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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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5 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Just noticed 3-6" is in the forecast. I've been traveling this week so haven't paid much attention. Should be an interesting flight in this evening.

The discussion from cle mentions wnw winds 290-300.   I believe that's near our ideal flow out this way.   

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Looks like Lake and Ashtabula counties did pretty well with the brief LES last night. Perhaps we will see a burst of snow later this afternoon as the winds come around... but I'm not confident in the wind turning northwesterly enough for this area. It has been a pretty quiet first 10 days of December.  CLE's snowfall deficit is now 3". Next week looks active which is good to see. The euro has a nice storm in the Tuesday time frame. 

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Well that clears things up... :)

A digging upper level trough will move quickly east across the western half of the United States. The trough will deepen in response to 
amplifying ridge along the West Coast by Monday night. The positively tilted trough will rotate a potent positive vorticity maximum through 
the middle Mississippi Valley region by Monday causing cyclogenesis to occur over Texas. The surface low will then track northeast through 
the Ohio Valley Monday night.  The warm sector will remain  to the south of the forecast area and ample moisture will stream north with the 
system Monday morning from southwest to northeast.  A mix of rain/snow will take place across the area Monday into Monday night.

850 mb temperatures are expected to fall from around -6 degrees C to around -10 degrees C by Sunday morning. As the next system
approaches Monday morning, mid level temperatures will warm back to just above freezing across the southern half of the forecast area.
Will need to monitor temperatures through the column for the possibility for freezing precipitation in the overrunning precipitation threat.  
As low moves northeast of the area Monday night, cold air advection returns in the mid levels as 850 mb temperatures drop back to around -6 degrees C.

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22 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Short range models trying to give us a few inches over the weekend. Hopefully temps cool enough on Saturday. 

Pretty rare to get a storm track like that. Now that we get one temps are very marginal. Ugh. Hopefully we can flip to all snow and snag a few inches. 

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1 minute ago, dta1984 said:

Flipped to snow pretty early this morning.  Slushy 1/2" down even on paved surfaces.  Cle mentioned temps cooler than modeled.  

I was surprised when it flipped over around 8:30 this morning. Currently 32/32 IMBY. The wet snow is coating everything.

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Just a dusting last night. Pretty good storm track upcoming for Northeast Ohio... should be south enough to keep the WTOD from pushing this far north. Too bad moisture is so limited on the northern side. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

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12 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Just a dusting last night. Pretty good storm track upcoming for Northeast Ohio... should be south enough to keep the WTOD from pushing this far north. Too bad moisture is so limited on the northern side. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

Yep, agree.  Some short range trying to bump up totals.  Definitely a good sign as we get closer.  

Also Cle mentions some lake effect on Wednesday.

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6 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Yep, agree.  Some short range trying to bump up totals.  Definitely a good sign as we get closer.  

Also Cle mentions some lake effect on Wednesday.

No bad trends in today's model runs. Banding will be the key to seeing the higher snowfall totals. Should rip pretty well between 4am - 10am. Thinking 3-5" might be a good call. 

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Looks like the banding CLE mentioned yesterday set-up over the central basin of lake erie. Congrats fish! Which ever model showed the least amount of precip/snow did the best with this one. Maybe we'll pick up another inch or so today. Hopefully the LES performs tomorrow morning. Too bad the ridging moves in from the west so quickly. 

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Just now, NEOH said:

Looks like the banding CLE mentioned yesterday set-up over the central basin of lake erie. Congrats fish! What ever modeled showed the least amount of precip/snow did the best with this one. Maybe we'll pick up another inch or so today. Hopefully the LES performs tomorrow morning. Too bad the ridging moves in from the west so quickly. 

Ya bummer, I had an inch on the deck, that's about it.  Hopefully better luck later in the day.  

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Had 1.5" on the deck this morning.  Mostly from the Arctic front, but probably a little from yesterday afternoon as well.  Total so far 2.5".  Looks like some lake effect is trying to flare up. 

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24 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Had 1.5" on the deck this morning.  Mostly from the Arctic front, but probably a little from yesterday afternoon as well.  Total so far 2.5".  Looks like some lake effect is trying to flare up. 

The snow this morning fell in about a half an hour. It dumped as the band move south around 6am. Still snowing nicely in Chagrin. This is a really good wind direction for the area so maybe we can cash in a few more hours before ridging starts to move in. 

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14 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like an additional 1/2" fell during the day.  Possibly more, but too windy to account for.  Total at 3" since yesterday morning. 

That's right around the total I came up with. Enjoy the snow cover while it lasts. Winter appears to be going into hibernation for awhile. I guess the positive is that the lake will remain open for when the cold returns. 

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37 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The remaining snow cover should be gone today... although it has been resilient. Have to admit the past few days have felt great. 

Ya it made it longer that I thought it would. 

Looks like winter makes a return around new year's.  Until then I'm enjoying the warmer temps and dry weather!

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6 hours ago, NEOH said:

CLE's temp departure is up to +4.3 for December, and -9.2" snowfall for the season. Definitely a December to forget. 

It sure has been a Dec to forget.  Sitting around 20" for the season here isn't far off of the past few years at this point, but still a long ways to go.   At least the lake is staying ice free and relatively warm.

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Picked up a little over 3” today. Very wet but scenic. Looks like the lake effect may set up just north tonight but we’ll see. The 12z euro run was great for northern Ohio. Be great for half of that to verify.

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29 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Picked up a little over 3” today. Very wet but scenic. Looks like the lake effect may set up just north tonight but we’ll see. The 12z euro run was great for northern Ohio. Be great for half of that to verify.

Yep 3.5" here, a little hard to measure with the wind as well.  End of the weekend definitely looking like the next opportunity.  

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CLE finished December with a +5.6 temp departure. That's absurdly warm. The snowfall deficit is at -10" for the season. I'm around 23" for the season. It would be uglier without the November LES event. 

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1/2" overnight.  What an ugly pattern.  You're right, would be even more miserable without the November lake effect.  

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Good winters have been hard to come by last few years, 2013/14 was last really good one. And I can’t remember the last long-duration lake effect event, gotta go back to 2007...

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18 hours ago, carumba said:

Good winters have been hard to come by last few years, 2013/14 was last really good one. And I can’t remember the last long-duration lake effect event, gotta go back to 2007...

We are definitely in a string of bad winters. 2013/2014 was cold with slightly average snowfall. 2010/2011 was the last well above average winter IMBY - https://www.weather.gov/cle/Climate_Snowfall_2010-11

 

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