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Jonger

2017 - 2018 Winter Sports Thread

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Looking good for the weekend, another 4-8+" LES through Friday, then Friday-Sunday get some synoptic snow should mean decent riding potentially even into X-Mas week/weekend been a while that I have been able to say that.

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Heading up to the UP on Friday.

Heading to Allegan right now to hit the trails, takes me about 2 hrs to get to the trailhead from my house.

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My son and I are heading up tomorrow evening and ridding Friday from our place to the bridge for lunch and back. Coming home Friday night. You're welcome to come with us Jonger.

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3 minutes ago, slow poke said:

My son and I are heading up tomorrow evening and ridding Friday from our place to the bridge for lunch and back. Coming home Friday night. You're welcome to come with us Jonger.

I need to have my primary and secondary clutch rebuilt before I can ride. I might actually drag the sled up to Traverse City and drop it off for a few days. I'll take you up on the offer soon though. The clutch has 8,000 miles on it without any maintenance, it's a ticking timebomb.

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4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

I hope your right still a lot of uncertainty with it.

The rain is going to happen, that's for certain. It just doesn't look that long lasting. The system tilts and pulls cold air in quite quickly as it moves by.

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2 minutes ago, Jonger said:

The rain is going to happen, that's for certain. It just doesn't look that long lasting. The system tilts and pulls cold air in quite quickly as it moves by.

Rain can do a lot of damage especially .5 to 1.0 but cold air does come back pretty quickly and the following system is not cutting which will help.

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1 minute ago, josh_4184 said:

Rain can do a lot of damage especially .5 to 1.0 but cold air does come back pretty quickly and the following system is not cutting which will help.

Oh, trust me, I know that rain sucks.

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I've seen where a little rain, 1/4" or so, followed by cold air can help the trails actually. Helps build a good hard icy base. We'll see in a few days but I'm betting the UP north of 28 will be fine after the storm. The rest of the UP and northern lower, north of Grayling and west of 75 will have some ridding areas left too I bet.

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I've seen where a little rain, 1/4" or so, followed by cold air can help the trails actually. Helps build a good hard icy base. We'll see in a few days but I'm betting the UP north of 28 will be fine after the storm. The rest of the UP and northern lower, north of Grayling and west of 75 will have some ridding areas left too I bet.

IMG_1575.JPG

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This was from Friday in north west lower Michigan, lakes of the north area, about a foot of snow on the ground at that time. The rain moved through up there already this morning and it doesn't  seem like they lost to much. There's going to be snow to play/ride/ski/sled in this week but the groomed snowmobile trails will have some rough spots for sure. Could be better but definitely could be worse.

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Upcoming weather looking much better, models been hinting at PV coming for another visit, latest GFS pretty pumped up on LES/System chances as well. Might get a decent snow pack built even if half of this verifies. Showing almost 60" for my area. 

 

 

Snow.JPG

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This Jan 2nd storm just won't settle on a track. Not liking the trend all that much.

The entire state of Michigan  is going to be out of commission for at least another 7 to 10 days if this keeps tracking the way it does. We get a below normal December temp regime and it gets erased by the Dec 26th turd. 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

This Jan 2nd storm just won't settle on a track. Not liking the trend all that much.

The entire state of Michigan  is going to be out of commission for at least another 7 to 10 days if this keeps tracking the way it does. We get a below normal December temp regime and it gets erased by the Dec 26th turd. 

The trend is not our friend thats for sure, its such a shame that 1 or maybe 2 systems tracking a few hundred miles to the west can wipe out our pack and a good portion of our season. 

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5 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

The trend is not our friend thats for sure, its such a shame that 1 or maybe 2 systems tracking a few hundred miles to the west can wipe out our pack and a good portion of our season. 

I'm a big fan of a suppressed pattern with clippers. A SE ridge of any kind will yield way to a zonal flow, which also lets storms shoot up to our west. Deep trough with clippers is what we want.

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5 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I'm a big fan of a suppressed pattern with clippers. A SE ridge of any kind will yield way to a zonal flow, which also lets storms shoot up to our west. Deep trough with clippers is what we want.

Pattern certainly looks pretty amped up, good chance for a biggie but also a good chance for a cutter, current system looks to pass well to my south east which would normally put northern mi in snow but there is so much warm air pulled from the south it pushes way NW of the low track. 

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10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Pattern certainly looks pretty amped up, good chance for a biggie but also a good chance for a cutter, current system looks to pass well to my south east which would normally put northern mi in snow but there is so much warm air pulled from the south it pushes way NW of the low track. 

You need an amped pattern for a biggie, but 1 out of 3 cut to the west and wipe out the snowpack. Weather weenies who don't actually use the snow for anything prefer the amped pattern, but they also don't care if we are starring at grass and mud half the winter. I don't care how the snow gets on the ground, as long as it's there. Currently, it's not there. 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

You need an amped pattern for a biggie, but 1 out of 3 cut to the west and wipe out the snowpack. Weather weenies who don't actually use the snow for anything prefer the amped pattern, but they also don't care if we are starring at grass and mud half the winter. I don't care how the snow gets on the ground, as long as it's there. Currently, it's not there. 

Ill probably have over 20+" otg after this weekend, hopefully the early week storm doesn't due to much damage as end of next week is looking really good for LES. 

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The Jan 2nd event trended right back to the Tuesday solution. Much weaker, so the rain/warmth in the lower peninsula should be minor.

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