Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[csnavywx]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

 

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, csnavywx said:

CFSv2 has been doing that since 2020, give or take. A better system, UFS, is linked below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/jszhu/seaice_seasonal/index.html

Wow, they need to expand that y-axis. We're not seeing the full ensemble mean spread for late summer because it's cutoff by the current y-axis. Some of those individual model runs must be at or near BOE criteria as well.

[bluewave]

Lowest December extent on record just below 2016.

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic

Arctic sea ice extent for December averaged 11.42 million square kilometers (4.41 million square miles), the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month (Figure 1a). This comes on the heels of the third lowest extent for the month in November 2024 (Figure 1b). The December extent was 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2016, and 1.42 million square kilometers (548,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average.

Including 2024, the downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for December is 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) per year, or 3.4 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, December has lost 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) of sea ice, which is equivalent to three times the size of Texas.

 

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

UFS mean forecast lowered to just above 2012 levels for upcoming season (down from ~4M in Dec to ~3.5M)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's been 13 years since the last max.. You would think we would start moving toward loss exponentially again. Big difference has been cold 500mb and SLP over the Arctic in the warm season. Last strong High pressure Summer pattern was 2019. 

[Typhoon Tip]

[bluewave]

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-winter-sea-ice-2026/#:~:text=End of dialog window.,Flight Center in Greenbelt%2C Maryland.

For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979. On March 15, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5.52 million square miles (14.29 million square kilometers), very close to the 2025 peak of 5.53 million square miles (14.31 million square kilometers). Scientists with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder, note that the two years are statistically tied.

Along with the overall extent, researchers are also observing changes in ice thickness. “Based on what we’re seeing with NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite, much of the ice in the Arctic is thinner this year, especially in the Barents Sea northeast of Greenland.,” said Nathan Kurtz, chief of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “The Sea of Okhotsk that borders northern Japan and Russia also had relatively low ice this year — a region that naturally experiences significant year-to-year variability.”

Scientists with NASA and NSIDC found that this winter’s peak Arctic ice coverage continues the long-term trend observed over the past several decades. This year, peak ice cover was below the average levels between 1981 and 2010 by roughly half a million square miles (about 1.3 million square kilometers). 

Sea ice extent is defined as the total area of the ocean with at least 15% ice concentration. The area of the Arctic Ocean covered in ice expands in the cold of winter. Although much of the sea ice melts in warmer months, some ice remains throughout the year. Recently, less new ice has been forming. As a result, less multi-year ice has accumulated.

“A low year or two don’t necessarily mean much by themselves,” said NSIDC ice scientist Walt Meier. But viewed within the long‑term downward trend since 1979, Meier added, they contribute to the overall picture of change in Arctic sea ice throughout the seasons.