baroclinic_instability Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am just a forum lurker, I seriously don't know where to post anymore. I tried to post my thoughts on this storm in the 0Z model thread, but it got buried because the 0Z Euro was coming out. My thoughts on the potential storm. Seems to be a number of schools of thought based off the 0Z thread....I guess this is just one of the many. In short, I find the strength of the eventual PV anomaly in the southern stream the key in how all this plays out, at least based on the evidence thus far. A lot of interesting discussion and analysis here. I haven't been completely up to date on this one, but doing a quick analysis, it seems the potential for a good east coast hit seems to hinge the most on how the northern stream eventually phases with the PV Anomaly near the Gulf States. The 0Z GFS essentially treats the PV as an "ejecting" S/W trough which incites cyclogenesis ahead of the main trough which develops a strong leading edge cyclone with cold air advection turning towards the east coast as opposed to heading southward towards the GOM. The other solution favored by tonights CMC, the ECMWF, and to a degree, by the 12Z GFS, is to phase the southern PV and "absorb" it into the northern stream which then enhances the strength of CAA southward towards the GOM. This in turn develops a much deeper upper trough and eventually a much more energetic baroclinic wave up the east coast. One thing I will say regarding the solutions is the amount of CAA all solutions develop in the low levels. It is difficult for equatorward low level cold air to suddenly shift direction and head eastward as in the 0Z GFS. It would take a sufficiently intense PV to initiate strong enough cyclogenesis to result in an eastward displacement of that low level cold air and the eventual northern cyclone the GFS develops. While the 0Z GFS certainly could be a valid solution, I find the deeper trough solutions more realistic given all model guidance have trended towards a much weaker southern stream PV Anomaly. As a result, I find a solution which results in continued CAA and a deeper developing trough more realistic then the oddball northern cyclone the GFS currently has. A weaker PV Anomaly, once phased, won't incite sufficiently strong cyclogenesis to shunt the low level CAA eastward but strong enough to enhance the continued equatorward flow of CAA, thus developing the trough deeper before ejecting the leading wave along the Gulf Stream. In terms of the GFS, the 12Z solutions seems more realistic given the circumstances. That is how I read it, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 When there is a snowstorm on the Map I can function on 2 hours sleep per night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 When there is a snowstorm on the Map I can function on 2 hours sleep per night Me too...once it gets inside 90 hours usually. This is unusual for me but the eclipse kept me up, so I guess that's an excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what else you gonna do at 445am lol....ill tell you one thing. If we get this snow and we get a clear night with no wind, wowsers, i could see temps in the single digits in the burbs and mid to low teens for the cities Yes, I think it'll be pretty cold after this storm, definitely some insane negative departures coming to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Let's get a foot of snowpack on the ground and then allow the -15C 850s to move in with hurricane strength NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm kind of surprised that the AFD from Mount Holly has a not-so-enthused feeling with the potential Christmas bomb, considering the decent 0z suite agreement sans the UMKET. ONCE AGAIN, ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON AN EVENT (OR NON-EVENT) OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND HAS ABOUT 6 DAYS TO HOPEFULLY SHAKE ITSELF OUT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 4PM MONDAY KPHI EXTENDED FCST. THE 00Z/21 42 MEMBER NAEFS /GFS-GGEM/ TRENDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE WITH A GLANCING BLOW...IF ANY. MEANWHILE THE 00Z/21 OPERATIONAL ECMWF TRYING TO LOCK IN NEAR THE COAST BUT ECMWF OP PERFORMANCE IN OUR MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA HAS BEEN UNSTEADY THIS FALL. AM APT TO SIDE WITH THE 42 MEMBER NAEFS TRENDS...ESPECIALLY AFTER LAST THURSDAYS 12Z/16 OPERATIONAL MODEL TRENDS FAILED FOR COASTAL NJ/DEL WITH THE ALWAYS CONSERVATIVE NAEFS PREVAILING. 00Z/21 NAEFS PROB FOR >5MM ARE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN WHAT WAS PRESENTED FROM THE 12Z/16 NAEFS FOR SUNDAY THE 19TH. IN THIS CASE...WE`RE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE THE PROPOSED TIME OF THE EVENT /26TH/ AND THE PROBS ATTM FOR > 5 MM ARE ABOUT 35 PCT ALONG THE COAST. ALSO...00Z/21 UK IS PRETTY FAR OUT TO SEA. SO A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE TRACK IN THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND W ATLC LOW. DETERMINISTIC DETAILS FOR THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH TIMING, TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am just a forum lurker, I seriously don't know where to post anymore. I tried to post my thoughts on this storm in the 0Z model thread, but it got buried because the 0Z Euro was coming out. My thoughts on the potential storm. Seems to be a number of schools of thought based off the 0Z thread....I guess this is just one of the many. In short, I find the strength of the eventual PV anomaly in the southern stream the key in how all this plays out, at least based on the evidence thus far. A lot of interesting discussion and analysis here. I haven't been completely up to date on this one, but doing a quick analysis, it seems the potential for a good east coast hit seems to hinge the most on how the northern stream eventually phases with the PV Anomaly near the Gulf States. The 0Z GFS essentially treats the PV as an "ejecting" S/W trough which incites cyclogenesis ahead of the main trough which develops a strong leading edge cyclone with cold air advection turning towards the east coast as opposed to heading southward towards the GOM. The other solution favored by tonights CMC, the ECMWF, and to a degree, by the 12Z GFS, is to phase the southern PV and "absorb" it into the northern stream which then enhances the strength of CAA southward towards the GOM. This in turn develops a much deeper upper trough and eventually a much more energetic baroclinic wave up the east coast. One thing I will say regarding the solutions is the amount of CAA all solutions develop in the low levels. It is difficult for equatorward low level cold air to suddenly shift direction and head eastward as in the 0Z GFS. It would take a sufficiently intense PV to initiate strong enough cyclogenesis to result in an eastward displacement of that low level cold air and the eventual northern cyclone the GFS develops. While the 0Z GFS certainly could be a valid solution, I find the deeper trough solutions more realistic given all model guidance have trended towards a much weaker southern stream PV Anomaly. As a result, I find a solution which results in continued CAA and a deeper developing trough more realistic then the oddball northern cyclone the GFS currently has. A weaker PV Anomaly, once phased, won't incite sufficiently strong cyclogenesis to shunt the low level CAA eastward but strong enough to enhance the continued equatorward flow of CAA, thus developing the trough deeper before ejecting the leading wave along the Gulf Stream. In terms of the GFS, the 12Z solutions seems more realistic given the circumstances. That is how I read it, at least. Great post and I can't find a single line I don't agree with wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am just a forum lurker, I seriously don't know where to post anymore. I tried to post my thoughts on this storm in the 0Z model thread, but it got buried because the 0Z Euro was coming out. My thoughts on the potential storm. Seems to be a number of schools of thought based off the 0Z thread....I guess this is just one of the many. In short, I find the strength of the eventual PV anomaly in the southern stream the key in how all this plays out, at least based on the evidence thus far. A lot of interesting discussion and analysis here. I haven't been completely up to date on this one, but doing a quick analysis, it seems the potential for a good east coast hit seems to hinge the most on how the northern stream eventually phases with the PV Anomaly near the Gulf States. The 0Z GFS essentially treats the PV as an "ejecting" S/W trough which incites cyclogenesis ahead of the main trough which develops a strong leading edge cyclone with cold air advection turning towards the east coast as opposed to heading southward towards the GOM. The other solution favored by tonights CMC, the ECMWF, and to a degree, by the 12Z GFS, is to phase the southern PV and "absorb" it into the northern stream which then enhances the strength of CAA southward towards the GOM. This in turn develops a much deeper upper trough and eventually a much more energetic baroclinic wave up the east coast. One thing I will say regarding the solutions is the amount of CAA all solutions develop in the low levels. It is difficult for equatorward low level cold air to suddenly shift direction and head eastward as in the 0Z GFS. It would take a sufficiently intense PV to initiate strong enough cyclogenesis to result in an eastward displacement of that low level cold air and the eventual northern cyclone the GFS develops. While the 0Z GFS certainly could be a valid solution, I find the deeper trough solutions more realistic given all model guidance have trended towards a much weaker southern stream PV Anomaly. As a result, I find a solution which results in continued CAA and a deeper developing trough more realistic then the oddball northern cyclone the GFS currently has. A weaker PV Anomaly, once phased, won't incite sufficiently strong cyclogenesis to shunt the low level CAA eastward but strong enough to enhance the continued equatorward flow of CAA, thus developing the trough deeper before ejecting the leading wave along the Gulf Stream. In terms of the GFS, the 12Z solutions seems more realistic given the circumstances. That is how I read it, at least. post in here anytime you would like. Would love to hear your analysis on upcoming events...One question, im sure you saw the 0z euro. What is causing that storm to be on the beaches of the gulf of mexico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 63, looks like the gfs is a little less amplified going with a stronger southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks slower to phase this run, but the ridge axis ahead of the shortwave is much more amplified which could slow the process down enough for it to make little difference. Doesn't matter much to me on the 06z GFS...just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 63, looks like the gfs is a little less amplified going with a stronger southern stream? That was Hm preffered solution. A stronger southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Great post and I can't find a single line I don't agree with wholeheartedly. It's great to see all these mets (and Ji) in our subforum, we've become the IT place for late night analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm kind of surprised that the AFD from Mount Holly has a not-so-enthused feeling with the potential Christmas bomb, considering the decent 0z suite agreement sans the UMKET. That looks like its from 4 PM yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's great to see all these mets (and Ji) in our subforum, we've become the IT place for late night analysis! Our dc met Wes only posts when things are bad and DT is nuts so model analysis is probably better here than anywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 84, sub 1016 over ark, starting to slow down a little it seems, northern stream is starting to drop down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tomb how did euro look in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 90 hr H5 chart is beautiful..northern stream diving south ready to kick this thing to the next level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 90, the ridge axis looks beautiful out west, storm slowing down now compared to 0z, northern stream coming in...sub 1016 low over northern ms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man...at 96 hours it's so close to a phase but it's off by maybe 50-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Surface low is over Eastern TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Tomb how did euro look in the long range? looks like another shot of snow from a pretty strong clipper post 240, and behind that looks to be another shot of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 90 hr H5 chart is beautiful..northern stream diving south ready to kick this thing to the next level. I felt really bad for you last week with all the time you sacrificed for that non event. Hope things pay off this coming weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That looks like its from 4 PM yesterday. The time stamp on that discussion shows 3 AM for today. Also, if you retrieve their previous discussion at 8 PM, the long-range discussion is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Amazing how the blocking and the +PNA ridge lets the first shortwave just slow down to a crawl and wait for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 102 sub 1008 low over ashville. lgt precip knocking on dc's door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Here we go at 102..the H5 phase is about to commence and the shortwave is turning the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 We're phased at 105 hours and the shortwave is over the Carolinas with the northern stream ready to swing through the trough base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Closed off over the OH Valley at 111 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 108 has a sub 1008 low in eastern nc...lgt precip up to phl...dc south lgt to mod...phasing already in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 This run is a little disjointed aloft so I wouldn't be surprised if it was east of the 00z solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seems like Upton is now on board! THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CHRISTMAS EVE TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAYS...THE EXACT TRACK AND DETAILS OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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