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rolltide_130

Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

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There has been an awakening.. have you felt it? *Cue Star Wars theme song* 

But in all seriousness, I think it's safe to make a thread for Monday now. It's looking increasingly like this could be the first significant severe setup of 2018. The Euro has a very large trough dipping into the central portion of the country, and it's been holding on to that feature for a few days now. It's also got a BIG response from the LLJ, with widespread 50-60kt winds from E TX all the way up into IL and IN. 

500h.conus.png

850w.conus.png

 

On that note, the CIPS analogs have some significant ones making appearances, with 3/13/2006 and 2/5/2008 both showing up as of the 12z runs today.. Still a lot of time to change, but this one is worth watching. 

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There's a lot of time for things to shake out, and with such a large warm sector it's still pretty much anyone's guess as to where the biggest threat area will be. 12z Euro looked to put the bullseye in E TX. Wonder if SPC will do anything with the Day 4-8 outlook tonight.

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12z NAM, while 84 hours out and completely unreliable for a number of reasons (dry bias included), has quite the EML for this time of year over the warm sector with ML lapse rates exceeding 7.5 K/km..an interesting twist. Wonder if the GFS shows that too going forward.

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SPC keeping it very bearish at this time, currently stating potential too low to delineate an outlook in the Day 4-8 timeframe, citing little instability (north of 35N), a positive-tilted trough keeping the strongest flow aloft north of the warm sector, and an "anafrontal nature" with respect to convection further south.

Sounds like this might have to change, depending on how the models evolve.

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Not as enthused about this setup as I was yesterday. Still some time for changes, but models have generally backed off from the potentially significant risk they had before. TX could see something from this Monday or Tuesday, however.

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49 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

Not as enthused about this setup as I was yesterday. Still some time for changes, but models have generally backed off from the potentially significant risk they had before. TX could see something from this Monday or Tuesday, however.

Same old song and dance of the last few years, with a couple of exceptions.

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If you guys want some hope, check out @tlyzawx (Tornadotony) on Twitter. Basically says that there is a decent nocturnal tornado threat tomorrow in east OK/Ozarks

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Severe-warned storm complex (up to 60 mph winds, quarter size hail) ongoing near Brownwood and San Saba in central Texas.

We'll have to see how this evolves.  6z HRRR run predicts a decrease in intensity as it passes Brownwood, but the model placed the storm further northwest.  This same model also predicts stronger storms for the DFW area later on.

EDIT: best storm parameters are to the northwest of this complex (helicity, shear, EHI and the like), but it doesn't seem like we'll be getting a storm developing in that area to take advantage of those parameters.

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12 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

Turns out there was an EF0 in Johnson County, TX last night.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

joshua_ef0.png.dcd8340efcf8222f93d14ca23a830c98.png

 

That's where it occurred... right at the bend in FM 917. 

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