Dec 22 Capital weather gang blog

[usedtobe]

http://voices.washin...dusting_or.html

We still may very well be too low with our probabilities but didn't want to change too much as the gem still looks to be too far east for a hit, ditto for the ukmet based on what I saw through 72 hrs. There is still plenty of time to raise probabilities as we get closer to the event. I actually think the gfs 500 is getting close to giving us a good storm. It certainly has shifted west with the 500 low and it looks like the surface low has room to shift west based on the 500. I guess time will tell. Another CWG guy thinks the latest heat distribution is messing up the model and may be making the low come too far east...ditto for the Eruo. I'm not sure I agree but I guess the next few runs should tell the tale.

[CentralNC]

Thanks for the excellent analysis. I think the NWS offices would be wise to not honk too early, but it's fine line they walk.

[Rainshadow]

Thanks for the excellent analysis. I think the NWS offices would be wise to not honk too early, but it's fine line they walk.

For us (PHL area) it would be fortuitous timing as it would be sunday night into monday, no schools open, people monday morning can open their blinds, see the snow and go back to bed.

Wes good info as always. Its almost as if the gfs "discovered" the storm with the 12z run today. Have a great Christmas!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

For us (PHL area) it would be fortuitous timing as it would be sunday night into monday, no schools open, people monday morning can open their blinds, see the snow and go back to bed.

Wes good info as always. Its almost as if the gfs "discovered" the storm with the 12z run today. Have a great Christmas!

yea but there will be TONS of people travelling on Boxing Day. Not good news for the EC airports.

[Terpeast]

Updated HPC extended forecast today:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

217 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 25 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010

...CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK/IMPACT OF POWERFUL EAST

COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SUN-MON...

AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF AND SHARPENING W-CNTRL NOAM RIDGE IN

PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EARLY SAT WILL

SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING OF AN EVOLVING ERN CONUS TROF WHOSE AXIS

SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST AROUND DAY 5 MON. UPSTREAM FLOW

SHOULD TREND FLATTER WITH TIME AS ERN PAC TROF ENERGY LIFTS NEWD

INTO THE WEST BY SUN-MON AND CONTINUES EWD THEREAFTER... WHILE

ADDITIONAL ERN PAC ENERGY WITH GENERALLY MODEST AMPLITUDE

CONTINUES TOWARD/INTO THE WEST. THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE WRN FLOW IS

EXPECTED TO KICK OUT THE DEEP ERN TROF BY TUE-WED.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE

SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS

FROM THE GULF COAST OR GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG

THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 2-3 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE

INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE

CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS.

THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWITCH

FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A

SUPPRESSED PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS ADJUSTMENT...

THE UKMET TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO

AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS

HAS ALSO TRENDED TO A VERY SUPPRESSED SOLN ACROSS THE GULF...

ADDING SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE

FCST.

THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THE GULF REGION STILL DEPENDS

HEAVILY ON SHRTWV DETAILS OF NRN STREAM FLOW THAT ORIGINATES AT

MID TO HIGHER LATITUDES. MODELS SOMETIMES HAVE CONSIDERABLE

DIFFICULTY WITH HANDLING HIGHER LATITUDE ENERGY UNTIL WITHIN A

COUPLE DAYS OF AN EVENT. OF PARTICULAR NOTE THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE

ON THE SHARP/WWD ELONGATED SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH

ENERGY OVER THE WRN GRTLKS/UPR MS VLY AS OF EARLY DAY 4 SUN. THIS

ORIENTATION OF FLOW LIKELY PLAYS A PART IN THOSE GFS RUNS TRACKING

THE DEEPENING WRN ATLC SFC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z

GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER MORE SUPPORT FOR A SHARPER AND

MORE N-S ORIENTED TROF THAN RECENT GFS RUNS. MEANWHILE THE PAST

TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A CLOSED

LOW TO THE E OF HUDSON BAY AS OF DAY 3 SAT... SO THE ECMWF ALSO

HAS QUESTION MARKS EVEN THOUGH THEIR RUNS ARE MORE SIMILAR FARTHER

SWD.

AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR THE EAST COAST THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE

WRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WWD OF

ALL 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE ADMITTEDLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN

RESOLUTION. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS BEING

A DEEP EXTREME WITH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ASIDE FROM THE DEPTH

ALOFT THE ECMWF MID LVL EVOLUTION DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE

COMPATIBLE WITH GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IDEAS THAN THE 00Z/06Z

GFS. THUS PREFER A SFC SOLN IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE

SPREAD AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN 00Z/06Z GFS... BUT IT IS TOO

EARLY TO SUBSCRIBE FULLY TO THE 00Z ECMWF SPECIFICS. THUS WILL

PREFER A BLEND CONSISTING OF 30 PCT EACH 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z/21

ECMWF RUNS WITH THE REMAINING 40 PCT OCCUPIED BY THE 00Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN TO YIELD A COMPROMISE AROUND 2/3 TOWARD THE ECMWF.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT

SNOWFALL GRADIENT ALONG/INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST... MAKING IT

DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS MAY BE DESIRED WHICH

AREAS WILL RECEIVE SNOW AND HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AT A

PARTICULAR LOCATION. HOWEVER EVEN WHERE THERE IS LITTLE OR NO

SNOW THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDS OVER THE ERN

STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SURGE

OF COLD AIR INTO THE EAST WITH SOME DAYTIME READINGS REACHING AT

LEAST 15 F BELOW NORMAL SUN-MON... AND FREEZING TEMPS FOR LOWS

EXTENDING INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY EARLY MON-TUE.

THE PREFERRED BLEND FOR THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TONES

DOWN THE 00Z ECMWF THAT IS ON THE SHARP/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE

ENVELOPE WITH THE MID LVL TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON DAY 4 SUN.

CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS OF ERN PAC TO PLAINS/GRTLKS FLOW

DECREASES AS AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN FLOW LIKEWISE DECREASES AT

LEAST BRIEFLY. BY DAY 7 WED THE MOST COMMON IDEAS OF ENSEMBLE

MEANS ARE TOWARD A WEAK SHRTWV REACHING THE GRTLKS AND VICINITY...

A SHRTWV TROF NEARING THE WEST COAST... AND A MODERATE TROF

REACHING NWRN MEXICO. ECMWF RUNS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BETTER

THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS WHICH ARE SLOWER. HOWEVER THERE IS THE RISK

THAT THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK TO BREAK

DOWN/PUSH EWD THE RIDGE ALOFT REACHING THE ERN HALF OF NOAM BY

TUE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF

THE CONUS THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST... WITH SOME LOCALLY

MDT-HVY PCPN OVER CNTRL-NRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD

IN ASSOC WITH THE LEADING TROF EJECTING INTO THE WEST. DRIER

CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST

MON-TUE... BUT THE DAY 7 SHRTWV MAY PUSH MEANINGFUL PCPN SWD INTO

CA BY NEXT WED.

12Z UPDATE... FINAL FCST MAKES NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE

UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE. WITH THE GULF/WRN ATLC SYSTEM A MILD WWD

TREND IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS MEAN HAS NARROWED THE SOLN SPREAD

SLIGHTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC BUT OTHERWISE PRIOR UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN PRINCIPLE

WHILE THE 12Z CMC CLUSTERS NEAR THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE UKMET IS

SLOWEST AND ALSO EWD OF THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN DOES OFFER

POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO EXTEND FARTHER WWD THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN

EVEN THOUGH THE GEFS MEAN SFC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO OR A FRACTION E

OF THE GFS. FARTHER WWD... ECMWF CONTINUITY AND 12Z

CMC/EXCESSIVELY SEPARATED UKMET SOLNS OFFER SUPPORT FOR A FAIRLY

SHARP/AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON SUN. DOWNSTREAM

THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE

NRN TIER CONUS/SRN CANADA FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z

GFS TRENDING FASTER THAN 00Z/06Z RUNS AND 12Z ECMWF/CMC/GEFS MEAN

SIMILAR TO OR AT MOST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z

UKMET IS A FAST OUTLIER THOUGH. FINALLY THERE IS DECENT

CLUSTERING OF SOLNS WITH THE SHRTWV FCST TO NEAR THE WEST COAST AS

OF EARLY DAY 7 WED.

RAUSCH/CISCO

[usedtobe]

For us (PHL area) it would be fortuitous timing as it would be sunday night into monday, no schools open, people monday morning can open their blinds, see the snow and go back to bed.

Wes good info as always. Its almost as if the gfs "discovered" the storm with the 12z run today. Have a great Christmas!

The 18z didn't move much from the 12Z except to be a little faster. Still it gives me a little snow. I'm glad I'm only writing a blog. Making an official forecast would be terribly hard. Merry Christmas to you also and Nooch.

[usedtobe]

Updated HPC extended forecast today:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

217 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 25 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 29 2010

...CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK/IMPACT OF POWERFUL EAST

COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SUN-MON...

AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF AND SHARPENING W-CNTRL NOAM RIDGE IN

PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EARLY SAT WILL

SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING OF AN EVOLVING ERN CONUS TROF WHOSE AXIS

SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST AROUND DAY 5 MON. UPSTREAM FLOW

SHOULD TREND FLATTER WITH TIME AS ERN PAC TROF ENERGY LIFTS NEWD

INTO THE WEST BY SUN-MON AND CONTINUES EWD THEREAFTER... WHILE

ADDITIONAL ERN PAC ENERGY WITH GENERALLY MODEST AMPLITUDE

CONTINUES TOWARD/INTO THE WEST. THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE WRN FLOW IS

EXPECTED TO KICK OUT THE DEEP ERN TROF BY TUE-WED.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE

SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS

FROM THE GULF COAST OR GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG

THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 2-3 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE

INDICATED A MASSIVE...DEEP...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE HUGGING THE

CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS THE TWO DAYS FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS.

THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE THE FIRST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SWITCH

FROM TRACKING THIS WAVE ALONG 40N THROUGH THE MIDWEST...TO A

SUPPRESSED PATH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THIS ADJUSTMENT...

THE UKMET TRENDED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO

AN EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 06Z GFS

HAS ALSO TRENDED TO A VERY SUPPRESSED SOLN ACROSS THE GULF...

ADDING SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST THAT PART OF THE

FCST.

THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND THE GULF REGION STILL DEPENDS

HEAVILY ON SHRTWV DETAILS OF NRN STREAM FLOW THAT ORIGINATES AT

MID TO HIGHER LATITUDES. MODELS SOMETIMES HAVE CONSIDERABLE

DIFFICULTY WITH HANDLING HIGHER LATITUDE ENERGY UNTIL WITHIN A

COUPLE DAYS OF AN EVENT. OF PARTICULAR NOTE THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE

ON THE SHARP/WWD ELONGATED SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH

ENERGY OVER THE WRN GRTLKS/UPR MS VLY AS OF EARLY DAY 4 SUN. THIS

ORIENTATION OF FLOW LIKELY PLAYS A PART IN THOSE GFS RUNS TRACKING

THE DEEPENING WRN ATLC SFC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z

GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFER MORE SUPPORT FOR A SHARPER AND

MORE N-S ORIENTED TROF THAN RECENT GFS RUNS. MEANWHILE THE PAST

TWO ECMWF RUNS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A CLOSED

LOW TO THE E OF HUDSON BAY AS OF DAY 3 SAT... SO THE ECMWF ALSO

HAS QUESTION MARKS EVEN THOUGH THEIR RUNS ARE MORE SIMILAR FARTHER

SWD.

AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR THE EAST COAST THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE

WRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND WWD OF

ALL 00Z GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE ADMITTEDLY SOMEWHAT LOWER IN

RESOLUTION. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS BEING

A DEEP EXTREME WITH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ASIDE FROM THE DEPTH

ALOFT THE ECMWF MID LVL EVOLUTION DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE

COMPATIBLE WITH GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IDEAS THAN THE 00Z/06Z

GFS. THUS PREFER A SFC SOLN IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE

SPREAD AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN 00Z/06Z GFS... BUT IT IS TOO

EARLY TO SUBSCRIBE FULLY TO THE 00Z ECMWF SPECIFICS. THUS WILL

PREFER A BLEND CONSISTING OF 30 PCT EACH 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z/21

ECMWF RUNS WITH THE REMAINING 40 PCT OCCUPIED BY THE 00Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN TO YIELD A COMPROMISE AROUND 2/3 TOWARD THE ECMWF.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT

SNOWFALL GRADIENT ALONG/INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST... MAKING IT

DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS MAY BE DESIRED WHICH

AREAS WILL RECEIVE SNOW AND HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AT A

PARTICULAR LOCATION. HOWEVER EVEN WHERE THERE IS LITTLE OR NO

SNOW THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDS OVER THE ERN

STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SURGE

OF COLD AIR INTO THE EAST WITH SOME DAYTIME READINGS REACHING AT

LEAST 15 F BELOW NORMAL SUN-MON... AND FREEZING TEMPS FOR LOWS

EXTENDING INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY EARLY MON-TUE.

THE PREFERRED BLEND FOR THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC EVOLUTION TONES

DOWN THE 00Z ECMWF THAT IS ON THE SHARP/AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE

ENVELOPE WITH THE MID LVL TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON DAY 4 SUN.

CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS OF ERN PAC TO PLAINS/GRTLKS FLOW

DECREASES AS AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN FLOW LIKEWISE DECREASES AT

LEAST BRIEFLY. BY DAY 7 WED THE MOST COMMON IDEAS OF ENSEMBLE

MEANS ARE TOWARD A WEAK SHRTWV REACHING THE GRTLKS AND VICINITY...

A SHRTWV TROF NEARING THE WEST COAST... AND A MODERATE TROF

REACHING NWRN MEXICO. ECMWF RUNS FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BETTER

THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS WHICH ARE SLOWER. HOWEVER THERE IS THE RISK

THAT THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK TO BREAK

DOWN/PUSH EWD THE RIDGE ALOFT REACHING THE ERN HALF OF NOAM BY

TUE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF

THE CONUS THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST... WITH SOME LOCALLY

MDT-HVY PCPN OVER CNTRL-NRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD

IN ASSOC WITH THE LEADING TROF EJECTING INTO THE WEST. DRIER

CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST

MON-TUE... BUT THE DAY 7 SHRTWV MAY PUSH MEANINGFUL PCPN SWD INTO

CA BY NEXT WED.

12Z UPDATE... FINAL FCST MAKES NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE

UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE. WITH THE GULF/WRN ATLC SYSTEM A MILD WWD

TREND IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS MEAN HAS NARROWED THE SOLN SPREAD

SLIGHTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC BUT OTHERWISE PRIOR UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN PRINCIPLE

WHILE THE 12Z CMC CLUSTERS NEAR THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE UKMET IS

SLOWEST AND ALSO EWD OF THE ECMWF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN DOES OFFER

POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO EXTEND FARTHER WWD THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN

EVEN THOUGH THE GEFS MEAN SFC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO OR A FRACTION E

OF THE GFS. FARTHER WWD... ECMWF CONTINUITY AND 12Z

CMC/EXCESSIVELY SEPARATED UKMET SOLNS OFFER SUPPORT FOR A FAIRLY

SHARP/AMPLIFIED ERN PAC TROF ENTERING THE WEST ON SUN. DOWNSTREAM

THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED AGREEMENT WITH INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE

NRN TIER CONUS/SRN CANADA FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z

GFS TRENDING FASTER THAN 00Z/06Z RUNS AND 12Z ECMWF/CMC/GEFS MEAN

SIMILAR TO OR AT MOST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z

UKMET IS A FAST OUTLIER THOUGH. FINALLY THERE IS DECENT

CLUSTERING OF SOLNS WITH THE SHRTWV FCST TO NEAR THE WEST COAST AS

OF EARLY DAY 7 WED.

RAUSCH/CISCO

Rausch does a good job. He pretty much spells out the problems.

[dankil13]

Rausch does a good job. He pretty much spells out the problems.

If you go back and read the assessment of the NWS performance during the blizzard of 96, it is very eerily to how similar this NWS report is to the ones that were issued 3-4 days in advance of that storm.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

[notvirga!]

That report is 53 pages? Which pages are u talking about?

[Master of Disaster]

http://voices.washin...dusting_or.html

We still may very well be too low with our probabilities but didn't want to change too much as the gem still looks to be too far east for a hit, ditto for the ukmet based on what I saw through 72 hrs. There is still plenty of time to raise probabilities as we get closer to the event. I actually think the gfs 500 is getting close to giving us a good storm. It certainly has shifted west with the 500 low and it looks like the surface low has room to shift west based on the 500. I guess time will tell. Another CWG guy thinks the latest heat distribution is messing up the model and may be making the low come too far east...ditto for the Eruo. I'm not sure I agree but I guess the next few runs should tell the tale.

Wes, are you getting any complaints about people not being able to open your link? Its been several weeks now that I get an operation aborted notice and have no clue why.

[YoRyz]

Thanks Wes, excellent write-up. I think this really gives us solid reasoning for each of the possible scenarios as played out by the models.

[usedtobe]

Wes, are you getting any complaints about people not being able to open your link? Its been several weeks now that I get an operation aborted notice and have no clue why.

A friend recently told me he had the same problem. I think it's the traffic on the server and all the adds that the post runs which might activate any pop up blocker.