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John1122

Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

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NOAA seems to favor the ECMWF over the CFS (previous page NWS week 3-4). They could not be in more disagreement today. We'll see if the Euro changes tonight.  

Asia heat ridge does not want to die. It's locked from Mongolia through parts of Siberia into Manchuria. Ridge is steering their typhoons west/left of forecast. 

Let's enjoy the break from heat later this week. Yup, Shanshan helped us per @jaxjagman forecasts. Low dewpoints will be wonderful! However full summer heat/humidity look to return next week. 

If Cimaron (behind Soulik) goes more at Japan and recurves, maybe another front in early Sept. Otherwise the westward track shifts may leave us warm for a couple weeks.

At least with September sun angle and humidity (both lower) warm will be more comfortable. LOL when are we going to talk about the Atlantic tropics?  :sleepy:

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I have to be honest...I am trying to find something interesting about the upcoming pattern.   I have a hunch September is going to be warm.  It seems that the Weeklies have been a tad too cool recently.  Whichever model is warmer...I will take that one.  The first real cold fronts will likely show-up beginning in about four weeks.  

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@nrgjeff  Would it be correct to call the high latitude pattern on tonight's Euro Weeklies a retrograding one.  Looks like a ridge in the GOA pushes west which is followed by a trough followed by another ridge that pops a PNA or EPO ridge? This all happens over the next 6-7 weeks... 

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Yes I agree @Carvers Gap it is a slow multi-week ridge regression. The evolution is not unreasonable the way this summer has gone. Starting next week it looks hot in our Region through Labor Day likely beyond. Perhaps around Sept 10 the ridge axis will be far enough west to ease up here. By then the CFS eases up 2m temps and Euro introduces more precip. Makes sense if ridge retrogrades.

Now the drier weather might be good news for leaves, per the Asheville article (obs thread). Of course it is a little early and a little hot. When do we ever get things to break just right? Still I am confident this year will be better than last (such a low bar). I'm hopeful it'll turn out great.

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Just glancing at the Euro ensembles this AM...looks like a fairly stout ridge will build in the East during week 2.  Indeed, as Jeff called it, looks like the GFS scored a bit of a coup on this one.  The GFS does hint that some seasonal temps might return after wk 2, but that might likely fall into its bias as well.  Overall, still a tranquil pattern(code for boring) modeled for the next 2-3 weeks.

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I had a lot of help from the Japan Met Agency (previous page). Thank you though. :)

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just glancing at the Euro ensembles this AM...looks like a fairly stout ridge will build in the East during week 2.  Indeed, as Jeff called it, looks like the GFS scored a bit of a coup on this one.  The GFS does hint that some seasonal temps might return after wk 2, but that might likely fall into its bias as well.  Overall, still a tranquil pattern(code for boring) modeled for the next 2-3 weeks.

BOHICA is code for summer coming back, lol! Yeah GFS Op wants to end ridge too quickly. Ensembles all keep it steaming (pun intended) along through day 15. I do still expect it to break up / retrograde a bit toward 10 Sept. Both weeklies ease up every so slightly; CFS on 2m temps, ECMWF more precip.

Hawaii looks to dodge a bullet, but tropical storm conditions are likely/certain on most Islands. Hurricane force winds should gin up through passes and below mountains. So the Cat 5 tracking is Central Pacific this year. 2018-ing LOL

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There is a chill in the air this morning, I nearly needed a long sleeve shirt.  I love the smell outside when the temps are starting to get cooler.  It sounds weird but fall has a distinctive smell and I caught a whiff of it and his morning.

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Long range will depend on what happens in East Asia once again.But still seems up in the air.GFS has a trough in the long range with a significant re-curving typhoon.Euro looks slightly slower with the typhoon but there is trough still showing the same time as the GFS,and another trough a couple days after that could catch the typhoon.Looks like what Jeff and what the weeklies show though could still seem to be right even with what the Euro shows.cold front around the 10th give or take.If the GFS is right i believe we could see another big cool period unlike the last tropical system that went into the Yellow Sea as during this time the PNA was crashing now the PNA looks more neutral

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MJO is forecast to head into phases 8-1 and over on our side of the globe around 10 Sept. Results are good bad and ugly. The ugly is right at the climo peak of Atlantic hurricane season. The bad is models will flip-flop for another week. The good is the Tennessee Valley should indeed cool off. Send the heat back West.

CFS has caught on. Assume the ECWMF weeklies will tonight. We still have to get through this week and next. At least football is starting!

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Indeed, @nrgjeff, that is quite the adjustment on the Weeklies.  Not sure if it is a blip or just returning to its original BN look centered west of the Apps.  Trough slowly works east and then goes BN from wk 4-7 for much of the nation east of the Rockies.  Going to be a warm next 3-4 weeks though.  But good to see the CFS and Euro both get on board w a shift to more fall like temps.  I have not been posting as much because, well...this is a snoozer of a pattern.  Anyway, football starts on Thursday night w a few week zero games last weekend.  That should hold me over until the first frost.  

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On 8/27/2018 at 8:49 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Indeed, @nrgjeff, that is quite the adjustment on the Weeklies.  Not sure if it is a blip or just returning to its original BN look centered west of the Apps.  Trough slowly works east and then goes BN from wk 4-7 for much of the nation east of the Rockies.  Going to be a warm next 3-4 weeks though.  But good to see the CFS and Euro both get on board w a shift to more fall like temps.  I have not been posting as much because, well...this is a snoozer of a pattern.  Anyway, football starts on Thursday night w a few week zero games last weekend.  That should hold me over until the first frost.  

Amen on the snoozer. That said, I'd much rather have my dog days of summer late August/early September than late July/early August. Some may say there's a fine line between brutal and tolerable, but at least the timing this year yields to the latter. Either way, seems most years (outside 2010/2016) we have to wait until the third week of September to start seeing any notable dip in the HI/LO columns. The patience is there if you can steer anticipation into the direction of football/fantasy drafts and ENSO monitoring.

By the way, in case you missed it...

 

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Something interesting (credit to the SE forum), the (CPC ensemble)NAO and AO might be trending in a favorable direction around mid-September.  Absolutely, I am NOT saying we get winter wx.  I just wonder if we might be trending towards a cooler fall and that would fit nicely w the Euro Weeklies from Monday(another run tonight).  My question is this:

How much of an impact does the NAO/AO couplet have during September or is it too early for it to move the needle to cooler weather?  I ask because during summer a -NAO can lead to very warm temps over the forum area....seems like September is where it begins to have an impact here where cooler temps might prevail.

...An interesting story, one year TN had a home game w LSU where it turned abnormally cold.  I had a friend up on Hazel Creek(GSMNP) who was fishing that weekend.  If I remember correctly, they about froze because a burn ban in that area was also in effect - meaning no fire to keep warm.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Something interesting (credit to the SE forum), the (CPC ensemble)NAO and AO might be trending in a favorable direction around mid-September.  Absolutely, I am NOT saying we get winter wx.  I just wonder if we might be trending towards a cooler fall and that would fit nicely w the Euro Weeklies from Monday(another run tonight).  My question is this:

How much of an impact does the NAO/AO couplet have during September or is it too early for it to move the needle to cooler weather?  I ask because during summer a -NAO can lead to very warm temps over the forum area....seems like September is where it begins to have an impact here where cooler temps might prevail.

...An interesting story, one year TN had a home game w LSU where it turned abnormally cold.  I had a friend up on Hazel Creek(GSMNP) who was fishing that weekend.  If I remember correctly, they about froze because a burn ban in that area was also in effect - meaning no fire to keep warm.

I'll try to follow up with a more detailed, analytical response later on, but for now (at work), I will say I prefer the NAO/AO being neutral to positive this stage of the game. Generally, it seems pattern drivers tend to operate within somewhat cyclical intervals ranging from 45-90 days. Factoring latency with a verified CPC ensemble and I agree, things are looking up if you're pro-fall arriving around the equinox. That said, I think it's too early to worry about where the couplet is now with respect to late fall/early winter teleconnections. I know I speak for the majority of the forum when I say I certainly don't want the spring repeating itself where the cool/cold dump is wasted months removed from peak climo. I love a cool fall, but if I'd sacrifice it if it meant we can pattern flip in November and go cold when it counts. Put another way, in my time living in middle TN, it sure seems mild 'early falls' have yielded colder, snowier winters than mild 'late falls'. Granted, this is more of gut/memory comment than anything else.

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18 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I'll try to follow up with a more detailed, analytical response later on, but for now (at work), I will say I prefer the NAO/AO being neutral to positive this stage of the game. Generally, it seems pattern drivers tend to operate within somewhat cyclical intervals ranging from 45-90 days. Factoring latency with a verified CPC ensemble and I agree, things are looking up if you're pro-fall arriving around the equinox. That said, I think it's too early to worry about where the couplet is now with respect to late fall/early winter teleconnections. I know I speak for the majority of the forum when I say I certainly don't want the spring repeating itself where the cool/cold dump is wasted months removed from peak climo. I love a cool fall, but if I'd sacrifice it if it meant we can pattern flip in November and go cold when it counts. Put another way, in my time living in middle TN, it sure seems mild 'early falls' have yielded colder, snowier winters than mild 'late falls'. Granted, this is more of gut/memory comment than anything else.

I don't disagree.  I was a bit surprised at the CPC though.  Not sure (if anything) of what to make of it.  Yeah, that strat split was incredible...and about three weeks too late to help here.  The early season snow is also the kiss of death.  Agree.  We had that here w Sandy and then again a couple of years later.  Tennessee fans couldn't even make it across the mountains to the South Carolina game because of snow.  I do think it is interesting to see the teleconnection hint(maybe prematurely) that the couplet might go negative.  The seasonal models have hinted off-and-on that BN temps might arrive early and hold...that does not necessarily mean winter temps(definitely not at this stage of the game).  However, the seasonal modeling has hinted that a cooler pattern might lead us into winter.  I have been suspect of that all along, but there is some evidence that it might.   @John1122 often mentions the connections between a warm November and a warm winter.  I loosely watch the teleconnections right now for that reason.  If we were to get a cooler air mass dump during October, it might lead to a warm November which is not a good sign.    I just want normal temps.  OTH, if the pattern hits and holds then maybe those seasonal models were onto something after all.

...Probably should have put that in the winter thread, but some of this is more "extended" instead of winter.  I "hope" that we might be entering an era of a bit more blocking over Greenland.  The -NAO during winter seems to be a bit of a unicorn of late.   

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One can tell that it is almost fall....The Euro Weeklies are bouncing around a bit.  Very warm pattern for the next four weeks for the entire forum area - extended summer.  Keys for weeks 4-7(interested in those as we transition out of a summer pattern and looking for hints) is warmth over the Pacific NW and a along the EC w BN temps in the nation's mid-section.  Possibly seasonal here, but based on last night's run....slightly AN temps for most of the forum area as well for the second half of the run.  Monday's run looking more like a blip.  Again, as we approach shoulder season, lots of bouncing around.  Feel free to add or subtract or kick to the curb any of those comments.  Happy footballing!

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CFS and ECMWF weeklies diverge sharply weeks 4-6; well, it must be fall! Euro clusters weeks 4-6 include total opposite solutions all weeks, again fall...

First 3 weeks I think it's apparent we should stay warm past the mid-point of Sept. OK add a week of warmth, relative to my previous forecast, unless we get a big weekend flip.

Figure the CFS is stuck in its week 3 MJO phase; happens a lot. Euro tries to move things along; it's better with the MJO, but it's been awful in the US lately. Different rates of El Nino onset could be in play too.

Bottom line: I'm not buying 5-6 weeks in a row warm. Haven't seen that kind of consistency either direction in months. Will favor moderate ECMWF over the CFS, and the latest Euro is sorta-warm compared to the cool outlier on Monday. 

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Anyone have access to the CANSIPS monthly forecast that was released on 9.1.18?  WxBell has not updated.  I am wonder if it is flipping towards warm as well in regards to winter....Saw where JB mentioned that the CFSv2(I think) is now calling for a strong Nino as winter presses onward.  

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Bohica was correct...Here is a quote from WxSouth on FB (aka Robert and Foothills)...

It's now September and many areas of the nation usually start to look forward to northwest flow cold fronts and drier airmasses sometimes bringing in cooler airmasses. I see no such thing, for a very, very long time, in most of the nation. Temps may be closer to normal in the far southern reaches of the nation for the next few weeks, namely southern Miss, southern Alabama, southern Georgia to Florida thanks to being so far removed from the big heat ridge encompassing the majority of the nation (and the east flow, tropical rain chances there). ~WxSouth

And indeed the Euro Weeklies are warm to very warm for the next 6-7 weeks.  Folks, looks like summer will not end until mid-late October.  Hopefully that changes.  We need a fall thread now that it is September, but it certainly won't feel like fall (for significant amounts of time) for several weeks. Not a fan....or maybe need a fan.

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13 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Bohica was correct...Here is a quote from WxSouth on FB (aka Robert and Foothills)...

It's now September and many areas of the nation usually start to look forward to northwest flow cold fronts and drier airmasses sometimes bringing in cooler airmasses. I see no such thing, for a very, very long time, in most of the nation. Temps may be closer to normal in the far southern reaches of the nation for the next few weeks, namely southern Miss, southern Alabama, southern Georgia to Florida thanks to being so far removed from the big heat ridge encompassing the majority of the nation (and the east flow, tropical rain chances there). ~WxSouth

And indeed the Euro Weeklies are warm to very warm for the next 6-7 weeks.  Folks, looks like summer will not end until mid-late October.  Hopefully that changes.  We need a fall thread now that it is September, but it certainly won't feel like fall (for significant amounts of time) for several weeks. Not a fan....or maybe need a fan.

Yeah, hope of a timely fall took a gut punch over the weekend, though I wouldn't say it's entirely lost. Wouldn't be surprised if the tropics throw a surprise wrench in long term forecasts down the road. Overall, I'm not concerned with the local implications of a warm September as mentioned in my last post. Honestly, my main concern is what the setup means for tropical systems as we approach peak climo. While the verdict is still out on Florence, as a reservist for a respected disaster relief organization, that US coastline blocking high is somewhat unsettling. Much rather have cool shots + no hurricanes, but at least on the bright side, we have plenty to track. B)

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So what do we think about Florence at this point?  It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under.  The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. 

Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits).  If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. 

https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); 

EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 

Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. 

Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first...

More heat = sad face

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26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So what do we think about Florence at this point?  It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under.  The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. 

Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits).  If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. 

https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); 

EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 

Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. 

Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first...

More heat = sad face

Good catch.  Yeah, quick glance and interesting for sure.  @nrgjeff, you can't go into heat induced hibernation yet...does that look like it is going to make landfall or recurve just prior? 

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27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So what do we think about Florence at this point?  It seemed like the model camps had begun to come into agreement yesterday as Euro went OTS. This AM though, both EURO and GFS are back to aiming her at SE/ MA coast, with CMC as a last minute recurve. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS have all trended more positive and slower with the 500 mb trough that could pull her OTS and sharper with a small feature in the mid Mississippi Valley that pumps up the ridge she's forced under.  The decisive time as of now looks like Sunday night into Monday for the upper trough in the north Atlantic. Any potential hit is still a week out or more, but the features that seem to me that will govern her path are not so far off. 

Climatologically (defined here as me watching storms on this trajectory in my life) it seems to me a recurve is more likely with a path aimed at the Carolinas (obviously, "likely" isn't always reality and there are examples of hits).  If she does (if if if if if if and only if, not trying to hype anything here) run west into the Carolinas, we could be dealing with at least some rain from her. 

https://imgur.com/a/mVIrzFI (Gif showing the trends over 10 runs of GEFS of both the trough and feature in mid Mississippi Valley); 

EPS version of same gif: https://imgur.com/a/voj5rQ3 

Sorry still can't figure out how to get these to embed. 

Also, thought about asking what BOHICA meant, but decided to try and look it up first...

More heat = sad face

 I will say that if a big storm like that makes a run up the coast, it might cool off for a brief period....Something like that would shake-up the entire pattern.   

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Yes! Florence please go east of us and drag down cool air. Gordon to the west acts like whipping (with belt) warm front!

ECMWF ensembles (sfc low spaghetti) generally recurve Florence over/near the Carolinas. GFS is a bit more sea. Blue Ridge will depend on track and wind direction. Looking tough to get a lot of rain this side of Apps. Heat ridge bumps it away verbatim (billiard ball meteorology). But that's a 10 day forecast so we can hope..

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