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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread

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12z NAM highlights the large bust potential on this weekend. Like I said in the other thread, this doesn't look like a widespread heavy rain event. Looks much more like a localized event where the areas that get hit by convection get big totals but other areas see next to nothing. widespread 3-6" just is not going to happen, and I can say that with a fairly high degree of confidence.

 

nam3km_apcpn_neus_18.png

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I don't follow the models as closely this time of year as I do in the winter, but I think yesterday's 12Z Euro had the heavier rains over our region. This morning's 0Z run went south, more inline with the other guidance. Let's see if today's 12Z holds serve. But yes, someone under a slow moving t-storm could still see impressive totals, just not the widespread flood threat.

 

80F/71DP ... disgusting!

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86F / DP 74F

Still think someone gets whacked w/rain decently well over the next couple days (3"+)...there's too much moisture in the air.

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As of 6am, 73F / DP 68F...sun is breaking out and I don't think I received a drop of rain overnight.

Not sure what model 6abc is using for these totals this morning but I'm skeptical at this point....

6abc2.jpg

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Judging by the plants and walks, some light rain came through here this morning but not enough to tip the bucket.  Currently 78 and overcast, with breaks of sun here and there.  There was a good amount of sun earlier (about an hour ago) but that sortof disappeared.

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3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

As of 6am, 73F / DP 68F...sun is breaking out and I don't think I received a drop of rain overnight.

Not sure what model 6abc is using for these totals this morning but I'm skeptical at this point....

6abc2.jpg

Probably this one:

meme-gif-jealous-gf-small.jpg.94db5cdacf749fdcecd38de86874c201.jpg

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I'm pretty disappointed not one met in this area have shown this event for what it is... On and off showers with locally heavy rain. This was never going to be a washout like they were predicting...

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I'm just glad it's not winter, on Thursday Glenn said I was getting 3-5 feet of snow!

 

Clouds starting to build, 80F/70DP.

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9 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm just glad it's not winter, on Thursday Glenn said I was getting 3-5 feet of snow!

 

Clouds starting to build, 80F/70DP.

Lol can you imagine? These well advertised big rains aren't materializing so much....probably get 3" in a pop up storm that we won't see coming.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I'm pretty disappointed not one met in this area have shown this event for what it is... On and off showers with locally heavy rain. This was never going to be a washout like they were predicting...

Every local TV met pretty much shiet the fan on this one. It wasn't till the Thurs 11pm forecast where Cecily start hinting the totals may be reduced. Even yesterday most were saying today (Sat) would be rainy with showers/T-storms much of the day but we'll salvage Sunday. Hell, it's been mostly sunny here since sunrise and radar still doesn't look impressive. May still get some showers and possibly a T-storm later on but certainly not a weekend washout. Imagine all the people who altered/cancelled their plans this weekend because of the forecast most stations were predicting?  

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^^^Could get interesting as the afternoon goes on - most of the action looks to be just to our south but you can see things starting to pop, both to our west and even north of here (all drifting slowly south at the moment).

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16 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

^^^Could get interesting as the afternoon goes on - most of the action looks to be just to our south but you can see things starting to pop, both to our west and even north of here (all drifting slowly south at the moment).

Yeah, I noticed that but it's pretty spotty. (no line) I could definitely see 10 miles up the road gets 1" and I get screwed not to mention I'm (Horsham) still under a "boil water advisory".

http://6abc.com/horsham-issues-boil-water-advisory/3546118/

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24 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

What storms there are so far are slowly moving from northeast to southwest. Not one of the regular directional  tracks we see. At least in southeast PA. May be different in Del and Md.

Yeah, I don't think it's the ideal way for us to cash in. Looks like some stuff ready to hit Philly...84F / DP 71F

ph.jpg

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