Decent Analog to TS Joaquin Forecast Track

[vortex95]

Not an official hurricane, but I think it was, despite being in Dec!  This

is a good candidate in the Re-analysis Project to go in the database

as a 70 kt hurricane.

 

Take a look at the position of the main baroclinic 500 low that pivoted

this system back to the NW.  Looks like what is forecast by some

of models (GFDL and HWRF).

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us1223.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us1224.php

 

And it ended up moving due W to just off the coast of NJ, where

it weakened and got absorbed by the developing ET low to near

Hatteras.  Smaller shallow system dictated by a bigger non-tropical

low?  What would you call it?!

 

12/23/1994

An intense ocean storm, known as the tropical hybrid
nor'easter, lashed New England with high winds and heavy rains
on this day and continued into the 24th.  The storm had its
origins in the western Gulf of Mexico two days before and had
the characteristics of a hurricane, even as it reached 40
degrees north latitude.  It dumbelled around a regular
developing baroclinic low on the coast of the Carolinas, and
had an extremely tight pressure pattern, with a central
pressure of 969 millibars as it approached New England.
High pressure to the north only enhanced the pressure gradient,
and resulted in winds exceeding hurricane force over coastal
areas.  A wind gust of 88 mph was recorded at Walpole,
Massachusetts.  Sustained winds of 63 mph with a gust to 84
mph were record on Nantucket Island.  Falmouth, Massachusetts
recorded a 78 mph wind gust and a 74 mph gust was reported at
Ashaway, Rhode Island.  Plymouth, Massachusetts was deluged
with 4.85 inches of rain and Gloucester, Massachusetts checked
in with 4.72 inches.

[vortex95]

Some radar and sat images from the 12/23/94 event.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 of my favorite storms of all time, definitely a TS, that 74 miles an hour in Ashaway Rhode Island is my report. I was a ground truth observer for the NWS at the time using their equipment. Awesome, losing power Christmas Eve horrible

[40/70 Benchmark]

Only that abomination of a winter could produce a NE cane strike on xmas eve.

[CoastalWx]

Great storm. That thing was violent. Many people had no power next day. Lots of wind damage too. Vortex 95 all impressed when I brought up that storm years ago.

[Ginx snewx]

Great storm. That thing was violent. Many people had no power next day. Lots of wind damage too. Vortex 95 all impressed when I brought up that storm years ago.

I was working on the Thames in Groton at Pfizer, big surge. Crazy night with stuff flying every where

[weathafella]

Screaming northeast winds: check

Heavy qpf: check

Above freezing column below 5,000 feet: wtf?

[vortex95]

Screaming northeast winds: check

Heavy qpf: check

Above freezing column below 5,000 feet: wtf?

 

It was cold enough aloft for bright banding.  After all, it was December!

 

CoastalWx didn't live in NZW (South Weymouth) at the time, but look at these obs.  CBMAM, TS and GS in an outer band in the late aftn as it approached!  Alternative PT for a "winter" event?

 

Note: wind is in knots.

 

23-DEC-94

NZW RS 0355 -X M6 OVC 2RF 031/43/42/0124G49/962/

    RF5 WND 33V04 WR// T2 SET LAST=

NZW SA 0255 -X E9 OVC 2RF 041/42/42/0225G46/965/

    RF5 PRESFR PK WND 0251/42/ 827 102/ WR// T1 SET=

NZW RS 0155 -X E9 OVC 2R+ 068/42/40/0225G46/973/R5 WR// T1 SET=

NZW SP 0130 -X E40 OVC 2R+ 0222G33/974  T1 SET=

NZW SA 0055 E40 BKN 80 OVC 6R- 073/42/40/0323G35/974/

    WND 36V06 PK WND 0243/22 WR// T1 SET=

NZW SA 2355 E40 BKN 80 OVC 7R- 073/42/39/0224G46/974/

    PK WND 0251/34 82501 147/ WR// T1 SET=

NZW SA 2255 15 SCT E40 BKN 100 OVC 7RW- 083/46/38/0226G49/977/

    WR// T2 SET=

NZW SA 2155 15 SCT E40 BKN 100 OVC 6RW- 093/45/39/0220G33/980/

    PK WND 0235/19 WR//=

NZW SP 2139 15 SCT E40 BKN 100 OVC 5RW- 0222G28/980

    CBMAM MOVD NE TE39 MOVD NE T1 SET=

NZW SP 2122 E40 OVC 4TRW- 0222G33/981

    CBMAM MOVD SW CBMAM NE MOVG NE T OVHD MOVG NE OCNL LTG ICCG AE22

    SVR T1 SET=

NZW SP 2110 E40 BKN 80 OVC 6TRW-A 0222G31/981

    CBMAM OVHD-SW MOVG SW TB10 4E MOVG NW OCNL LTGICCG AB10 HLSTO 1/8

    SVR T1 SET=

NZW SA 2055 E40 BKN 100 OVC 7 098/46/36/0223G34/981/

    CBMAM OVHD-SW MOVG SW VIRGA OVHD PK WND 0243/41/ 825 197/ T1 SET=

NZW SA 1955 30 SCT E100 BKN 150 OVC 7 108/47/37/0221G38/984=

NZW SA 1855 30 SCT E100 BKN 150 OVC 7 118/47/38/0218G32/987/

    PK WND 0236/28=

NZW SA 1755 30 SCT E80 BKN 120 OVC 7 125/47/38/0212G21/989/

    PRESFR PK WND 0130/38/ 741 157/ 31=

 

 

I drove down to Sanwich MA that evening and it was pretty good for wind!

 

 

Obs from FMH:

 

24-DEC-94

FMH RS 1155 M3 OVC 11/2R-F 991/45/M/E0318G30/950/R- OCNL R/ 10706

    ONE 17// 20256 WR//=

FMH SA 1055 M3 BKN 6 OVC 3RW-F 991/45/M/E0316G30/950/WR//=

FMH RS 0955 E3 BKN 5 OVC 3R-F 991/45/M/E0316G33/950/WR//=

FMH SA 0855 E4 OVC 11/2R-F 984/47/M/E0518G30/948/R- OCNL R PRESRR/

    327 17// WR//=

FMH SA 0755 E4 BKN 7 OVC 11/2R-F 963/48/M/E0520G40/942/R- OCNL R

    WR//=

FMH SA 0655 E4 BKN 7 OVC 11/2R-F 960/47/M/E0425G48/941/R- OCNL R

    WR//=

FMH SA 0555 E4 OVC 11/2R-F 957/46/M/E0324G48/940/R- OCNL R/ 71780

    17// WR//=

FMH RS 0455 E4 OVC 11/2R-F 960/46/M/E0322G45/941/R- OCNL R WR//=

FMH SA 0355 E4 OVC 2RF 963/44/M/E0328G60/942/WR//=

FMH RS 0255 M4 BKN 8 OVC 2RF 974/44/M/E0429G68/945/ 744 16// WR//=

FMH SP 0219 M4 BKN 9 OVC 11/2RF E0327G62/946/PRESFR=

FMH SA 0155 M5 BKN 10 OVC 21/2RF 987/44/M/0327G68/949/WR//=

FMH SA 2255 3 SCT M8 BKN 11 OVC 3R-F 024/43/M/E0423G54/960/

    R- OCNL R WR//=

FMH SP 2211 3 SCT M8 BKN 11 OVC 5R-F E0424G47/961/PRESFR=

FMH SA 2155 6 SCT M14 OVC 5R-F 035/443/M/E0422G47/963/WND 01V07 WR//=

FMH SP 2121 5 SCT M13 OVC 5R-F E0322G46/966=

FMH SA 2055 9 SCT M15 BKN 50 OVC 5R-F 052/44/M/E0422G41/968/

    WND 01V07/ 634 15// WR//=

FMH SA 1955 9 SCT M16 BKN 70 OVC 5R-F 059/44/41/E0320G38/970/WR//=

FMH RS 1855 11 SCT M19 BKN 70 OVC 7R- 069/45/39/E0316G32/973/WR//=

FMH SP 1844 3 SCT M11 BKN 30 BKN 80 OVC 7R- E0218G32/974/WR//=

FMH SP 1827 M21 BKN 80 BKN 200 OVC 12R- E0218G36/976=

FMH SA 1755 M25 BKN 90 BKN E200 OVC 12 086/48/36/E0316G30/978/PRESFR/

    751 1577=

 

 

CHH:

 

24-DEC-94

CHH SA 1750 OVC 3/4R-F 47/45/0318G25/943/ 24 HR RAIN TOTAL 3.47 FIRST

CHH SA 0445 OVC 11/2R-F 49/M/0534G45/941/ 12 HR RAIN TOTAL 2.15 LAST

CHH SA 0352 OVC 1R-F 48/M/0540G52/942

CHH SA 0248 OVC 1RF 48/M/0446G63/942

CHH SA 0145 OVC 1RF 46/M/0444G56/947/PK WND 0463/13

CHH SA 0050 OVC 1RF 46/M/0443G57/949

CHH SA 2354 OVC 1RF 46/43/0440G55/949/ 74896

CHH SA 2255 OVC 1RF 46/M/0438G52/954/OCNL R+

CHH SA 2148 OVC 1RF 47/M/0435G49/960

CHH SA 2052 OVC 1R-F 47/M/0434G44/964

CHH SA 1951 OVC 1R-F 46/M/0427G38/966/ OCNL R

CHH SA 1845 OVC 2R-F 47/M/0424G34/969

CHH SA 1755 OVC 7RW- 48/41/0422G30/974/FIRST

 

 

ACK:

 

23-DEC-94

ACK SP 2327 W4 X 1RF 0455G70/944/LAST

ACK SA 2245 W5 X 1RF 49/47/0445G65/945/TE30

ACK SP 2215 W5 X 1TRF 0445G60/945/LGTCC/MOV UNKN

ACK SA 2145 W6 X 2RF 49/47/0442G60/949/PRESFR

ACK SA 2045 M7 OVC 21/2R-F 48/46/0435G45/956

ACK SP 2015 M8 OVC 3R-F 0432G45/959

ACK SA 1945 -X M13 OVC 4R-F 49/45/0430G40/962/F2 BINOVC

ACK SA 1845 M14 BKN 60 OVC 5R-F 49/44/0435G45/966

ACK SA 1745 E80 BKN 150 OVC 6F 49/44/0425G35/970/PRESFR OCNL RW

 

[billgwx]

Interesting speculation. I see that the storm did not fully merge with the digging closed low. If a similar scenario were to occur now, Joaquin could end up heading farther up the coast than the NC or VA landfall suggested by a lot of the 00Z guidance. This will depend a lot on how far west/southwest Joaquin moves before turning north or northeast. If not fully captured by the closed low expected to develop over the Southeast, it will have more opportunity to head farther north.

[billgwx]

Good call on this, with models showing the hurricane steered by but not captured by/merging with the closed low for a time. Looks like out to sea, can't totally rule out TS conditions on Cape Cod and the Islands yet if it passes by more closely a la GFS/GFDL?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is a great analog.....number 1 from CIPS: