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Mr Bob

Summer in the Tennessee Valley

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Meteorological summer is upon us and already looking at a hot weekend coming up as well as the third tropical storm of the year! 

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Temperatures are running hotter than forecast today. Might do so tomorrow north and west of Colin. Subsidence north and west of tropical cyclones and their precip usually causes temps warmer than MOS. Some of the high-res models pick up on it. Lower dewpoints will be welcome midweek.

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Looks like it is time to face some heat music. I like 100 better in the lee of the Apps, say South Carolina and east Georgia, but Tennesse is going to bake either way. Dewpoints should be fairly kind through the weekend. Early next week temps back back off a few degrees, but returning dewpoints will keep it feeling hot. Well, we live in the South.  :sizzle:  

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Like the chances of some good rains upcoming after the "Code Orange" we must get by upcoming for portions of the Valley.If this were the middle of summer we'd be seeing some "heat advisories" this weekend.By looking at the models and the WPC maps this occluded system is going to get hung up  coming in from the NW,more like a spring system.Euro and GFS  like always in the long range differ from instabilities.But it's looking up if you want rain especially possibly for areas that are in now in a severe drought in the southern parts

 

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Yes that system should bring at least some relieve to the moderate and severe drought areas. if we can get our lawns through early next week I think we are golden. Oh and of course I am watching upper level wind forecasts too. Father's Day 850 mb is cranking. 10 days out, but we are allowed to dream...

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 14 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 18 2016

...OVERVIEW AND WEATHER...

ANOTHER MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH DAY TO DAY CONSISTENCY AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY OUT TO DAY 7/SATURDAY...FOR THE
CONTINENTAL US.

AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
WITH A RETREATING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A STRONG CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US.  A ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONFLUENT FLOW.
ANOTHER ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTRY EVOLVES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC DEEPENS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A RESULT. THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT
REMAINS MORE TYPICAL OF SPRING THAN THE APPROACHING SUMMER.

THE CUTOFF LOW AND UPPER CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE NATION WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
FLOW...KEEPING NEW ENGLAND QUITE COOL AND COMFORTABLE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ON DAYS 3 AND 4/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY WITHIN THE
MEAN RIDGE AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL FOCUS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE DIFFERING AIRMASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
AND CAUSE THE FRONT TO BUCKLE NORTH AND SOUTHWARD WITH A GENERAL
TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST/THURSDAY...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.  THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR SOURCE
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...THE WEATHER SYSTEMS/FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED
WITH BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW APPEARS
LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST WITH PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ANOMALOUSLY
COOL FOR MID JUNE.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US...HEAT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD.  FARTHER WEST...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.  A COOL
SHOWERY START TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
NORTHWEST WITH SNOW LEVELS SURPRISINGLY LOW ACROSS THE WASHINGTON
AND OREGON CASCADES.  AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/DAYS 3 AND 4.  A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY AND SPAWN MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY/DAY
5. SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY/DAY 7 AS THE
MEAN TROUGH REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE COAST.

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WITH THE OPERATIONAL 00Z CANADIAN AND UKMET PRESENTING RELATIVELY
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PERIODS OF THE FORECASTS...THEY WERE MINIMIZED IN CHOOSING
WHICH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEST REPRESENTED THE MEDIUM RANGE.  AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE 06Z GFS APPEARED MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE 00Z GFS...WITH THE ECMWF QUITE
IN SYNC WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS.   THEREFORE...THE CHOICE OF THE
06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES WAS
USED TO GENERATE THE FORECASTS. A 60/40 MIX OF OPERATIONAL VS
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

KOCIN

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We are due for a summer whipping. The once progged closed low over the region is a fail this week. Looks like scattered thunderstorms with convergence zones a few afternoons. Then Thursday we get into light downslope winds off the Apps. So while the East enjoys a backdoor front, building heights and downslope compression turns up the heat in our Valley.

 

Next week the Big East Trough looks like a Big Fail for the South. Now it looks not as deep, and fleeting even to our north. A few runs have low press off the Carolina Coast. Even if it happens, just look for hot subsidence here on the northwest side. Appears that stubborn ridging will keep hold of the region. Figure most rainfall on NWP will come in lighter than forecast.

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Oh 1980 was ugly heat in the Plains. European weeklies have the next six weeks hotter than normal across the Valley and back through the Mid South. CFS is less hot in early July but its last two cool fronts have failed. Unfortunately I agree with the heat forecast by the Euro.

 

Only silver lining is the center of the ridge is mostly northwest of here, Upper Midwest or Northern Plains. It should save us from extreme heat 100s. However the summer weather pattern is becoming established. Maybe not extreme, but heat across our region should be quite consistent. 

 

Non-model data also favors heat. The Atlantic SSTs are warmer than normal. Nino to Nina transition is usually warm in the Ohio Valley. Some years, like this year, it bleeds southeast. Slowing/crashing global wind also favors heat.

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Oh 1980 was ugly heat in the Plains. European weeklies have the next six weeks hotter than normal across the Valley and back through the Mid South. CFS is less hot in early July but its last two cool fronts have failed. Unfortunately I agree with the heat forecast by the Euro.

 

Only silver lining is the center of the ridge is mostly northwest of here, Upper Midwest or Northern Plains. It should save us from extreme heat 100s. However the summer weather pattern is becoming established. Maybe not extreme, but heat across our region should be quite consistent. 

 

Non-model data also favors heat. The Atlantic SSTs are warmer than normal. Nino to Nina transition is usually warm in the Ohio Valley. Some years, like this year, it bleeds southeast. Slowing/crashing global wind also favors heat.

Yes, i agree with the plains per weeklies,the oven is on preheat as we speak.We'll get toasty here as well towards the end of the month what's fixing to happen in East Asia.The weeklies are even showing this,we'll be seeing the 850mb temps 20-25c for several days per weeklies.

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Maybe some rain towards mid week by the Euro.The euro which showed us dry in recent runs today is showing some better moisture Wed and possibly some better MCS Thursday with better winds.Guess we'll see.The weeklies which were showing the 850mb temps 20-25 C  backed off this towards the end of the month into July.It's now showing more ridge to the SW and trough in the east

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We just can't buy any good rain. I am hoping for some thunderstorms Tuesday night. However another wind no rain event would not surprise me. Even though heat is not extreme, drought seems to be setting in for the summer. Fourth of July break would match a tradition in recent years though.

 

Beyond that I think we will miss cool fronts here in the Southeast and especially over in the Mid South. I expect steady but not extreme heat, with the ridge centered Western US. Great Lakes to Northeast systems will only tease. We caught a break this past weekend, but deeper into summer I doubt fronts will make it through very well. 

 

Happy First Day of Summer!  :sizzle:

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We just can't buy any good rain. I am hoping for some thunderstorms Tuesday night. However another wind no rain event would not surprise me. Even though heat is not extreme, drought seems to be setting in for the summer. Fourth of July break would match a tradition in recent years though.

 

Beyond that I think we will miss cool fronts here in the Southeast and especially over in the Mid South. I expect steady but not extreme heat, with the ridge centered Western US. Great Lakes to Northeast systems will only tease. We caught a break this past weekend, but deeper into summer I doubt fronts will make it through very well. 

 

Happy First Day of Summer!  :sizzle:

And just when the weeklies backed off the extreme warmth on Thursday's run,today's run comes back with vengence

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Summer precip is a total loss without a perfect tropical system. It would have to move fast up here; then, slow down here. Yes the European weeklies are at least slightly hotter than normal the next six weeks. CFS hints at the obligatory July 4 break. Other than that looks like the dry pattern rolls on. Still believe heat will be steady but not particularly extreme, regardless of drought, long as the center of the ridge stays in the West. Cheers!

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Surface high pressure is expected to build across parts of the southeastern CONUS, potentially leading to excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley June 25 to 27. Some of these areas may experience heat index values of 105 degrees F or greater.

 

 

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Despite locally heavy showers, most of the region’s existing Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) Drought areas reported little — if any — rainfall during the period. The crux of the heaviest rain (2-6 inches) fell over southern and west-central Alabama, affording some localized drought relief in these areas. Across interior portions of the Southeast, soil moisture continued to decline rapidly; according to USDA-NASS, topsoil moisture was rated 46, 42, and 35 percent poor to very poor in Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee, respectively. To further illustrate the dryness, 90-day rainfall over the newly-expanded D2 area from northern Georgia into western North Carolina has totaled a meager 60 percent of normal or less, and in some areas below 40 percent. Farther north in Tennessee, dryness continued to intensify in eastern portions of the state, where 30-day rainfall has measured 40 percent of normal or less.

post-3027-0-80306500-1466686333_thumb.pn

 

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I do not see a change in the foreseeable future. WPC/NOAA has at or below normal rain the next 7 days. CPC/NOAA is trying to go normal/above rain in the 6-10 day Jun 28-Jul 2 but I bet we come in below normal. While I like chances of rain around Independence Day it keeps under achieving. Drought goes that way. I still say we need a tropical rescue to fix it.

 

RE the excessive heat outlook: Yeah this weekend is going to be fun!  :sizzle:

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I do not see a change in the foreseeable future. WPC/NOAA has at or below normal rain the next 7 days. CPC/NOAA is trying to go normal/above rain in the 6-10 day Jun 28-Jul 2 but I bet we come in below normal. While I like chances of rain around Independence Day it keeps under achieving. Drought goes that way. I still say we need a tropical rescue to fix it.

 

RE the excessive heat outlook: Yeah this weekend is going to be fun!  :sizzle:

Unlike recent past years, we are at least in the ballgame for some tropical help.

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Looks warm coming up the end of the next week work week.Euro and EPS is showing building heights in East Asia

 

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Did some text this morn,i'll use TYS for possible temps with a 596dm ridge hitting the trip digit mark next Friday.Slightly warmer for MEM,CHA and BNA with a 597DM..103F possibly,guess we'll see.

 

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Looks like a trough ridge pattern in Eastern China. They do not need any more of that action. Did you see the Yancheng tornado? Thread is in the main Weather Forecasting discussion.

 

Anyway the teleconnections and MJO are lining up for more heat in the Tennessee Valley after the Fourth of July. Enjoy our independence from humidity for a few days. Cruel reality is on deck again next week. 

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Might watch the Atlantic for some  possible TG in the long range

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Euro and GFS is showing more of a dirty ridge upcoming in the Valley.Let's hope.It will still be warm but not as hot up coming

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