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I85Greenville

NOAA announces significant investment in next generation of supercomputers

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The title and link say it all:

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150105_supercomputer.html?utm_content=buffer1a56f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

(Pasted content, from NOAA)

 

Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity.

“NOAA is America’s environmental intelligence agency; we provide the information, data, and services communities need to become resilient to significant and severe weather, water, and climate events,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA’s Administrator. “These supercomputing upgrades will significantly improve our ability to translate data into actionable information, which in turn will lead to more timely, accurate, and reliable forecasts.”

Ahead of this upgrade, each of the two operational supercomputers will first more than triple their current capacity later this month (to at least 0.776 petaflops for a total capacity of 1.552 petaflops). With this larger capacity, NOAA’s National Weather Servicein January will begin running an upgraded version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) with greater resolution that extends further out in time – the new GFS will increase resolution from 27km to 13km out to 10 days and 55km to 33km for 11 to 16 days. In addition, the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be upgraded by increasing the number of vertical levels from 42 to 64 and increasing the horizontal resolution from 55km to 27km out to eight days and 70km to 33km from days nine to 16.

Computing capacity upgrades scheduled for this month and later this year are part of ongoing computing and modeling upgrades that began in July 2013. NOAA’s National Weather Service has upgraded existing models – such as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model, which did exceptionally well this hurricane season, including for Hurricane Arthur which struck North Carolina. And NOAA’s National Weather Service has operationalized the widely acclaimed High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, which delivers 15-hour numerical forecasts every hour of the day.

“We continue to make significant, critical investments in our supercomputers and observational platforms,” saidLouis Uccellini, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Weather Service. “By increasing our overall capacity, we’ll be able to process quadrillions of calculations per second that all feed into our forecasts and predictions. This boost in processing power is essential as we work to improve our numerical prediction models for more accurate and consistent forecasts required to build a Weather Ready Nation.”

The increase in supercomputing capacity comes via a $44.5 million investment using NOAA's operational high performance computing contract with IBM, $25 million of which was provided through the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 related to the consequences of Hurricane Sandy. Cray Inc., headquartered in Seattle, plans to serve as a subcontractor for IBM to provide the new systems to NOAA.

“We are excited to provide NOAA’s National Weather Service with advanced supercomputing capabilities for running operational weather forecasts with greater detail and precision,” said Peter Ungaro, president and CEO of Cray. “This investment to increase their supercomputing capacity will allow the National Weather Service to both augment current capabilities and run more advanced models. We are honored these forecasts will be prepared using Cray supercomputers.”

"As a valued provider to NOAA since 2000, IBM is proud to continue helping NOAA achieve its vital mission," said Anne Altman, General Manager, IBM Federal. "These capabilities enable NOAA experts and researchers to make forecasts that help inform and protect citizens. We are pleased to partner in NOAA's ongoing transformation."

NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on TwitterFacebookInstagram and our other social media channels. Visit our news release archive.

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It sounds like they are just making their computers faster.....

 

Run the numbers through a crappy model and you still get crappy results....  now we get faster crappy results??  They need a new weather model not a faster computer jmo....

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It sounds like they are just making their computers faster.....

 

Run the numbers through a crappy model and you still get crappy results....  now we get faster crappy results??  They need a new weather model not a faster computer jmo....

 Fair point well made...

 

Does anybody know when the "old" GFS goes away and the "para" becomes standard? I assume that's what they're referring to in the release.

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 Fair point well made...

 

Does anybody know when the "old" GFS goes away and the "para" becomes standard? I assume that's what they're referring to in the release.

 

The implementation date has already been pushed back once.  I'd like to see the verification scores on the model because it seems less accurate but I don't have anything solid to back that up with,

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 Fair point well made...

 

Does anybody know when the "old" GFS goes away and the "para" becomes standard? I assume that's what they're referring to in the release.

 

A week from now assuming it doesn't get delayed again.

 

The implementation date has already been pushed back once.  I'd like to see the verification scores on the model because it seems less accurate but I don't have anything solid to back that up with,

 
Here's one for 500 mb height for 5 days forecast for the whole planet. Not great. (GFS para is PRX)
Biy7bOC.png
However, as you look at this link (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/), GFS para is actually better 8+ days out than regular GFS but it still doesn't beat Euro.
 
(can't really do much about that big blank space, btw...)

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Looks like a significant upgrade to me, faster processors, more power, higher resolution and a bunch more ensembles. That should work out well. The para, from 240-384 will be nearly as high resolution as the GFS is currently in the 0-192hrs range.

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It's amazing how fast computer tech has advanced.  It has totally changed the world.  Look at this consumer ad from the 80s. Specs and price should get your attention.

 

medium800.jpg

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It's amazing how fast computer tech has advanced.  It has totally changed the world.  Look at this consumer ad from the 80s. Specs and price should get your attention.

 

medium800.jpg

 

My first computer was a 486 .  It was a blazing 25mhz with a 2400bps modem.  Downloading pornographic photos back then took like 30-40 minutes per photo and I had to tie up the phone line the entire time.  Prodigy was also my first internet provider.... 

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My first computer was a 486 .  It was a blazing 25mhz with a 2400bps modem.  Downloading pornographic photos back then took like 30-40 minutes per photo and I had to tie up the phone line the entire time.  Prodigy was also my first internet provider.... 

 

My first was a Timex Sinclair I000S.  I think the 1000 stood for the standard 1k of ram upgradable to 16k.  I think the display was something like 32 columns and 24 lines but a few lines were reserved for system messages.  Everything else was add ons.  Cassette recorder to save, some more ram, etc. Thought it was the best thing ever.

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And in 30 years we'll be looking back at today's computers with a chuckle about how weak, expensive, and big they were. :)

 

Maybe you will.  Me?  Not likely.   :whistle: 

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You never know! :)

 

The only model saying I'll be around then is the Para GFS.  The Euro says I'm toast.  Never go against the Euro.

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Brad is at a conference in Colorado.  He's tweeting out lots of good information today.  Take a look at where our computer resources are spent:

 

l4aDKhj.png

 

Maybe this is why we should toss the RAP and lean more to the HRRR.  Also, more computer resources are spent on the NAM than on the GFS.

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