Welcome to American Weather
wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

1,065 posts in this topic

I think is kind of a nuts winter personally, even though on aggregate it will probably come out relatively close to average in a lot of places. Part of me thinks TX could see some kind of fluke storm in late winter, like a blend of a Blue Norther with subtropical jet moisture.

October here is directly correlated to December in La Nina, so if we end up 3-4F colder, that alone favors more cold in the SW in Dec.

2016:   75.9F (+4.6F) -->49.7F

2017: ~72.5F (+1.2F) --> ??

I put this in the MO thread, but some of the analog years I like had good snows pretty deep into the South.

4u8cc1L.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our front is into the Panhandle now, though the temperature change is very gradual with 50s still even as far north as Kansas. Expect a few showers with the front, more the further SE you are. For N and E TX expect the front tomorrow morning (before daybreak likely in N TX) so temps will likely be steady near 50 with cloudy skies and gusty north winds along with light drizzle possible in the afternoon. If forcing is stronger than expected maybe someone will see a sleet pellet or two. Saturday morning will feature a frost for many and a possible freeze if skies clear. The weekend looks nice although a bit chilly. Sunday morning could bring a freeze to NE TX. Halloween looks to be chilly and wet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Along with the blustery chill in the air, models are still moving the line of light showers currently near Abilene across the state north of I-20 producing very light rain possibly mixing with a few sleet pellets. This happens often post front during the winter but is very rare in October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think this is a terrible winter for cold in TX or the SW. Might be for moisture...but it should be much colder than last year. The cold in October is displaced much deeper into the West than last October, which is what my analogs had for the winter. So its not going to be cold...we're just closer to the cold sourcing, so the cold shots will be more frequent and stronger.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I much prefer cold in place and hope for precip than the opposite during winter. The -EPO could be the dominant factor again this winter so as long as the PNA is not too high we are in a good spot. With not much of a STJ to tap into our snow will likely come from NW flow which is hard to predict.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Puerto Rico isn't directly hit by hurricanes super often - but the years it has been smacked around by big time hurricanes produce a pretty good match to October for a one variable match. Hot lakes, cold ID.

DNQXkyaVQAAhyun.jpg:large

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the things I've always struggled with is trying to figure out the moisture signal in the SW in the cold season, since it is so dependent on the PDO. PDO+ seems to largely cancel out La Nina effects here except in November, April & May. But it looks like the PDO can be predicted by matching the Nino 1.2 reading in October before Nov-Apr, and also the PDO value for March-August before the Nov-Apr. There are never a whole lot of blends that allow an acceptable close blend on those two factors, but when blended correctly, you predict Nov-Apr surprisingly well, at least for the 10 years I have tested so far.

Long and the short of it is that Nino 1.2 was frigid in October, which should keep the PDO somewhat negative, but it was still positive in Mar-Aug, which favors for somewhat positive. So I don't think this La Nina forces the PDO super negative just yet. Going by the Nino 1.2 weeklies, Nino 1.2 was -1.4C in October, v. +0.3C last October.

(the blurred out years for 2009 are 1967, 1991, 1991, 1991) Oh and I left out 2011, which is a blend of 1952, 1971, and 1999.

f7qEN05.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Ended up with another nice, cold, soaking rain yesterday. Probably got around 0.70" or so IMBY.

I got a bit over an inch in Hideaway. Down tp 38 here this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It won't be of much use for this winter, but I've been working on a "Modoki" calculator for winters - will be useful if we go into an El Nino. Works fairly well using Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 SSTs (raw) in October, with a recognition that each Box, Box A, B, C, must be calculated separately for the Modoki number to work correctly. The weak La Ninas and weak El Ninos seem to have their cold directly controlled by the structure of the Modoki signature, and with Box C warming quickly over time relative to the other boxes, certain types of events are becoming more likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.