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Ralph Wiggum

January 16-18 Threat

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13 minutes ago, Newman said:

Here is the 21z RAP:

 

I really don't know what to think of this storm right now. Many models show one thing while others show another. However, I'm not as optimistic as I was this morning. Don't like how radar looks as of right now and it seems we seem to be in the screw hole between the stalled front and the developing coastal enhancement. Hoping things push in soon enough.

I agree with your assessment.  The back end is moving, but the front end is shrinking back away from us.  (I'm obviously not a met.......I guess it's shrinking back due to the coastal taking over?)  Think of it this way, a thaw is coming anyway so now the ground won't be as muddy :)  

 

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Looking at radar (and I know there's more to it than just radar obs) but I wonder if there will be any interaction at all. The rain out in the Atlantic looks like it's moving east, but not building back toward the west at all.

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11 minutes ago, DarthDoppler said:

I agree with your assessment.  The back end is moving, but the front end is shrinking back away from us.  (I'm obviously not a met.......I guess it's shrinking back due to the coastal taking over?)  Think of it this way, a thaw is coming anyway so now the ground won't be as muddy :)  

 

You got that right! Current forecast for Sunday is around 50 degrees so hoping things are dry enough to get in a round of golf.

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If you didn’t see this outcome from a mile away, I don’t know what to say.  Again, Miller Bs very rarely work out here and this set up looked terrible for some time.  Hopefully I have a nice little dusting when I wake up.

on to the next threat.  

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If you didn’t see this outcome from a mile away, I don’t know what to say.  Again, Miller Bs very rarely work out here and this set up looked terrible for some time.  Hopefully I have a nice little dusting when I wake up.
on to the next threat.  
Agreed, never thought this would be a big deal here in SE PA. However, the trend towards this as a Miller B was only 24 hours old. This was progged as a somewhat juicy fropa for 5-6 days of model runs. Upon seeing overnight guidance last night jumping more on the coastal development, the writing was on the wall for us. Still holding out for some light accums here. If anything this dry slot and slower E movement may have put the kabosh on any plain rain as temps are around freezing here already.

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