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jaxjagman

ENSO

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Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives.

 

The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3

Nino-3-4-forecasts.png

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Subsurface is getting colder once again.Even seeing a pool of -4 around region3,to the east there has also been some cooling at the surface lately in the east.

 

 

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Resurgent La Nina tends to be nearly as bullish as +TNI for severe. If they both happen, even I might get tired of severe weather. Nah! :o

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On 2/26/2021 at 6:43 AM, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface is warming in the east recently

 

,

image.png

Either CPC just forgot to change the date or a adjustment was made to the last update

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880-.png

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As expected with the passing EKW,1+2 is warming up again.Subsurface has warmed some by the looks west of the IDL,didnt post the last update but it seems they now do adjustments every 3 or 4 days without doing the time stamp

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880- (4).png

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Yes it looks like the KWs are taking a toll on the cooler waters. Subsurface tries to hang in there but even that's not where it was a couple weeks ago. Maybe trade La Nina for +TNI.

At any rate the atmospheric response seems to have tipped its hand. Texas Panhandle overcame drought. Dixie Alley looks to have a true warm sector Wednesday. Regardless of the La Nina or TNI outcome, the atmosphere has the imprint which can last several weeks or even a few months longer than the SSTs.

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Subsurface is slightly warmer in the east, and also cooler east of the IDL.Surface has been cooling the last few days other than 4.CFS shows a KW coming through next week.Few days ago the CFS showed a stronger EKW,but not the past couple days.

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880- (5).png

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If we don't get a +TNI we get resurgent La Nina. Sounds like it's either bullish severe, or bullish severe. Trend sure is active both Plains and South.

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Starting to see some warming once again  within the subsurface in the east.Nina looks like crap right now but east of the IDL has been cooling.NMME models are showing a potential resurgent NINA upcoming  into this winter seemingly

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880- (9).png

nino34-rescaling-ENSMEAN-png-563×450-.png

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Hey @Blue Moon this is a seasonal thread. 

ENSO discussions are for the 3-18 month range. We all knew La Nina would fade. Everything is going exactly as we have foreseen.

Read more and post less, Sport. 

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5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Hey @Blue Moon this is a seasonal thread. 

ENSO discussions are for the 3-18 month range. We all knew La Nina would fade. Everything is going exactly as we have foreseen.

Read more and post less, Sport. 

Wow, you sure are sensitive. My post wasn't a knock on yours. You don't need to interpret it that way.

 

If you think I misunderstood something there's no need to be a dick.

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You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. 

Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers.

However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. 

Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers.

However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

LOL..you better not leave us,your opinion means to much here,I've learned alot from you as i am sure many others would vouch my same opinion.

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. 

Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers.

However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

This is ridiculous. I am new to the board and have never, and will never, be a troll in any fashion here.

You are telling me this all because I replied to one of your posts that called for increased severe weather? I replied with a single word. Sorry if I didn't understand your forecast- I didn't realized this ENSO thread pertained only to forecasts that were 3 or greater months in the future. In my defense I did not see anything that indicated that was the case on the subforum.

Not everyone on these forums is as educated in meteorology as you, and that includes me. In my first post on this site I explained that I am here for a learning experience. I find it nothing short of asinine that you are calling me a troll simply for responding to a post that I interpreted as one of your forecasts. No one likes such a condescending remark such as "post less" which makes anyone feel he/she isn't welcome to contribute.

Your post from February- if that is intended for the long range, what period of time should we be looking for then? If you were truly predicting a loaded severe weather pattern for the Tennessee Valley for March-May then you need to stand by your prediction. It is offensive you are calling me a troll for following up on your forecasts, in an honest manner, wondering why we've had a (relatively) tranquil spring. 

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The strong EKW put a beating with the subsurface in the east,surface is still cool in 1.2.Seems to be signs of another KW towards the middle  of May.Seemingly, this could really warm up the surface in the east,kinda like a 1-2 punch with the last EKW,but on the other hand the subsurface is still rather cool in 1.2,guess we will find out soon enough

wkteq_xz-gif-680×880-.png

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Plains storm chasers will take an order of that KW and MJO.

Don't worry about it @Blue Moon minor scuffles are a part of Internet weather boards. We've had far more positive interactions than otherwise. 

Do keep posting. I forgot you're relatively new. We include all here.

 

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Plains storm chasers will take an order of that KW and MJO.

Don't worry about it @Blue Moon minor scuffles are a part of Internet weather boards. We've had far more positive interactions than otherwise. 

Do keep posting. I forgot you're relatively new. We include all here.

 

Awesome- let's put the scuffle behind us and move on. And I will keep in mind to not post in a vague manner (as I did). 

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