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jaxjagman

Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Pattern may open the door for severe in our Region about a week into May, iff the system does not dig into a cold bowling ball. In May you'd think we'd have a warm sector! Ensembles have a system traversing the CONUS. Weekly charts have a warmer look week 2 but an East trough week 3. I infer the transition is our system; so, ensembles and weeklies are somewhat in sync.

MJO is forecast to go into more favorable phases deeper into May if the GLAAM stays low/Nina which may be a tough forecast 3-4 weeks out. If the MJO forecast is right it could bring one more chance to the Southeast. However, the above signal shifts into the Plains late May. If either the MJO or AAM fail, May could revert back to the quiet cool regime.

Chance for a KW week 3-4 as you mentioned also.Upper trough being shown right now won't be much of any severe weather in the Valley upcoming unless that changes

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On 4/15/2018 at 5:13 PM, jaxjagman said:

Seems like the potential for a strong system around the 1st of May,though this could be occluded by the looks.The SOI has recently made some wild swings recently,but it's shown to have made around a 36 point drop recently.The BSR maps shows a cold front with a warm front lifting ahead.Now we also see in the long range looking into Asia(Korea),we see this potential from the Euro.We'll see.

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The frontogenesis on the Euro on May 1st looks fairly close to the BSR maps,only problem is the split flow right now.The BSR maps look well right now.Severe threat seems low right now into the first part of May,in the Valley

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 If  the BSR map is correct we could be looking at the potential for some good storms into week 2 of May.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.Along with the BSR maps shows a area of LP coming out of Texas into the Valley.The OLR has been showing up on this time frame as well.We'll see :)

 

 

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The setup for early-to-mid May could be a volatile one for strong storms for the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley. Potent shortwaves enhanced by southwesterly jet out of Mexico, cooler than normal upper levels in May, advancing dry lines out of Texas, strong bulk shear, etc.; it only takes one of those surface lows to come in line to make for a memorable event. Yes, obviously not wanting to overhype so far in advance. Yes, it's Spring and there shall be storms with increasing juicy Gulf moisture as per the norm, but the atmosphere may very well be conducive for at least one strong Southern outbreak.

 

 

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If the weeklies are anywhere right not only there would be a severe threat but a big flooding threat into wk 1 and week 2 of May.This system around  the first of May is looking better also recently,so we'll have to see what happens with this

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