dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro trended lower with snowfall but still gives 4-6'' for the event. Wave 2 looks north and wave 3 looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 While the 12Z GFS was promising I look to be toasted as even now the 12Z EURO blasts the 0C 850 to my north. Looks like I'm out... Hope you all east of here do well! Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 While the 12Z GFS was promising I look to be toasted as even now the 12Z EURO blasts the 0C 850 to my north. Looks like I'm out... Hope you all east of here do well! Have fun! Yeah it's punt time here in most of MI. I will enjoy my very light sleet and freezing rain though I guess lol. Pretty sad that 24hrs ago the GGEM said 10" or more snow here (and GFS was still saying 6")! I hope you Ontario guys cash in good, rooting for you to get a potential big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro trended lower with snowfall but still gives 4-6'' for the event. Wave 2 looks north and wave 3 looks south. I saw this coming when I saw the EURO H7 RH plots. Seems the GFS solution is more plausible (wave 2 & 3 trending south), rather than one going one way and second going the other. Looks like the 2-4" with wave 1 is locked in at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I saw this coming when I saw the EURO H7 RH plots. Seems the GFS solution is more plausible (wave 2 & 3 trending south), rather than one going one way and second going the other. Looks like the 2-4" with wave 1 is locked in at least. Still lots of time to figure this out. Very complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro now the driest run for YYZ. Yesterday it showed over an 1". Willing to think it was an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro now the driest run for YYZ. Yesterday it showed over an 1". Willing to think it was an off run. 12z Euro has ~5-6 inches for Toronto and around 6-7" for the East end. Overall its drier than the other models. Most of the snow came in wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro now the driest run for YYZ. Yesterday it showed over an 1". Willing to think it was an off run. Basically the only model that is virtually a complete whiff with wave 3 (although the GFS trended towards us getting fringed). Not a lot of continuity with the models as of yet so all scenarios are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 UKMET 12z. The UKMET is about the same as the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 SREF mean for YYZ slowly approaching reality: 21z/5: 1.9" 3z/6: 3.3" 9z/6: 4.3" 15z/6: 7.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Right now there are two main camps regarding wave 2. The UKM/EC/NAM are very similar as they bring the snow swath NE of the GTA while the GEM/GFS move it right through the core of the city. Hopefully the 18z NAM helps clear things up but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Right now there are two main camps regarding wave 2. The UKM/EC/NAM are very similar as they bring the snow swath NE of the GTA while the GEM/GFS move it right through the core of the city. Hopefully the 18z NAM helps clear things up but I doubt it. Quite the perpetual difference especially given the time-frame were in atm. The UKM/NAM did pretty well with that last storm, while the GGEM had its ups and downs. I think a solid 2-3" is possible for most of the GTA tomorrow. Will likely end up being wet snow given the temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 12z GEFS look the best they have looked so far. 5 members going 0.75"+ and all but one member going 0.5"+ for TO by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah it's punt time here in most of MI. I will enjoy my very light sleet and freezing rain though I guess lol. Pretty sad that 24hrs ago the GGEM said 10" or more snow here (and GFS was still saying 6")! I hope you Ontario guys cash in good, rooting for you to get a potential big dog. The NAM has been on a bit of a hot streak lately. Go to model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z NAM coming in slightly south and definitely wetter with wave 2. Low level thermals cooler by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM way south at 09z Sunday vs the 12z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z NAM coming in slightly south and definitely wetter with wave 2. Low level thermals cooler by a few degrees. Yup, we get fringed with it now instead of a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 By 9z Sun the NAM has 0.2-0.3" for mississauga, 0.3-0.4" for Toronto, with 0.4-0.6" from Pickering to YGK. There is a small area of 0.6"+ from Orillia through the Kawartha Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yup, we get fringed with it now instead of a complete miss. RGEM favouring the GFS/GEM type solution. It's a bit of a crap shoot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 By 9z Sun the NAM has 0.2-0.3" for mississauga, 0.3-0.4" for Toronto, with 0.4-0.6" from Pickering to YGK. There is a small area of 0.6"+ from Orillia through the Kawartha Lakes. Wave 2 is north yes, but the Nam has a nice Wave 3 for the area. Edit: Wave 3 is looking like a nice 4-6" for the GTA. In total the GTA sees 7-8" with the East end around 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wave 3 goes to town on the NAM. Sfc low track from ORD-CLE-ERI-ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wave 3 goes to town on the NAM. Sfc low track from ORD-CLE-ERI-ROC. Nice track for MBY, it put out 4" just a hair south of me, maybe I'm not completely out of of the game yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 winter storm watch issued in the Buffalo-Niagara region from sunday-monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z NAM absolutely hammers the entire Golden Horseshoe!!! Low takes an ideal track along the south shore of Lake Erie, and has also trended stronger. The low wraps up nicely and slows up in W NY keeping the GTA in an intense deformation zone for many hours. Lake enhancement may once again be coming into play for Hamilton/Burlington/Oakville. I'd love to lock this run in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 EC has 5-10cm (2-4") for tomorrow afternoon and an additional 2-4cm (1-1.5") tomorrow night at YYZ. I'm still surprised there isn't even a special weather statement. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 winter storm watch issued in the Buffalo-Niagara region from sunday-monday night. Wouldn't have gone with a watch here but I'm surprised EC didn't even hoist a SWS. EDIT: my mistake, they did, for SW Ontario for -ZR potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 EC has 5-10cm (2-4") for tomorrow afternoon and an additional 2-4cm (1-1.5") tomorrow night at YYZ. I'm still surprised there isn't even a special weather statement. http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html You're surprised? It's EC what do you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wouldn't have gone with a watch here but I'm surprised EC didn't even hoist a SWS. EDIT: my mistake, they did, for SW Ontario for -ZR potential. haha I didn't know they hoisted one until you said that. I thought they would have put out a SWS explaining the complex weekend ahead. I anticipate that they put one out later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know neighbouring NWS stations collaborate with one another but does EC and the neighbouring NWS talk? It just seems weird when Niagara Falls ON has a SWS for a potential of some freezing rain but right across the river in Niagara Falls NY there is a winter storm watch for 7+ inches of snow. Someones forecast isn't going to pan out and generally I see the NWS being correct with EC issuing the warnings when the event has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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