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Mountain West Discussion

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I've been looking hard at years that had a super-cold Nino 1.2 in January on this data-set since Nino 1.2 was the coldest it has been (23.32C) since January of 1981:  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.data

Definitely some interesting Marches after Nino 1.2 is that cold in January. Hardly any readings in January that are even within 0.4C of how cold Nino 1.2 was in my lifetime. Something like 4/13 of my wettest Marches since 1950 show up in the close matches.

The January Nino 1.2 readings w/in 0.2C of 2018: 1956, 1971, 1974, 1975, 1976 

The January Nino 1.2 readings w/in 0.4C of 2018: 1950, 1955, 1959, 1963, 1967, 1968, 1981, 1997

Not exactly a lot of recent analogs.

Only two had a -SOI in February, which is close to a lock at this point as its -17.8 Feb 1-16: Jan 1959 (-15, 23.69C), Jan 1981 (-4.2, 23.06C)



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The 00z GFS seems to be getting more consistent with other GFS runs. The Euro is not too far off. It looks like Longmont to Cheyenne could get 0.3" - 0.45" of QPF and Denver may get in on this 0.3"-0.45" or possibly get less snow. Snow ratios could be higher than 10:1 for sure. Pivotaweather says Kuchera ratios are 24:1 for my area on Monday night, and I am not believing that till I see it, because 24 is a much bigger number than 10.


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