mackerel_sky Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 <p> I'm not familiar with Glenn Burns (just started following him) , although I have seen his name mentioned in this forum frequently. Just came across this on his Facebook page.... Glenn Burns Looks like we get a chance to dry out tomorrow and Sat before an extended period of wet weather moves in next week. Gretchen Mitchell wow are we going to be another texas situation? Glenn Burns Will be watching that intently. If models are correct, 1-2 inches of tropical rains every day. That could mean around a foot of rain for the week!Ask Lookout about Glenn MF Burns!I heard the flooding rain and stormy pattern over TX and S Plains was going to breakdown next week, so it may be setting up over SE!? Like summer 2013!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 0z and 6z GFS gets the SE into a very wet pattern, with a ULL closing off over the deep south. The Euro shows this feature too, but it's farther east. If the GFS is right, there will be plenty of tropical moisture available along with enough instability for a good chance of showers and storms each day from about mid-way through the run until the end. But we've seen this enough to know that it's likely not correct with the placement of ULLs this far out. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Thought this was interesting... US National Weather Service Wilmington NC 10 mins · You may have noticed that even though we have been in a summertime pattern recently with a large high pressure offshore, this has not translated into the typical hot/humid weather with afternoon thunderstorms. The reason for this is because the airmass that is moving onshore the past few days is actually of Canadian origin, and is much drier than what typically moves onshore in these setups. The picture below is a HYSPLIT back-trajectory showing that air parcels are coming from Canada, and rotating clockwise around the large high pressure before moving into the Carolinas. Unfortunately, data only goes back to the 24th, but it is taking about 7-8 days for the air parcels to make this trip across the ocean. Another 2 or 3 days of this setup is expected with warm but mostly dry weather, before rain chances increase significantly early next week. Like · Comment · Share · 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Thought this was interesting... US National Weather Service Wilmington NC 10 mins · You may have noticed that even though we have been in a summertime pattern recently with a large high pressure offshore, this has not translated into the typical hot/humid weather with afternoon thunderstorms. The reason for this is because the airmass that is moving onshore the past few days is actually of Canadian origin, and is much drier than what typically moves onshore in these setups. The picture below is a HYSPLIT back-trajectory showing that air parcels are coming from Canada, and rotating clockwise around the large high pressure before moving into the Carolinas. Unfortunately, data only goes back to the 24th, but it is taking about 7-8 days for the air parcels to make this trip across the ocean. Another 2 or 3 days of this setup is expected with warm but mostly dry weather, before rain chances increase significantly early next week. Like · Comment · Share · 21 Yeah pretty cool, at least I finish out May without any more rain, if we don't get any surprises today or tomorrow I should end the month at 5.15" for May. but 3" of that came in the first week.....this stretch we are in now outside of the 10" I got the other day is the longest dry spell of the year for us I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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