Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

[ncforecaster89]

13 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor.

The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).

 

Agree on all accounts.  Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years.  Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

[Floydbuster]

57 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Agree on all accounts.  Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years.  Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

You and Josh may be interested in this:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1

 

Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

[Windspeed]

You and Josh may be interested in this: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1   Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

That's a mean for projected return. It doesn't suggest we are due in another 10-20 years, only that per climatological average, a sub-900 mb landfall occurs within a spread of 102 years. There could be more or less years, or even 300 years between such events. I would need to read the paper in more detail on how they came up with those means. The 265-yr mean seems much too large to me however these are modeled datasets from projections and not historical observations since we do not have measurements prior to the 1800s. There are only a few estimated examples of such strong tempests prior to that due to captain logs or governing records.

[ncforecaster89]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

You and Josh may be interested in this:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1

 

Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States.

"The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts."

 

Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island.

I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.

Thanks so much for sharing the link and summarization of the paper.   If it occurs during my lifetime, I will most certainly be there to document it, as well!

[Windspeed]

McLean's Town, one of the communities in eastern Grand Bahama. It's pretty much what you would expect.

[Normandy Ho]

Hate to gravedig but like I said in the 2021 Atlantic tropical thread this video is required viewing

https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs