Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

WxUSAF

February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

Recommended Posts

Just now, mappy said:

Just making sure you guys were on top of it. :D 

I think PSU was referring to DT being behind on his recognition of the potential for the east coast. The modeled pattern did not just suddenly become more favorable overnight, as he seemed to suggest in his tweet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think PSU was referring to DT being behind on his recognition of the potential for the east coast. The modeled pattern did not just suddenly become more favorable overnight, as he seemed to suggest in his tweet.

thank goodness i have you to keep me straight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

The gfs op is showing a radically different progression. It retrogrades the block southwest so much that it links up with the eastern ridge and then gets partially absorbed and weakens. That's a disaster. But it's also not like anything else or it's own ensembles which retro the block west which encourages a trough under it and then eventually link it up with a pna ridge. That progression will give us some shots. 

We probably lose an early threat as the block crosses Greenland because there is an uber ridge over the east. The first few days of the blocking regime are wasted just getting that worked out. But as the block retrogrades across Baffin and into Canada that would be our window for something to cut under and amplify on the coast. Then if the block links with a pna ridge we could see a full latitude trough dig in the east and a storm could try to run the coast. Depending on how quickly things start to progress after maybe more then one shot but the clock will be running out by then. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

Just looked a bit ago and thought the same thing.  Wonky evolution, and while the block is trying, its not working.  That to me is why i wanted better ridging in the pac nw.  I know some suggested we dont want that, but from what I'm seeing...we dont want what its currently spitting out either.  Its one run and things are realigning, so I'm not too worried. yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My dig was at DT not you. 

Ninjad by Cape 

LOL yeah I know. WxUSAF mentioned something about it yesterday. I really haven't been following a lot, Ian tweeted me yesterday about getting 30" in March or some non-sense. That's my extent of knowledge. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mappy said:

LOL yeah I know. WxUSAF mentioned something about it yesterday. I really haven't been following a lot, Ian tweeted me yesterday about getting 30" in March or some non-sense. That's my extent of knowledge. 

Short version the euro has been way late to the party. So DT was late then acted like it's a new development even though we've been talking about it for over a week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pasnownut said:

Just looked a bit ago and thought the same thing.  Wonky evolution, and while the block is trying, its not working.  That to me is why i wanted better ridging in the pac nw.  I know some suggested we dont want that, but from what I'm seeing...we dont want what its currently spitting out either.  Its one run and things are realigining, so I'm not too worried. yet.

I agree. Not worried really as I don't have much expectation either way.  But as you mention even the most stout block in the perfect location wont do anything for us if the Pac looks like that. This is fun to track and learn however what a block can or cannot do for our situation.  The statement "if we could only get some help in the Atlantic with just some blocking" is always talked about.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alot of focus on the gfs op and the gefs this morning with little mention of the eps which, again, throws us a signal for something around March 3. Some key differences between those 2 ens families irt to the retrogression of the block and the wonky WSW movement of the 50/50 on the gefs. EPS is more of a stable look imo which would allow for several *chances* thru mid March whereas the GEFS has alot of eggs in one or two baskets so to speak. GEPS imo is somewhere in the middle but is clearly aligned more with the EPS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Go back and look at PSU's post last night with h5 looks for dif storms in March.  (Great post btw)

Only two have some ridging in the west....and its pretty weak at that.  Compare those looks to the eps from last night.  I'm not sure a big PNA ridge is what we want....at least history says it's not the deciding factor with good March storms.

eps_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.76a153f2392c63025f0c43dc9c3d27f7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. 

We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though.

Thought it was worth noting and see what others think.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. 

We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though.

Thought it was worth noting and see what others think.  

It's logical. An AK trough or vortex is typically a maritime air pump into Canada so the blocking is only displacing pac maritime air. Having the AK ridge allows more continental air to build in our source region. Not uber arctic stuff. Just more typical cold continental air. If you ran the temp anomalies between the 2 sets my guess is the AK trough would show a lot of AN temps in NA and vice versa. Just a guess without looking at anything. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×