Cerakoter1984 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 Anything new in the long range weather world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 TWC says keep the summer shorts out for this winter. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 On Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 9:38 AM, JoMo said: TWC says keep the summer shorts out for this winter. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc TWC is literally a joke. First really good autumn cooldown situated to make its way through soon. Got some actual blocking showing up down the road as well. My analogs are still looking really strong at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Not a bad forecast. Could use the 'active storm track' a bit farther south though. http://southernindianaweather.com/wx/2016-17-preliminary-winter-forecast/ Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Accuweather's forecast http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-2017-us-winter-forecast-northeast-above-normal-snow-freeze-hurt-citrus-south/60277878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I heard that the Commodity Weather Group was something like 95 percent correct last winter. Their forecast definitely has my attention. Southern Indiana Weather has the match to my analogs though. A bit too shallow with the troughing but very good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Oct CanSIPS came out last night. Dec has normal temps (was above normal last month) Troughing across central and eastern Canada into the northern US. Jan is above normal and Feb is above normal but 'wet'. Feb has a SE ridge and a huge Aleutian high. Pretty big changes in just in one month. The SST's have a neutral to somewhat 'Modoki' La Nina look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Good stuff. Happy October everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said: September verified as closely as possible to my top 2 analogs. That I posted on the 1st or 2nd of the month. Actual vs Analogs Ignore the 2010 on there. It doesn't really change the map that much. It was too hard to find the '78 and '83 map I had already. 2010 was actually cooler in September but not by much. Same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This is what I have for the winter, if anyone cares - https://t.co/3JLYo58kad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 hours ago, raindancewx said: This is what I have for the winter, if anyone cares - https://t.co/3JLYo58kad Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 SST CA has updated. Has a warmish DJF, but a cold JFM. Nina/cold SST's a bit stronger from last month's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 22 hours ago, raindancewx said: This is what I have for the winter, if anyone cares - https://t.co/3JLYo58kad That's a very good forecast raindancewx. I really think you're spot on honestly. You used all the different common modes of long range forecasting and combined them into one forecast. That's the first time I have seen anyone else do that before. Thank you for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 11 hours ago, JoMo said: SST CA has updated. Has a warmish DJF, but a cold JFM. Nina/cold SST's a bit stronger from last month's update. The SST CA Forecast looks pretty realistic at this point. Not really much to add to it at this time. It leaves the door open for good cold in December at some point, which is something that I think we've all objectively decided is actually possible this year for the 1st time in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Beginning to look a lot like mid fall out today. :-) Freeze line dipped into the OK panhandle for a few hours this morning with the big front. Also noted, some pretty distinctive pattern differences with this cooldown. Also noted are the distinctively different AO and NAO. Haven't seen these paired up in October for awhile. Needless to say, think the analogs are still on point and I like the way things look going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 Word on the street is that Winter begins in December this year with a strong -EPO/-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: Word on the street is that Winter begins in December this year with a strong -EPO/-NAO. Yes sir. That's what I hear. That 83-84 analog is looking fantastic from where I sit. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 New UKMET: Pretty neutral temps: Pretty wet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 If you believe in any types of weather patterning as used in long range forecasting, today definitely should have our attention for future purposes. Also, saw this in another forum. Don't know where it came from but I've never seen the CFS look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 CFS v2 is too variable since it's ran so much. Difficult to find a year that Pacific SST's look similar to at this moment.....Maybe a bit like '86, and '93. They should start to change those as the GOA gets active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Weather5280 is posting their winter outlook on Monday. Will be good to see, since they have more of a western focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Ahhhh didn't even know someone made this forum, was wondering why the other one was so quiet. Anyways, hows everyone doing? These temps are nuts right now it feels almost like summer lol. Crazy crazy weather again!! So looking forward to winter but hope its nothing like what last season was ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Definitely windy and warm today. So many conflicting signals when it comes to winter. I probably won't renew my WxBell subscription in November since they raised the price. Also, I nearly drove myself crazy looking at it last year hoping for snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 6 hours ago, JoMo said: Definitely windy and warm today. So many conflicting signals when it comes to winter. I probably won't renew my WxBell subscription in November since they raised the price. Also, I nearly drove myself crazy looking at it last year hoping for snow, lol I don't blame you. I bought a year worth with some money I won in a poker tournament so it was essentially free. We really need to start seeing some responses out of the EPO soon. You can have all the -AO/-NAO you can stand but if the EPO is sky high then it does not good at all for us. I don't really buy the CFS ever. I think it's crap but it shows the pattern that I believe we should see based on the breakdown I heard of the Euro seasonal. Classic -AO/-NAO/-EPO with neutral to slightly positive PNA. I'm still hanging on to my analogs. Haven't really been convinced to change them yet. 83-84 and 59-60 are weighted pretty heavy at the top of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 JMA's 3 month forecast came out today..... Generally looks like a large ridge in the east Pacific and west and a trough in the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northeast. Temps look normal across much of the US though. It looks to have a decent La Nina on the SST's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I think my "weather" based analogs are on the right track. Check out the October analogs against the observed October to date: If it holds...warm Nov on the way for the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Judah Cohen's (guy who does the snow advance AO thingy) first guess for temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Looks like NOAA going with a somewhat standard Nina climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Latest IRI plume shows weak La Nina conditions Although they now have 'neutral' condition chances overtaking La Nina conditions for DJF Weak La Nina's typically give us temps around normal with availability of cold air just to our north. Recent weak La Nina's were 2000-2001 and 2011-2012. Dec 2000 was frigid and very snowy. Jan 2001 was cool and rainy. Feb 2001 was rainy and normalish for our immediate area. Dec 2011 was mild and rainy. Jan 2012 was very warm with some rain. Feb 2012 was mild and rainy with a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I wonder what the implications would be of La nina or cool neutral hitting bottom in the next month and starting to rise consistently through winter vs if it stayed Niña like through, say February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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