Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion

[Lowershoresadness]

I mean I think I have broken a record this year with the most digital snow ever

[Prestige Worldwide]

6 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I mean I think I have broken a record this year with the most digital snow ever

Truth- easily over 100” of digital gold this year.  Unfortunately I’ve only had around 6” of actual snow.  
I believe we are this years winner of the most digital snow in the free world 

[SnowtoRain]

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said:

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

Looking at the changes at h5 that the Euro just made- towards the GFS- IMO we should see the Euro trend more to the GFS idea the next few runs. Should be interesting

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, SnowtoRain said:

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an  IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts? 

 

 

 

Narrow is right. It's not as simple as simply coastal vs. norlun/inverted trough though. Even a partial tuck will result in a lot stronger convergence into the trough and much better moisture feed. So the "in between" solution is significant rain to snow along and on the north side of the surface trough. Of course, if we're really fortunate enough to get a coastal (still pretty skeptical on a full capture), then we're dealing with another beast entirely.

BL temps are pretty poor starting out, so expect to have to waste a considerable amount of liquid getting that fixed. The stronger the lift and/or low, the faster that gets fixed.

[SnowtoRain]

@CAPE @csnavywx thanks for the quick recap, appreciate not having to wade through the main thread to get to the main things to track over the next runs

 

 

 

[AlexD1990]

The fact that other guidance is trending towards the GFS is quite frankly shocking, but very encouraging. Looks like newest GFS has some rain, but should still switch over

[SnowtoRain]

GFS is consistent with basically a hurricane forming off the lower shore of VA and dropping buckets of heavy snow. This is the 5th model run with a similar outcome. Not sure if all the ingredients were the same but the outcome is. Curious to say the least, especially only 48 hours out before the storm starts for parts of our region.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Some of you already know this, but we're moving to Kearneysville, WV in April (unless something falls through at the last minute- hopefully not!). The GFS would make for a nice grand finale for my nearly 13 years in Southern Maryland. 

We'll still be visiting Breezy Point every October and St. Michaels every December, so both sides of the shore will still be seeing us. I'll still be checking on this thread too occasionally. 

[AlexD1990]

19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Some of you already know this, but we're moving to Kearneysville, WV in April (unless something falls through at the last minute- hopefully not!). The GFS would make for a nice grand finale for my nearly 13 years in Southern Maryland. 

We'll still be visiting Breezy Point every October and St. Michaels every December, so both sides of the shore will still be seeing us. I'll still be checking on this thread too occasionally. 

We will miss you, although I bet you'll get more snow now! lol

 

 

also, holy NAM Batman lol.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If I lived east of I-95, I'd be pretty excited on this one, especially the Delmarva area. I think we are seeing some convergence on a scenario of heavy snow for areas east of the fall line, however do NOT discount this IVT setup to the northwest of the SLP. That could be SNEAKY good for some, but in a narrow corridor. I like the trends so far, but staying reserved. Busy at work, but thoughts will be made in the Heavy Snow & Ice Discussion later. I'll be popping in at times. 

Bringing this over from the main thread @MillvilleWx

 

Also just heard a crack of thunder at work in Rehoboth,and you know what they say about thunder in the winter...

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Some of you already know this, but we're moving to Kearneysville, WV in April (unless something falls through at the last minute- hopefully not!). The GFS would make for a nice grand finale for my nearly 13 years in Southern Maryland. 

We'll still be visiting Breezy Point every October and St. Michaels every December, so both sides of the shore will still be seeing us. I'll still be checking on this thread too occasionally. 

I remember when you started this thread. we had some great times

[Lowershoresadness]

guys I don't know. my brain says we have heavy rain change to snow at the end and we manage a few inches of slush. I just can't buy any more than that

[AlexD1990]

12 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

guys I don't know. my brain says we have heavy rain change to snow at the end and we manage a few inches of slush. I just can't buy any more than that

Its always good to keep expectations in check on this side of the Bay., but I cant help but to feel a little bit excited about this one. 

[SnowtoRain]

Seems like we are in the same spot with the models as yesterday at this time. 

[csnavywx]

Yep. We're 2 days til game time. Time to be serious.

Forecast map I put up at the office had 10-16" over most of the Eastern Shore. Might have to nudge that up. Smelling a death band in there somewhere.

[SnowtoRain]

Looks like best potential accumulation atm would be somewhere around Greenwood DE to the Atlantic coast. Not sure what to expect for the midshore area of MD. Euro has this area between the major snow producing features and the American models have the coastal close enough to be 10+. USUALLY in this setup the coastal ends up further east and only the aforementioned areas cash in. I suspect this will be no different but the American model super duo make it tough to totally discount a more generous solution.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

Looks like best potential accumulation atm would be somewhere around Greenwood DE to the Atlantic coast. Not sure what to expect for the midshore area of MD. Euro has this area between the major snow producing features and the American models have the coastal close enough to be 10+. USUALLY in this setup the coastal ends up further east and only the aforementioned areas cash in. I suspect this will be no different but the American model super duo make it tough to totally discount a more generous solution.

Latest EPS

Its happening

[AlexD1990]

This doesn't even feel real.....

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

This doesn't even feel real.....

I'll probably need to go to Easton Sunday evening and stay at the school for my class that starts at 8am. Hate to not be home for this but it is what it is. Driving in early Monday morning with potential blizzard conditions is probably not a good idea. They have a bar there so I'll be fine.

[AlexD1990]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll probably need to go to Easton Sunday evening and stay at the school for my class that starts at 8am. Hate to not be home for this but it is what it is. Driving in early Monday morning with potential blizzard conditions is probably not a good idea. They have a bar there so I'll be fine.

Would the school still have class? Bc of on campus housing?

[SnowtoRain]

12k NAM casually drops 20 to 30" across all of Delmarva. 3k a bit more tame 10 to 20". Both show a long duration event. HRRR at redic range looked similar in evolution. 

[SnowtoRain]

Correction 12k NAM is 20 to 40". 

[SnowtoRain]

Icon similar as well

[AlexD1990]

I think it's time to consider that this could truly be a high impact event for a lot of us. Heavy wet snow with crazy rates and gusty winds, near blizzard conditions...this could be one to remember.

[AlexD1990]

Dare I say we get blizzard watches? I hope I'm not tempting fate...

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said:

Would the school still have class? Bc of on campus housing?

Yeah all the students will arrive on Saturday. I have to make it there or they have no teacher lol

[SnowtoRain]

GFS slightly west with the heaviest band but really just noise level change between runs unless I am missing something

[csnavywx]

Liking the Easton to Dover corridor. I'd throw Salisbury in there too but I think SoMD and mid/southern eastern shore are gonna have to wait for the heavier rates to flip to snow. Got some work to do in the boundary layer first and we'll be attempting to do that during the day initially. Not really an issue after sunset ofc, but the sooner the flip happens, the higher the totals. 

Where that hellacious banding sets up is going to be pretty key.

Intense 850-700mb frontogenesis will be present and the highest rates will probably be where the lift from the fgen circulation crosses the dendritic growth zone:

 

 

 

Note where the 700mb front is:

 

 

 

 

Rates are going to be pretty intense just about everywhere but the heaviest will probably be where the max omega crosses the DGZ here (just on the cold side of the 700mb front). So, given the temp profile in this storm, we can use that feature as a quick ruler to see where the best banding/rates will probably set up initially.

[csnavywx]

If all of that wasn't enough to get excited about, some of these soundings are exhibiting the potential for some thundersnow (this one's from Dover):