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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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10 hours ago, OHweather said:

Thursday night into Friday could be interesting for you guys...models trending a little stronger with the low pulling away to the east and throwing back some synoptic snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with lake enhanced snow continuing through the day Friday and some traditional lake effect Friday night.  Assuming the synoptic snow can produce even 1-3 or 2-4", the added lake help could push widespread 6"+ totals in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary belts...could even see a run at double digits if the NAM is onto something with a solid several inches of synoptic snow.

It was all sleet and freezing rain last night... no snow at all. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight/Friday. A low tracking through WV into PA is usually a great track for Ohio. The models are all over the place with snowfall... no agreement at all. I'd be more optimistic but given the way this season has gone my expectations are low. 

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Seems like most morning guidance backed away from the big storm idea.  Still should see 4" or so with lake enhanced and le.

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3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Seems like most morning guidance backed away from the big storm idea.  Still should see 4" or so with lake enhanced and le.

These messy set-ups typically deliver poor results. That said, 2-4" seems reasonable but guidance has been backing down as you mentioned. I'm not putting to much stock in any particular model solution at this point though. 

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The NAM being too amped on the synoptic snow didn’t help, but also isn’t very surprising, which takes away the potential for a very nice event.  
 

I still think 4-7” is doable for much of the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County into NW PA...the synoptic snow on its own likely produces 1-2” through mid morning tomorrow, with several hours of light to perhaps moderate lake enhanced snow late morning through mid afternoon, with a Lake Huron connection swinging west to east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt during that window.  I think that period drops another 1-2, locally 3” from mid morning through mid afternoon, focused on the higher terrain.  Lake effect conditions are fair Friday evening and night...although instability isn’t extreme and EL heights are 8-9k feet which is a bit modest, steep lapse rates and moisture through the snow growth zone, weak shear, and increasing convergence near the lakeshore may keep moderate bands going through the night.  They will gradually move and overall shift north by Saturday morning, but I could see Friday evening and night dropping another 1 to locally 4” in the primary Snowbelt.  It does add up to several inches in the higher terrain, mainly owing to the duration and increasing ratios.  Not a great storm, but it will have to suffice this winter... 

E917BE71-E420-483F-8BFD-DB35843A2CE5.jpeg.be56ff54b3b36e2b0dc5157bfbdfb433.jpeg

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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

The NAM being too amped on the synoptic snow didn’t help, but also isn’t very surprising, which takes away the potential for a very nice event.  
 

I still think 4-7” is doable for much of the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County into NW PA...the synoptic snow on its own likely produces 1-2” through mid morning tomorrow, with several hours of light to perhaps moderate lake enhanced snow late morning through mid afternoon, with a Lake Huron connection swinging west to east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt during that window.  I think that period drops another 1-2, locally 3” from mid morning through mid afternoon, focused on the higher terrain.  Lake effect conditions are fair Friday evening and night...although instability isn’t extreme and EL heights are 8-9k feet which is a bit modest, steep lapse rates and moisture through the snow growth zone, weak shear, and increasing convergence near the lakeshore may keep moderate bands going through the night.  They will gradually move and overall shift north by Saturday morning, but I could see Friday evening and night dropping another 1 to locally 4” in the primary Snowbelt.  It does add up to several inches in the higher terrain, mainly owing to the duration and increasing ratios.  Not a great storm, but it will have to suffice this winter... 

E917BE71-E420-483F-8BFD-DB35843A2CE5.jpeg.be56ff54b3b36e2b0dc5157bfbdfb433.jpeg

Thanks Ohweather, seems reasonable.   Cle going with 4-6".   Getting sleet currently.  I'll be glad when we finally switch to snow.  

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Thanks for the forecast OHWeather. Picked up around an inch last night. Snow is really picking up now and the radar looks great back to the west. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Thanks for the forecast OHWeather. Picked up around an inch last night. Snow is really picking up now and the radar looks great back to the west. 

Looks like we're getting a Huron fetch now.  Really dumping out there. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like we're getting a Huron fetch now.  Really dumping out there. 

Yep. Moisture from Huron is definitely helping. The radar is looking good with the main band on the west side and another forming in eastern Cuyahoga through western Geauga. 

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Definitely seems like a nice little event through the day today.  I'm pretty intrigued by what happens through the evening and into the overnight, conditions are nearly ideal for very efficient snow growth and as the sun sets it will accumulate even better than it already is, with ratios probably exceeding 20:1 tonight.  With a vort max over southern lower MI moving east across Lake Erie and extreme NE OH/NW PA this evening into tonight and the flow backing, increasing the fetch and also increasing convergence over the Snowbelt, I still think a few more inches could be squeezed out where bands are most persistent from the Cleveland area points east...with possibly as much as 6" in NW PA.  Soundings remain OK into Saturday, so it may snow in northern Erie County into the morning before lifting out over the lake or into extreme SW NY.

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Got about 2.5" here,  1" from the synoptic snow then that lake band swung through and dropped another 1.5".  Probably as well as we could have expected.

 

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I've got 6.5" on the deck.  Bottom layer is a little bit of sleet.  Been a fun storm so far!  Looks like a few more inches tonight.

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

I've got 6.5" on the deck.  Bottom layer is a little bit of sleet.  Been a fun storm so far!  Looks like a few more inches tonight.

Definitely one of the snowiest days we’ve had this winter. Measured about the same. Winds seems to be backing now so we may get another few hours of snow before it pushes off to the northeast.

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Picked up another inch overnight, total at 7.5".   Didn't look like too much got organized last night, other than the band Ohweather posted.   Seemed like it moved pretty fast.  

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Cautious optimism for a decent snow event. Biggest concern is how far north the WTOD gets. It usually has no problem push up to the Rt. 30 corridor. The far northern tier of counties look pretty good at this point, but given the way this winter has gone anything is possible. 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night.
Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line
in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the
Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory.

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CLE is calling for 2-5" which is a fairly broad range... they must be accounting for the snowfall gradient from north to south. No bad trends in the models overnight which was good to see. 

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Had 3.25" overnight.  There were some heavy returns over the area yesterday evening, but the ratios weren't too efficient.  Hopefully add several more inches with the artic front and lake effect later today. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Had 3.25" overnight.  There were some heavy returns over the area yesterday evening, but the ratios weren't too efficient.  Hopefully add several more inches with the artic front and lake effect later today. 

Same amount here.... although there was definitely some compaction. When I looked at the radar before going to bed I figured there would be more. Should add another 2-4" today/tonight though.

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This is almost like a "normal" stretch of snow for you guys these last couple of weeks, even if there hasn't been a huge storm to catch you up on your seasonal totals.  Tonight isn't a great setup, but it'll snow decently when the front goes through this evening with some lake effect tonight...I agree with 2-4" probably for most of the snowbelt and even Cleveland area. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

This is almost like a "normal" stretch of snow for you guys these last couple of weeks, even if there hasn't been a huge storm to catch you up on your seasonal totals.  Tonight isn't a great setup, but it'll snow decently when the front goes through this evening with some lake effect tonight...I agree with 2-4" probably for most of the snowbelt and even Cleveland area. 

Yeah it has been an ok stretch. The one thing that stands out is that just about every snow has been wet... which has made for nice scenery. 2-4" seems reasonable tonight. Its mid-Feb and this is really the first arctic front of the dwindling winter season. 

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Line of snow came through and was really lame.  Probably 5 minutes or so of 1 mile visibility snow.  I was hoping for a quick 1/2 - 1", but not even close.  Hope it does better for you guys out east.

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2 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

Line of snow came through and was really lame.  Probably 5 minutes or so of 1 mile visibility snow.  I was hoping for a quick 1/2 - 1", but not even close.  Hope it does better for you guys out east.

Same here, arctic front was unimpressive.  The snow even had some sleet mixed in.

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Low last night in Findlay was 5 above zero. Currently it is 40 in Findlay.

Low last night in Lima was 2 above zero. Currently it is 39 in Lima.

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Sure feels nice out with the slightly warmer temps and sunshine.  Snowpack is slowly melting.  I wouldn't mind the idea of an early dry spring for once.  

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What a weekend with the sunshine and mild temps. At this point of the season I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. The longer days are great. Not looking forward to a couple of days of rain. Whatever snow we get on the backside will not be pretty with the wet ground. 

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2 minutes ago, NEOH said:

What a weekend with the sunshine and mild temps. At this point of the season I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. The longer days are great. Not looking forward to a couple of days of rain. Whatever snow we get on the backside will not be pretty with the wet ground. 

Seems like a decent window for lake effect Thurs-sat.  

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