________ +6.3 _ +2.9 _ +1.8 ___+0.8 _ +9.1 _ +3.5 ___ --3.8 _ --0.2 _ --2.9

_22nd _____________ (21d) ____________+4.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.8e___+0.6 _ +5.8 _ +3.0 ___ --2.8 _ +0.3 _ --1.8

_29th _____________ (28d) ____________ +4.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ --0.4 _ +5.1 _ +1.3 ___ --4.8 _ +0.1 _ --1.5

 

_ 8th _____________ (p14d) ____________ +2.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.3 ___+1.8 _ +7.5 _ +3.8 ___ --1.5 _ --2.7 _ --1.6

_15th _____________ (p21d) ___________ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.7 ___ --0.5 _ +0.2 _ --2.0

_22nd _____________ (p28d) ___________+3.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +4.3 _ +1.8 ___ --2.0 _ +0.8 _ --0.8

 

_ 8th _____________ (p24d) ____________ +1.5 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +4.5 _+2.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _ --1.5

_22nd ____________ (p31d) ____________+2.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5

_29th _____________ (p31d) ___________ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 ___ --1.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.0 ___ --7.0 _ --1.0 _ --2.0

_ 1 Nov ___ final anomalies ___________ +4.6 _ +3.0_ +3.4 ___ --1.6 _ +5.1 _ +0.3___ -7.2 _ --0.9 _ --2.0

 

The results of the Seasonal Max contest have bee posted in the September thread.

8th _ After a very warm start in the eastern and central regions, the coming week looks more variable so the large positive anomalies will be reduced or largely voided. The west has been running rather cool and this trend appears likely to continue for the coming week. The outlook period from GFS guidance 15th to 24th appears near normal in the east, perhaps a little below normal in central regions, with a warming trend indicated for PHX and DEN, not so much for SEA however. Projections are based on rather conservative estimates a little below average in the east to perhaps 2-3 above in the west. 

15th _ Forecast verification was relatively poor, the amount of cold air arriving in central regions was well predicted but it tended to modify faster than expected when it reached the east coast. The average error was therefore 1.9 F deg (generally too cold by that amount). This coming week appears rather close to average in many areas but a bit warmer than average due to a very warm start for DEN, and later warmth in PHX. The extension of the forecast from day 8 to 16 (GFS) proceeds on the assumption of -3 anomalies in the eastern and central regions, including DEN, and slightly above normal in PHX and SEA. These may be rather conservative numbers given the outflow of very cold air from the arctic into the Great Lakes region during the period. Based on -6 anomalies the eastern stations could end up below normal despite current healthy positives. ATL and IAH will be cut back into our forecast range and ORD could fall lower than shown here as well. Our lowest ORD forecast is -1.1. The current scoring estimate for consensus from the provisionals posted above would be 762/900 so there could be some high scoring this month. Will post provisional scoring after 21st update and better handle on end of month changes. 

22nd _ This past week the forecasts recovered to a more normal outcome with the average error only 0.5 deg, and DEN accounted for about half of that. This coming week looks rather average in the east and a bit warmer than normal in the west. The last three days of the month are looking very cold in the eastern and central regions and mild out west. Only the DCA provisional has been changed for the preliminary scoring posted a few days ago. It will evidently fall a bit less than anticipated but all these late month decreases are of course subject to the usual GFS caveat about overdoing cold outbreaks that far in advance. 

29th _ The past week's forecasts were somewhat off due to the larger ridge-trough signature that developed towards the end of the week. The average error was just over 1.0 deg. However, the projections based on the 8-10d GFS last week have proven to be way out, as the cold air is trapped in central regions and not making a move east until near end of the month. This has resulted in a considerable increase in provisionals for the four stations in the eastern time zone, little change needed for ORD and IAH, but severe cold has set in out west and looks locked in for a few more days, so all three western locations have seen a drop (DEN has snow cover too so the cold is biting with -30 anomalies yesterday and expected the next two days). The chill will extend to PHX and SEA (currently 15 F outside my house in south-central BC). Provisional scoring will be fixed and then some annual scoring updates can be posted later today (may not get to that until evening). 

Nov 1st _ All final anomalies have now been posted. Scoring will be adjusted until it's finalized by 16z. Check back after that on Friday Nov 1st to see the final results -- you will see table headers change wording to final (from provisional) scoring when all is completed. Looks like the scoring race has tightened up with leader RodneyS losing some ground to DonS and wxdude64. Could be an epic finish this year. A few others are not quite out of the hunt yet, all depends on how November turns out as I see there's a good spread of predictions there. 

 

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Final scoring for October, 2019

^ Scoring for DEN uses the "maximum 60" rule and all scores are boosted. DCA qualified for this also (highest raw score was 58) but only the top score was improved by the minimum progression so all other scores are natural since they are higher than the mercy rule method. ATL scores were also subject to the max 60 although the two top scores went up only one point from 59 to 60 and all the rest were higher by the regular scoring procedure anyway.

 

FORECASTER _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

Orangeburgwx __________________________ 50 _ 90 _ 78 __ 218 __ 88 60^_ 80 ___ 228 __ 446 __ 60^_100_ 76 ___236 _____ 682 

DonSutherland.1 ________________________ 56 _ 84 _ 60 __ 200 __ 56 _ 60^_ 80 ___196 __ 396 __ 42^_ 68 _ 80 ___ 190 _____ 586

wxdude64 ______________________________ 60^_ 74 _ 46 __ 180 __ 60 _ 47 _ 78 ___ 185 __ 365 __ 36^_ 76 _ 94 ___ 206 _____ 571  

BKViking _______ (-1%) __________________ 36 _69*_ 51*__ 156 __ 55*_ 41 _ 85*___ 181 __ 337 __ 36^_ 75*_ 93*__ 204 _____ 541

___ Consensus __________________________ 46 _ 68 _ 49 ___ 162 __ 56 _ 49 _ 82 ___ 187 __ 349 __ 36^_ 68 _ 84 ___ 188 ______ 537

wxallannj _______________________________ 42 _ 64 _ 50 __ 156 __ 52 _ 49 _ 82 ___ 183 __ 339 __ 24^_ 64 _ 88 ___ 176 _____ 515

Roger Smith ____________________________ 32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 74 _ 00 _ 64 ___ 138 __ 260 __ 54^_ 98 _ 90 ___ 242 _____ 502

hudsonvalley21 _________________________ 56 _ 92 _ 74 __ 222 __ 56 _ 29 _ 82 ___ 167 __ 389 __ 06^_ 60 _ 40 ___ 106 _____ 495 

Tom ____________________________________ 30 _ 50 _ 34 __ 114 __ 70 _ 17 _ 94 ___ 181 __ 295 __ 48^_ 58 _ 62 ___ 168 _____ 463

RodneyS ________________________________ 54 _ 64 _ 38 __ 156 __ 20 _ 51 _ 48 ___ 119 __ 275 __ 24^_ 70 _ 62 ___ 156 _____ 431

___ Normal ______________________________08 _ 40 _ 32 __ 080 __ 66 _ 00 _ 94 ___ 160 __ 240 __ 45^_ 82 _ 60 ___ 187 _____ 427 

Scotty Lightning _________________________28 _ 60 _ 42 __ 130 __ 56 _ 19 _ 76 ___ 151 __ 281 __ 12^_ 52 _ 60 ___ 124 _____ 405

====================================================================================

* = 1% late penalty deductions

^ (DEN) scoring by rule of maximum score 60, top raw score was only 30 there.

 DCA only top score needed adjustment from 58 to 60, all other raw scores higher than minimum progression,

 ATL also subject to same method as anomaly +5.1 but once again only top scores marginally boosted from 59 to 60.. 

 

Extreme Forecasts

All locations are now in the running for an extreme forecast. 

DCA (+4.6) goes to wxdude64 (+2.5) for the win.

NYC (+3.0) goes to hudsonvalley21 (+2.6) for the win. 

BOS (+3.4) goes to Orangeburgwx (+2.3) and hudsonvalley21 (+2.1) as full-time participant.

ORD (-1.7) goes to Orangeburgwx (-1.1) and Roger Smith (-0.4) as full-time participant.

ATL (+5.1) goes to DonSutherland1 and Orangeburgwx (tied +3.0).

IAH (+0.3) has dropped close to qualifying zone, will count it (among only regulars, would be a win for Tom and loss for Roger Smith but Orangeburgwx had a lower forecast that would usually disqualify the outcome as high score belongs to third coldest forecast. Also Normal would get a win on this outcome.So it will be shared wins for Tom and Normal, shared loss for Roger S and Orangeburgwx.

DEN (-7.2) goes to Orangeburgwx (-2.6) and Roger Smith (-2.0) as full-time participant.

PHX (-0.9) counts as a win for both Orangeburgwx (-0.9) and Roger Smith (-1.0). 

SEA (-2.0) goes to wxdude64 (-1.7) with Orangeburgwx taking a loss (-3.2) and BKV a "no decision" (-1.7, late pen).

 

 

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<<<<< =====  ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Oct 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

  

 A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

(note edit on Nov 23 was to fix errors in Consensus which was not updated when the rest of the scores were updated).

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

  

RodneyS ______________609 _760 _667__2036 __617 _592 _778__1987__4023 __ 641 _688 _658 __ 1987___ 6010

 

___ Consensus ________673_ 818 _682 __2173__618 _581 _758 __1957 __4130 __ 541 _676 _650 __1867 ____5997

 

DonSutherland.1 _______607 _810 _607 __2024 __595 _592 _772 __1959 __3983 __ 547 _712_ 686__1945____ 5928

wxdude64 _____________677 _796 _635 __2108 __645 _533 _729 __1907 __ 4015 __ 561 _670 _656 __1887 ___5902

Roger Smith ___________ 692 _722 _670 __2084 __576 _515 _700 __1791 __3875 __ 678 _648 _638 __1964____5839

wxallannj ______________655 _736 _712 __2103 __534 _643 _734 __1911 __ 4014__ 481 _678 _646 __1805____ 5819

hudsonvalley21 ________632 _754 _752__2238 __575 _603 _754 __1932 __4170 __ 365 _672 _582 __1619____ 5789

BKViking ______________ 682 _789 _682 __2153 __580 _515 _705 __1800 __3953 __ 481 _629 _644 __1754 ____5707

Scotty Lightning________585 _752 _655 __1992 __580 _592 _738 __1910 __3902 __ 385 _616 _524 __1525 ____5427

Tom ___________________517 _715 _561 __1793 __623 _454 _746 __1823 __3616 __ 459 _656 _607 __1722 ____5338

 ___ Normal ____________ 410 _732 _560 __1702 __598 _360 _714 __1672 __3374 __ 386 _683 _471__1540 ____4914

Stebo (4/10) ___________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225

RJay (4/10) ____________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083

tplbge (1/10) ____________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684

Orangeburgwx (1/10) ____ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____ 682 

smerby (1/10) ___________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660

Jakkelwx (1/10) _________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___ 390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 ___ 258 ____ 648

 _______________________________________________________________________

 

 Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

 _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). 

_ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).

  

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

  

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

 ___Consensus__________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland.1 ________0 ___1 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^

wxdude64 ______________ 2 ___0 ___0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___0 ___1*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

Roger Smith ____________ 5 ___1 ___2 ____ 4 ____ 3 ___3 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ JUL, SEP

wxallannj _______________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _________ 1 ___4 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

BKViking ________________0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0

Scotty Lightning ________ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG

Tom ____________________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Orangeburgwx _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT

smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 jakkelwx _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

 

 __________________________________________________________________________________

  

Extreme forecasts  

  

 STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

Roger Smith _________23-7 (3 _/)

RodneyS ____________ 11-4

DonSutherland1 ______ 8-0

wxallannj ____________ 7-2

Scotty Lightning ______6-1

Normal ______________ 6-1

wxdude64 ___________ 5-0

hudsonvalley21 _______5-0 (1 _/)

Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2

Tom _________________ 4-1

Stebo ________________3-1

BKViking ____________ 2-0*^%

 RJay ________________ 1-0

 tplbge _______________1-0

 Jakkelwx ____________1-0

 *retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.

 ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) 

^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason.

% also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason.

_/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley (BOS) same reason for symbol.

... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. 

... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).

 

 ______________________________________________________________________________

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Scoring is now fully updated. Congrats to Orangeburgwx for coming back and cleaning house in October. 

The annual scoring race has tightened up considerably with DonS and wxdude64 making upward moves and narrowing their deficits behind leader RodneyS. 

There was only a slight addition to BKV's annual late penalty total, which added five points to reach a total of 180. With those points added, BKV would be in fourth place. 

Wxdude64 has an annual total of 14 so that would move him to within 12 points of second place DonS, With both scores adjusted BKV would then be 27 points behind wxdude64.

Tom is the only other active participant with any late penalties and those points (46) would not be enough to move him past Scotty Lightning. 

-- So it's on to November and I see all nine of us have on-time forecasts that are spread out a fair bit so there will likely be some scrambling of scores for some this month. 

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