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Roger Smith

August 2019 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

On time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday August 1st. 

Good luck !!

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DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +0.9

ORD:  -0.2

ATL:  +0.6

IAH:  +0.5

DEN:  -0.5

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  +1.6

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DCA:  +1.4

NYC:  +1.1

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:  -0.5

ATL:  +0.4

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.2

PHX:  +1.3

SEA:  +2.2

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.4      1.2     0.9       0.2     0.5     0.5      -0.3     0.3    1.5

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.6      1.1     1.5       0.6    -0.3     0.6       1.0     1.0     0.8

 
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Late! Darn! 

 

DCA:  +1.9

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +0.8

 IAH:  +1.5

DEN:  +1.8

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +2.9

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Table of forecasts for August 2019

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith ________________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+1.2 ___ +3.7 _+2.1 _+3.0

BKViking _____ (-8%) ________ +1.9 _+2.2 _+2.1 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _+2.9

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +1.6 _+1.9 _+1.9 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.8 _+1.8

DonSutherland1 _____________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+0.9 ___ +0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ --0.3 _+0.3 _+1.5

wxallannj ___________________+1.4 _+1.1 _+1.4 ___ --0.5 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _+2.2

 

___ Consensus ______________ +1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ +0.4 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.1 _+1.8

 

wxdude64 __________________ +1.2 _+1.2 _+1.5 ___ --0.1 _+0.7 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _+1.9

Tom _______________________+1.1 _+1.0 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 _+1.6

Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0

RodneyS ____________________+0.6 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ +0.6 _--0.3 _+0.6 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8

___ Normal ___________________0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0

(Normal also coldest at DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH, PHX and SEA)

 

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Extending the anomalies and forecasts:

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

8th ____ (7d) ____+2.9 _+1.1 _+2.4 ___ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.6 ___ +3.2 _+4.0 _+4.7

8th ___ (p14d) ___+2.0 _+0.5 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+3.3

8th ___ (p24d) ___+1.5 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.2 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

 

15th __ (14d) ____+2.2 _+0.1 _+2.2 __ +2.3 _+3.8 _ +3.7 ___ +1.9 _+3.1 _+3.5

15th __ (p21d) ___+2.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 __ +2.5 _+3.2 _ +3.1 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+3.2

15th __ (p31d) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5

 

22nd ___ (21d) ___ +3.5 _+1.4 _+2.4 __ +1.9 _+4.0 _+3.4 ____ +2.6 _+3.3 _+2.7

22nd ___ (p28d) __ +2.0 _+0.8 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.5 _+2.8 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+3.0

22nd ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5

 

29th ___ (28d) ___ +2.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _+3.3 _+3.2 ____ +2.5 _+3.2 _+2.8

29th ___ (p31d) __ +2.0 _+0.5 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+2.5 _+3.0 ____ +2.5 _+3.0 _+2.5

 

final anomalies ___ +2.0 _+0.3 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+3.1 _+3.0 ____ +2.9 _+3.2 _+3.0

 

15th _ The past week had an excellent verification of 0.7 deg average error. Trends going forward appear similar to the past week (hot everywhere). 

22nd _ The past week improved on verification to 0.5 deg average error. The coming week looks a bit cooler in the east, still hot in the west. 

29th _ The weekly verification improved to 0.32 deg. Some changes have been made to end of month estimates.

1st Sept _ Final anomalies are posted, scores adjusted.

 

SEASONAL MAX ____ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __100 __ 103 ____ 101 __ 115 __ 95

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Scoring for seasonal max 2019 (to date)

 

wxallannj ___________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 14

RodneyS ___________________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 15

hudsonvalley21 ______________3 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 0 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18

DonSutherland1 _____________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 18

BKViking ___________________ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 18 

Tom _______________________0 __ 4 __ 2 ____ 5 __ 0 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 4 __ 2 _____ 20

wxdude64 __________________3 __ 5 __ 3 ____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ______ 1 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 22

Scotty Lightning _____________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 6 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 22

Roger Smith ________________ 8 __ 9 __ 7 ____ 8 __ 1 __ 2 ______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 _____ 48

 

Seasonal Max forecasts for 2019

Roger Smith _______________ 107 _ 104 _ 105 __ 103 _ 101 _ 101 __ 104 _ 120 _ 100

wxdude64 _________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 __ 100 __ 99 _ 104 __ 102 _ 118 __ 95

Scotty Lightning ____________ 102 _ 100 __ 98 ___ 96 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 95 _ 117 __ 93

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 101 _ 100 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 __ 100 _ 116 __ 94

BKViking __________________ 100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 100 _ 117 __ 94

DonSutherland1 _____________100 __ 98 __ 96 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 98 _ 117 __ 93

Tom _______________________99 __ 99 __ 96 ___100 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 97

 RodneyS ___________________ 99 __ 98 __  96 ___ 95 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92

wxallannj ___________________ 97 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 96 __ 98 _ 100 __ 100 _ 116 __ 95

 
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Final scoring for August 2019

 

FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west ___TOTAL (all nine)

 

Scotty Lightning  _____________80 _ 86_ 80 __ 246 __100_ 68 _ 70__ 238__ 484 __ 62 _ 66 _ 60 __ 188 ____ 672

Roger Smith ________________ 90 _ 46 _ 70 __ 206 __ 60 _ 78 _ 64 __ 202 __408 ___ 84 _ 78_100 __ 262 ____ 670 


___ Consensus ______________ 88 _ 82 _ 90 __260 __ 98 _ 52 _ 62 __ 212 __ 472 ___ 62 _ 58 _ 76 __ 196 ____ 668

 

wxallannj ___________________88 _ 84 _ 88 __ 260 __ 80 _ 46 _ 52 __ 178 __ 438 ___ 66 _ 62 _ 84 __ 212 ____ 650

hudsonvalley21 ______________92 _ 68 _ 98 __ 258 __ 98 _ 62 _ 66 __ 226 __ 484 ___ 38 _ 52 _ 76 __ 166 ____ 650

__ BKViking ___ (-8%) _______ 98 _ 62 _ 98 __ 258 __ 90 _ 54 _ 70 __ 214 __ 472 ___ 78 _ 56 _ 98 __ 232 _704

BKViking _______ (-8%) ______ 90 _ 57 _ 90 __ 237 __ 83 _ 50 _ 64 __ 197 __ 434 ___ 72 _ 52 _ 90 __ 214 ____ 648

wxdude64 __________________ 84 _ 82 _ 90 __ 256 __ 88 _ 52 _ 62 __ 202 __ 458 ___ 50 _ 58 _ 78 __ 186 ____ 644

RodneyS ___________________ 72 _ 84 _ 90 __ 246 __ 98 _ 32 _ 52 __ 182 __ 428 ___ 62 _ 56 _ 56 __ 174 ____ 602

Tom _______________________82 86 _78 __ 246 __ 86 _ 50 _ 50 __ 186 __ 432 ___ 32 _ 66 _ 72 __ 170 ____ 602

DonSutherland1 _____________ 88 _ 82 _ 78 __ 248 __ 94 _ 48 _ 50 __ 192 __ 440 ___ 36 _ 42 _ 70 __ 148 ____ 588

 

___ Normal _________________60 _ 96 _ 60 __ 216 __ 90 _ 40 _ 40 __ 170 __ 386 ___ 42 _ 34 _ 40 __ 116 ____ 502

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts

DCA _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (+2.5) .

NYC _ at +0.3, a win for coldest forecasts Scotty Lightning and Tom, also Normal.

BOS _ at +2.0, a win for hudsonvalley21 and a loss for Roger Smith, also a "no decision" for BKViking.

ORD _ at +0.5, not an extreme forecast.

ATL _ at +3.2, a win for Roger Smith (high forecast, +2.0).

IAH _ at +3.0, a win for Scotty Lightning and a "no decision" for BKViking (tied before late penalty reduced score).

DEN _ at +2.9, a win for Roger Smith(+3.7)

PHX _ at +3.3, a win for Roger Smith (+2.1).

SEA _ at +3.0, a win for Roger Smith.

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<<<<< =====  ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Aug 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 537 _638 _585__1760 __542 _516 _654__1712__3472__557 _528 _508__ 1593___5065

___ Consensus ___________595_ 676 _576 __1847__522 _492 _630 __1644 __3491 __ 473 _522 _478 __1473 ___4964

DonSutherland.1 __________533 _662 _501 __1696 __504 _492 _646 __1642 __ 3338 __ 487 _560_ 518__1565___ 4903

wxdude64 _______________565 _641 _547 __1753 __565_446 _613 __1624 __ 3377 __ 486 _509 _477 __1472____4849

wxallannj ________________588 _598 _600__1786 __442 _534 _604 __1580 __ 3366 __ 432 _528 _476 __1436____4802

hudsonvalley21 ___________537 _676 _604__1817 __484 _534 _628 __1646 __3463 __ 355 _522 _454 __1331 ____4794

Roger Smith _____________ 600 _576 _538 __1714 __442 _460 _576 __1478 __3192 __ 571 _484 _490 __1545 ____4737

BKViking ________________ 597 _645 _578 __1820 __479 _446 _583 __1508 __3328 __ 416 _466 _465 __1347 ____4675

Scotty Lightning ___________525 _620 _555 __1700 __474 _518 _602 __1594 __3294 __ 362 _470 _404 __1236 ____4530

Tom ____________________483 _609 _483 __1575 __ 528 _382 _602 __1512 __3087 __365 _514 _447 __1326 ____4413

___ Normal ______________ 402 _640 _490 __1532 __502 _360 _600 __1462 __2994 __ 341 _515 _341__1197 ____4191

Stebo (4/8) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225

RJay (4/8) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083

tplbge (1/8) ______________  90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684

smerby (1/8) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660

Jakkelwx (1/8) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________1 ___3 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 1 __ JUL

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________1 ___1 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 __ AUG

Tom ___________________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___3 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

 

STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

Roger Smith _________16-5

RodneyS ____________ 9-4

DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0

wxallannj ____________7-2

Scotty Lightning ______ 6-0

hudsonvalley21 _______4-0

Normal __________ 4-1

Stebo ______________ 3-1

wxdude64 ___________3-0

BKViking ____________ 2-0*^

Tom _______________ 2-1

RJay _______________ 1-0

tplbge ______________ 1-0

Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0

*retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.

^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty)

______________________________________________________________________________

 

 

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Four Seasons Contest Update -- summer 2019

Contest is now based on total rankings, so that lowest totals are best. The ranks of all locations, subgroups and groups, as well as the all nine totals, are ranked. The eastern and central subtotal ranks are not counted since central-eastern is a ranked category.

This table adds your summer rankings to the previously listed winter and spring totals.

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL

 

 

___ Consensus ____winter__  5 __ 6 __ 6  __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __  ___6*__ 6 __ 5  ___5 ___ 7 _______ 71

________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 ______ 40 

________________ summer _3*__1*__ 4 __ ( 3) ___ 6 __ 3*__ 2*__(4*) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 5 __5 ___ 5 ____ 1 ______ 43 __ 154

 

 RodneyS _________winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67

________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1__ 2 __ 1*__( 1) __ ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 19 

________________ summer _ 5*__2 __ 2 __ ( 4) ___ 1*_ 9 __ 6 __ ( 7) __ ___ 4*__ 9 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 68 __ 154

  

 wxallannj ________ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 ____ 1 __ ( 1) _____ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1  ______47

________________ spring ___3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59

________________ summer _ 2 __ 5 __ __ ( 1) ___ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ (8*) __ 5 __ 3 __ 3 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 51 __ 157

 

 DonSutherland.1 __ winter __ 4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46

 ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43

_________________summer _5*__3*__ 9 __ ( 7) ___ 4 __ 4*__3* __( 4) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 8 __ 8 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______ 74 __ 163

    

hudsonvalley21 ____winter __ 5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54

 ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 

_________________summer _4 __ __ 1*__( 1) ___ 5 __ 2 __ __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 8 __ 7 __ 7 ___ 8 ____3*______48 __ 166

 

Roger Smith ______winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___ 11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7)  __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _ 10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81

________________ summer ___ 8 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 1*__4 __ 8 __ ( 5) __ 7 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 44 __ 189

 

wxdude64 ________winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9  ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9  __10 ____10_____100

 ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 _____ 52

_________________summer _9 __3*__ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 1*__6 __ 2 ___ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _____ 43 __ 195

  

 Scotty Lightning ___winter__ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64

________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 85

 

________________ summer _7*__6 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 6 __ __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3*__ 9 ___ 5 ____ 6 ______ 62 __ 211

 

BKViking _________winter __ 7 __ 3  __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85

 ________________ spring __  __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) __ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 76 

_________________summer _ 3 __ 9 __ 3 __ ( 3) ___ 7 __ 3 __ 3* __( 6) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ___ 4 ____ 5 ______ 53 __ 214

      

Tom ____________ winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96

 ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 _____ 65

_________________summer _7*__ 7 __ 7 __ ( 9) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 8* __( 9) __ 9 ____ 9 __ 1 __ 6 ___ 6 _____ 9 _____ 85 __ 246

  

 ___ Normal _______winter___9 __  3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86

________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 ___  (9) __ 9 ___ 11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91

________________summer _10__ 6* __10__ (10) ___ 6*__ 9 __ 8 ___ ( 8) __10 ___ 7 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 10 _____106 __ 283

==========================================

(left contest befpre summer portion) . . .

 

_

 

 Stebo ____________winter__ 6  __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81

 ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204)

  

 RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86

 ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __(207)

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FYI, late penalties to date have cost BKV a total of 131 points which if added to total score would improve overall rank from 7th to 4th place. No telling how much of that might not occur if the later data available was not considered, which is most of the reason for the late penalty rather than a punitive motive (translated to simple English, a late entry could score higher than the same forecaster's on time entry because of model improvement and data already known, whether by the 8% per 36h that is usually in play or less, an open question). Tom had one late penalty month and lost 31 points which was not enough to change rank from 9th. And wxdude64 lost a small total of nine points with one per cent reductions in one month; that made no difference to his third place rank.

Before bowing out, RJay had lost 98 points to late penalties and Stebo 46. At that time they had lost two and one ranking respectively. 

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On 9/4/2019 at 11:32 AM, Roger Smith said:

FYI, late penalties to date have cost BKV a total of 131 points which if added to total score would improve overall rank from 7th to 4th place. No telling how much of that might not occur if the later data available was not considered, which is most of the reason for the late penalty rather than a punitive motive (translated to simple English, a late entry could score higher than the same forecaster's on time entry because of model improvement and data already known, whether by the 8% per 36h that is usually in play or less, an open question). Tom had one late penalty month and lost 31 points which was not enough to change rank from 9th. And wxdude64 lost a small total of nine points with one per cent reductions in one month; that made no difference to his third place rank.

Before bowing out, RJay had lost 98 points to late penalties and Stebo 46. At that time they had lost two and one ranking respectively. 

I know Man. I gotta put reminder in phone. I spend so much time all month on weather stuff and forget this—always! Anyway, the “more” interesting temp forecasts months are coming so hope I get it together lol 

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