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The Iceman

March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat

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Well since the threat will be at around 120 hours out at the 12z runs, it is time to fire up the disco thread. copying and pasting my post from the general thread in here from this morning to kick things off. Help me bring one more home before we say goodbye to winter!

 

 

Euro and CMC OP's give the area a solid snowfall for next week but it is the ensembles that really have me sold on this threat. huge improvements overnight at 500 mb imo on the 00z ensemble guidance...take a look

EPS

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_7.png

GEFS

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24.png

GEPS

gem-ens_z500a_namer_25.png

 

stronger ridging, 50/50 low doesnt move out as quickly and -NAO looks stronger than previous runs. Overall very good trends in the mid range. Plus the EPO tanking suggests that the airmass may be slightly underdone right now. This is a much more SECSy look than yesterday. the ridging up in canada and greenland is key imo the gefs is weaker with it at 06z and it trended more north with the primary and coastal leading to a warmer solution. however, the geps and eps are stronger with that ridging and the primary dies off further south keeping us all or mostly all snow.

 

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I was just stating to look at this setup this morning. Long way to go here, but that was a great breakdown. 1 more going away present would be awesome! 

I have a feeling people are going to be watching the surface maps and jsust assume its going to be to warm. Hoping to see some good trends between now and saturday!

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This has been the pattern this winter to force vorticity south of the region days 5-6 only to draw it farther N as lead time lessens. Hoping this one bucks the trend but so far is fitting the seasonal pattern. We will know in a day or so whether the disturbance ticks farther N or not. Hoping for a late season reversal!

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This has been the pattern this winter to force vorticity south of the region days 5-6 only to draw it farther N as lead time lessens. Hoping this one bucks the trend but so far is fitting the seasonal pattern. We will know in a day or so whether the disturbance ticks farther N or not. Hoping for a late season reversal!

Key to that is the ridging to the north. I think we saw that a lot this season because we never had blocking. Need that high in canada to trend stronger and the -NAO to weaken slower. As you said it is marginal but really every march threat after the 10th is marginal. N and W will always be favored in March and this is no different. Even if we all see snow, I'd bet that they do better. Need that primary to also die further south so the 850s don't torch... this one has a snow N and W and sleetstorm for 95 feeling because of how borderline this will be even if we get all frozen.

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Key to that is the ridging to the north. I think we saw that a lot this season because we never had blocking. Need that high in canada to trend stronger and the -NAO to weaken slower. As you said it is marginal but really every march threat after the 10th is marginal. N and W will always be favored in March and this is no different. Even if we all see snow, I'd bet that they do better. Need that primary to also die further south so the 850s don't torch... this one has a snow N and W and sleetstorm for 95 feeling because of how borderline this will be even if we get all frozen.
Do you see a similar look at all with this coming threat and to the last storm that was progged the same at 5 day lead time then skirted South hooked around us generally then slammed NE? I know forecasting isnt based on repetition and I am NOT saying a repeat will happen, but I cannot help but notice the similarities......and that system had the ridging to the N.

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LOL 12z ICON is a perfect example of why it is a terrible model. It begins to kills the primary in ky/wv and transfer to a coastal off of OBX(which is a great location for us) but then it doesn't kill the old primary for some reason which robs the coastal of it's precip. but the coastal low just stalls like 75 miles off cape may for 24-36 hours before finally amplifying and moving out. I really have no clue wtf it is trying to do. 

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This has been the pattern this winter to force vorticity south of the region days 5-6 only to draw it farther N as lead time lessens. Hoping this one bucks the trend but so far is fitting the seasonal pattern. We will know in a day or so whether the disturbance ticks farther N or not. Hoping for a late season reversal!
As iceman noted, now that we have blocking the trends recently have been to shunt things south as we get closer as opposed to my post which referred to pre-blocking trending N. However, I would urge serious caution as we saw with last storm that ended up blasting New England to not pray for too much blocking/suppression. Too much of a good thing isnt always a blessing. I do like the hp trends over SE Canada and CAD signature but am still very skeptical given the very marginal setup still along I95.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
Key to that is the ridging to the north. I think we saw that a lot this season because we never had blocking. Need that high in canada to trend stronger and the -NAO to weaken slower. As you said it is marginal but really every march threat after the 10th is marginal. N and W will always be favored in March and this is no different. Even if we all see snow, I'd bet that they do better. Need that primary to also die further south so the 850s don't torch... this one has a snow N and W and sleetstorm for 95 feeling because of how borderline this will be even if we get all frozen.

Do you see a similar look at all with this coming threat and to the last storm that was progged the same at 5 day lead time then skirted South hooked around us generally then slammed NE? I know forecasting isnt based on repetition and I am NOT saying a repeat will happen, but I cannot help but notice the similarities......and that system had the ridging to the N.

I do which is actually why I like this threat. Last storm was very close to being a hit here. A bit better timing and it would have been SECS from DC to BOS. I like this more because this threat doesn't have as strong ridging as the last one to suppress it way out to sea before coming together. It's a very delicate balance especially with it being late March. But being it is late March, this doesn't look that bad of a set up to me. Odds are against us for sure but other than having an extreme arctic air in place, not sure we can get much better looks other than marginal events at this time of the year. 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

LOL 12z ICON is a perfect example of why it is a terrible model. It begins to kills the primary in ky/wv and transfer to a coastal off of OBX(which is a great location for us) but then it doesn't kill the old primary for some reason which robs the coastal of it's precip. but the coastal low just stalls like 75 miles off cape may for 24-36 hours before finally amplifying and moving out. I really have no clue wtf it is trying to do. 

ICON is the German version of our old DGEX little reason to follow it other than for laughs

 

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I do which is actually why I like this threat. Last storm was very close to being a hit here. A bit better timing and it would have been SECS from DC to BOS. I like this more because this threat doesn't have as strong ridging as the last one to suppress it way out to sea before coming together. It's a very delicate balance especially with it being late March. But being it is late March, this doesn't look that bad of a set up to me. Odds are against us for sure but other than having an extreme arctic air in place, not sure we can get much better looks other than marginal events at this time of the year. 
Agree with everything you said. Nice look albeit marginal for late March.

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The reason the GFS is a SECS this run is that the high in SE canada is stronger and further east than 6z and the confluence to the north is further south in Maine as opposed to being in Canada. This does 2 things: It funnels more cold air into the area and prevents the primary from driving into ohio ruining temps aloft here. Like Ralph said though we don't want that to keep trending stronger and further SE because then we get into a situation where suppression is an issue. I do not believe that will be the case though and honestly I'm more concerned about the primary cutting too far N than it being too suppressed at this time. We need all the cold air we can get so I welcome that high to continue trending stronger for now.

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CMC is even better than the GFS because the confluence in the NE and that high pressure in canada are both stronger on the CMC than the GFS. Really the CMC is about as good as it gets for this storm for us and is the best possible scenario for now.

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With the EPO in the process of tanking and forecasted to bottom out below 2 SD below the mean around the 19th, it gives credence to that high pressure in Canada being as strong or even a bit stronger than the models currently are showing IMO

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GEFS mean looks like a great track...waiting to see what the individual members look like. HM honking on a big event has me excited. When I saw the projected NAO forecast, I had actually wondered if this is our Archambault event? Nice to see he thinks that. He is not one at all for hype without reason. 

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

UKIE is ~2" LE for extreme SE PA but looks warmish. NW and elevation areas would do well. I spy a common theme emerging with this threat.

very interesting HM brought up 1958. That was a storm that NW did better than 95 but 95 still saw a significant snowstorm and it too didn't have an arctic air intrusion leading up to the event. It's is one of the few examples of a late march storm that didn't screw anyone as even the coast saw accumulating snow. I hate using all time HECS as examples though because 99% of the time a storm won't live up to that. But the general theme of a late march snow storm where everyone does well but N and W does the best is still very much on the table and todays model trends actually are leaning towards that at the moment. Something like a 4-8" storm for 95 and 8-16" N and W. 

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