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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50

Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...

either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??

thanks

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Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50
Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...
either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??
thanks
Its looking like a good bet for precip both periods with the latter being the more pronounced rain event of the 2. The first period can change in your favor as there is still time for changes but a battle zone is going to be setting up the next 2 weeks and who knows where that boundary will lie.
I do know one thing, that cold shot the GFS has been advertising and another poster just mentioned, would no doubt bring our firat flakes of the season throughout all of NY but a better shot would be in the belts to the ESE of LO and the same for Erie. It would however be a 24hr shot, at best, and can just as much, be flatout wrong, which we've seen time and time again with the GFS in the mid range guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips entirely the other way as its bound to lose it somewhere, lol. Good'ol GFS!!

I'm just loving the look of the upper air flow which is already quite blocks looking in both the ATL and the PAC which is key. When both oceans work in tandem is when we experience some of our best Winters and it's looking that way real early in the game it looks like. My fear is getting a huge outbreak in October and Novembernonly to be replaced, just in time for the holidays, by a warmer period, relatively speaking, but nonetheless, I've seen it happen way too many times and I dont wanna see it happen this ur but this ur is different. Everything is in our favor, at least early on it looks like, but that can and will probably change. One can only hope that Wibter hits and sticks but those Winters are few and far between.

After I made that last post about loving the winter of 14-15 I watched a movie, Captive with Ryan Reynolds and it just showed how bad that Winter was. In WNY, where the movie was shot, showed scenes throughout Niagara County completely blitzed with snow and it seemed as though whenever they shot their scenes, it was pounding snow, lol, and it was COLD and you could also tell it was LES, lol, well at least us weird snow lovers could.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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14 hours ago, Polarbear said:

Can anyone with any expertise in reading maps give me some advice. I need to take 3 days off from work to get some weather sensitive work done outside. Basically can’t rain or drop below 50

Ive been given the option of oct:3,4,5 or oct   10,11,12...

either period looking better than the other or do I just throw a dart at a calendar??

thanks

The 10th-12th is too far out to judge precipitation right now. But for Oct 3-5

After that...the medium range guidance is in loose agreement on the
aforementioned area of low pressure ejecting northeastward across
Ontario/Quebec and pushing its attendant cold front into or through
our region...however much disagreement exists with respect to the
timing of this boundary. As of this writing...the GFS is at least a
solid 12 hours faster than its Canadian and European counterparts...
both of which now do not bring this boundary into our area until just
after the end of this period. Faced with these differences and the
resultant high degree of forecast uncertainty...for now have just
broadbrushed some lower to mid chance range PoPs for both Wednesday
night and Thursday...while indicating continued somewhat above
normal temperatures.

Here is day 5-7 QPF from HPC

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1538139994

I'd say if it does rain it doesn't look to be too bad. Temps around 70. 

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6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Its looking like a good bet for precip both periods with the latter being the more pronounced rain event of the 2. The first period can change in your favor as there is still time for changes but a battle zone is going to be setting up the next 2 weeks and who knows where that boundary will lie.
I do know one thing, that cold shot the GFS has been advertising and another poster just mentioned, would no doubt bring our firat flakes of the season throughout all of NY but a better shot would be in the belts to the ESE of LO and the same for Erie. It would however be a 24hr shot, at best, and can just as much, be flatout wrong, which we've seen time and time again with the GFS in the mid range guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips entirely the other way as its bound to lose it somewhere, lol. Good'ol GFS!!

I'm just loving the look of the upper air flow which is already quite blocks looking in both the ATL and the PAC which is key. When both oceans work in tandem is when we experience some of our best Winters and it's looking that way real early in the game it looks like. My fear is getting a huge outbreak in October and Novembernonly to be replaced, just in time for the holidays, by a warmer period, relatively speaking, but nonetheless, I've seen it happen way too many times and I dont wanna see it happen this ur but this ur is different. Everything is in our favor, at least early on it looks like, but that can and will probably change. One can only hope that Wibter hits and sticks but those Winters are few and far between.

After I made that last post about loving the winter of 14-15 I watched a movie, Captive with Ryan Reynolds and it just showed how bad that Winter was. In WNY, where the movie was shot, showed scenes throughout Niagara County completely blitzed with snow and it seemed as though whenever they shot their scenes, it was pounding snow, lol, and it was COLD and you could also tell it was LES, lol, well at least us weird snow lovers could.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

I like the look as well. The PV is looking to get disrupted early and often in the next few weeks. First snowflakes possibly next weekend over higher elevations? That SE ridge is going to be tough to budge. The northern plains will have plenty of chances of show the next few weeks. The 14-15 winter was just brutal for cold/snow in Upstate. I remember that February being like -10 or something below normal. Lake Erie froze really early that year (1st week of January I think) 

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On 9/26/2018 at 1:03 PM, wolfie09 said:

So we now have a "Golden Snowdrift award"? lol (A little outdated, does not include last year)

 

I read that article and swooned. My gf read that article and threw up. :lol: 

  • Haha 1

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The next two weeks now look much warmer than they did before with a monster ridge in the East. I don't see any below normal weather for nearly all of October now. Maybe we see a chance in November. We've had 6-7 straight months of above normal temps. 

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The next two weeks now look much warmer than they did before with a monster ridge in the East. I don't see any below normal weather for nearly all of October now. Maybe we see a chance in November. We've had 6-7 straight months of above normal temps. 
Good, as I'd rather warm weather during October rather than a cold Oct, then a cold half of November then a thaw till after the Holiday back to cold. The Rubber band has got to snap, eventually, and I cant wait for it to do so, lol!

Model guidance during transition periods, like the change of seasons, especially Summer to Fall, has an effect on guidance at verification time, so I think the push of colder, more dense air, can perhaps bully it's way further to the E/SE by 50-100 miles, lol. Remember, I'm being Super optimistic here, lol!

Man what a stretch of Warn AN temps throughout the North East, WOW! Like Buffalo said, 5-7 straight months of AN weather is just sick, really, so let's hope it goes the other way, for 5-7 months, but add snow for at least 4 of those months.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Good, as I'd rather warm weather during October rather than a cold Oct, then a cold half of November then a thaw till after the Holiday back to cold. The Rubber band has got to snap, eventually, and I cant wait for it to do so, lol!

Model guidance during transition periods, like the change of seasons, especially Summer to Fall, has an effect on guidance at verification time, so I think the push of colder, more dense air, can perhaps bully it's way further to the E/SE by 50-100 miles, lol. Remember, I'm being Super optimistic here, lol!

Man what a stretch of Warn AN temps throughout the North East, WOW! Like Buffalo said, 5-7 straight months of AN weather is just sick, really, so let's hope it goes the other way, for 5-7 months, but add snow for at least 4 of those months.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah same here. Keep it warm until November and then let the lake effect fly! 

The models have a hard time dealing with long range temps around this time of year. They almost always show colder air coming in the 10-15 day range, but rarely does it come to fruition. I still like the cold building up in Canada. The years in which winter never shows up are those where Canada is a torch. 

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