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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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We will see how theradar looks overt the next couple hours and the amount of snow showing up near the Red River will tell the take off what we can expect overnight.

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Pretty stark case of haves and have nots if anything close to what WFAA is predicting verifies. They had totals over an inch in Rockwall yet zip for Richardson

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Freezing rain/rain falling hard here in Irving, about 10 miles east of the DFW airport. I think the radar now looks more like HRRR than NAM.

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Just now, jhamps10 said:

Radar definitely looking more like hrrr than the nam in my opinion.. reports of sleet in North fort Worth at the nws office.

Gonna have to fill in pretty quick if we want to see the totals it was spitting out earlier

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Completely dry in north Fort Worth. Another hour and it's probably no go here. Not even a school delay. Dew is now down to 15 IMBY.
.

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5 minutes ago, Roy said:

Completely dry in north Fort Worth. Another hour and it's probably no go here. Not even a school delay. Dew is now down to 15 IMBY.
.

Looks like there is some backfill happening on radar so not quite over yet. Do agree that things have to change soon for any real accumulations

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7 minutes ago, Roy said:

Completely dry in north Fort Worth. Another hour and it's probably no go here. Not even a school delay. Dew is now down to 15 IMBY.
.

Right. HRRR seems keep pushing the radar blossom later and later.

Edit: Back to sleet in Irving. I think overall the radar looks good and start leaning towards HRRR.

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16 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Right. HRRR seems keep push the larger coverage later and later...

East and central TX look to be in for a real treat. Which in fairness they get screwed a lot by winter weather setups so they've earned it

EDIT: Decent sleet shower at UTD as of 9:30

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D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away. 

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4 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away. 

Assuming you mean the southern portions corrext?

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3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away. 

Which looking at radarscope, it probably won't end in the next hour.. radar filling in down by stephenville and ranger, all that coming in towards DFW

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2 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away. 

 

Just now, jhamps10 said:

Which looking at radarscope, it probably won't end in the next hour.. radar filling in down by stephenville and ranger, all that coming in towards DFW

He's saying sleet. I think the radar is show all snow for the metro now.

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Assuming you mean the southern portions corrext?

I'm getting pictures of accumulating sleet and light snow on cars and elevated objects in North Dallas and up in McKinney (380/75 area). Minor accumulations, but enough to keep roads wet. Wet roads with temperatures falling into the mid-20s in the next few hours could cause a flash-freeze (similar to what happened in BHM and ATL a few years back). That's my big worry for the next few hours. Anything that falls, even with surface temperatures below freezing, will probably melt as it hits surface roads and bridges. Soil temperatures are still around 40 degrees. That sleet/snow melts and makes the roads wet. Once surface temperatures fall to 25-26 degrees (or lower) those wet spots could easily flash-freeze into pure ice, especially on bridges and elevated roadways (which D/FW does not have a shortage of). 

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Nice downpours of rain in SSW Austin right now. This will help set the stage for the city shutdown which is already confirmed for tomorrow. Looking forward to tracking the sleet/snow amounts assuming they don't all occur before normal wake up hours. 

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Can't tell if the snow out by Granbury/Mineral Wells is heading northeast or east. Makes a big difference for north dallas burbs

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3 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Can't tell if the snow out by Granbury/Mineral Wells is heading northeast or east. Makes a big difference for north dallas burbs

Looks like e-ne to me..

Ft Worth isd 2 hour delay for now, Crowley and basically all of Johnson county closed for tomorrow.. 

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38 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

I'm getting pictures of accumulating sleet and light snow on cars and elevated objects in North Dallas and up in McKinney (380/75 area). Minor accumulations, but enough to keep roads wet. Wet roads with temperatures falling into the mid-20s in the next few hours could cause a flash-freeze (similar to what happened in BHM and ATL a few years back). That's my big worry for the next few hours. Anything that falls, even with surface temperatures below freezing, will probably melt as it hits surface roads and bridges. Soil temperatures are still around 40 degrees. That sleet/snow melts and makes the roads wet. Once surface temperatures fall to 25-26 degrees (or lower) those wet spots could easily flash-freeze into pure ice, especially on bridges and elevated roadways (which D/FW does not have a shortage of). 

Thanks Dave. Never heard of that. But even there is flash freeze, those ice spot should evaporate pretty soon, right?

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AISD and UT were the last ones to pull the closure trigger down here. It'll be a nice day off and hopefully we get enough mix to make it worth it

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Moderate sleet in Hideaway. Temp is 30 with mid 20s moving in. All going according to expectations. Still expecting 2+" of snow here. 700mb front did its job to light up the radar.

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6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

The batch to the west of FW is fading. Feels like DFW gonna get shafted again...

Line seems to be filling in from the north

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