• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Trent

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

Recommended Posts

Nice forecast OHWeather. Looks like everything is still on track... although it seems the 06z models have shifted a bit north but that is probably just noise at this point. Precip wise the average among the models seems to be .75" - 1". Hopefully we don't waste too much on liquid. Temp is down to 37 IMBY. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently 38 IMBY.  Tough getting temps to drop with the lake temps in the low 50's. At this point it looks like it will be early evening before we flip to snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Currently 38 IMBY.  Tough getting temps to drop with the lake temps in the low 50's. At this point it looks like it will be early evening before we flip to snow. 

Heavier precip should help the temps drop.  Don't think any accumulating snow was supposed to start until this evening.  

Edit; just saw this in the discussion "

Slight concern that snow amounts will be
lower with the warmer air lingering into the evening across the
east. However for now we will not tweak them lower and remain
consistent with the previous forecast."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CLE didn’t have accumulating snow in until 7pm so I’m not quite sure what their concern is (I also think they’re conservative on the LES so losing an inch of synoptic doesn’t hurt much).  I think it’s all fairly on track, models all kept it pretty warm downwind of the lake until rates really ramp up after 5-6pm at which point the higher terrain should start to flip quickly...lakeshore may take until 8pm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few quick thoughts...

Looks like everyone except the immediate lakeshore (including Cleveland proper) and CAK to YNG is over to decent snow, with the Chardon cam looking like between 1-2" already.  I think the idea of 1-2" lakeshore/lower elevations and 2-4" in the hills in northeast/north-central OH for the synoptic snow is just fine.  CAK to YNG will come in closer to an inch or two of synoptic snow that far south. 

As for the lake effect, I'll attach a few images to go with this.  But it's an impressive synoptic setup with extreme instability and very deep moisture.  The only small fly in the ointment is some shear and gradually shifting winds, though I think the overwhelming positives will still result in fairly widespread heavy amounts. 

1420425671_BUFKIT1.png.65516b05412697a835a439586e5d6a2e.png

The thermodynamics and moisture become outstanding at CLE and ERI (CLE shown) tomorrow morning with extreme instability, very high EL heights, deep moisture to over 10k feet and instability and lift focused in the snow growth zone.  The profiles remain outstanding through the afternoon before inversions and moisture depth gradually come down through Tuesday night, though even through Tuesday night the lift and instability are well-placed in the snow growth zone, so any bands would be efficient.  There is moderate shear through most of the day tomorrow before the flow becomes better aligned tomorrow evening through early Wednesday, though the somewhat weaker flow may help offset the shear a little bit. 

So, synoptically there's a lot going on...we have multiple vorts moving through along with a large plume of 700mb moisture that is overhead for several hours Tuesday morning and early afternoon...

841264896_NAM700vort.png.f0a77d0ce861778c02887259bbfa29bd.png

1946634350_NAM700.png.b174b3b526d32ac4c30556f5413afaf5.png

We do gradually lose synoptic support and deeper moisture Tuesday evening as the vorts move east.

Lower down, there's good agreement on a trough extending across NE Ohio for much of the day (it's already developing) along with multiple upstream connections, including from Lake Huron:

1081942672_NAM925.png.21c7fd16da23deb2a4f09bcbdfa18c4c.png

791091107_NAMsfc.png.87177f814443dcccd53dc08c415d4804.png

This should focus a broad area of enhanced snow showers with a few heavier bands where upstream connections occur, and also decent terrain enhancement given the moist NW flow hitting the terrain all day.  This seems to favor NE Ohio for heavier snow than NW PA through most of Tuesday, though as winds shift more westerly late Tuesday better snow will shift east into NW PA (they'll likely see decent snow showers before the "better" snow shifts east into there later in the day). 

Tuesday night inversion heights and moisture depth come down, but convergence will increase over the Snowbelt as ridging builds overland and winds turn more W or WNW...there will also be one last shot of Lake Michigan moisture.  While banding won't be as intense, light to moderate bands with efficient snow may linger through much of the night east of CLE and through NW PA/SW NY.

Given a long duration of very favorable conditions late tonight through Tuesday afternoon and enough juice for some banding through Tuesday night, I remain aggressive with the lake effect forecast.  This map includes the 1-2/2-4" synoptic snow falling now.  The Huron band may go into the eastern suburbs or Geauga County for several hours which would bode well for the bullseye in that area...if this band occurs and sits anywhere totals will easily exceed a foot for the whole event.  It feels odd forecasting this much for a shorter fetch event with winds moving around some, but I think the positives are rather overwhelming...as always, we'll see.

660904389_11-11NEOHstormtotal.png.21017d3c39d77474edb896fdbb34e1f3.png

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lorain to Cleveland is 34-36 degrees right now, but you can already see the evidence of the LES north of Lorain on the radar, in the midst of the synoptic snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like everyone did well enough last night that the low ends will be hit most areas without too much effort today...we'll see if there's persistent enough banding anywhere for some spot to hit the high end of my evergreen aggressive ranges. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Measured 4" this morning. Warm ground definitely kept accumulations down on the paved surfaces. Nice band moving into the eastern burbs and geauga. Almost looks like a meso low forming in the central basin. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Incredible snowfall rates in Chardon right now, has to be 2"/hr .  Pure whiteout. 

There have been a couple of those bursts here in Chagrin this morning.. Looks like we got another inch or so since earlier this morning. There has been a lot of movement to the bands so far. The main band over the central basin is migrating east... hopefully that can lock-in for awhile over the east side. Snowing pretty heavily right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

There have been a couple of those bursts here in Chagrin this morning.. Looks like we got another inch or so since earlier this morning. There has been a lot of movement to the bands so far. The main band over the central basin is migrating east... hopefully that can lock-in for awhile over the east side. Snowing pretty heavily right now. 

My spotter at home measured an additional 4.5" since I cleared the deck this morning.  Running total at 8.5" .  I'll have to verify later

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

My spotter at home measured an additional 4.5" since I cleared the deck this morning.  Running total at 8.5" .  I'll have to verify later

That sounds like quite a bit more than what I've had at my office (near the high school). We tend to get more out east but I'm heading home shortly and will check. That band is starting to settle in one location which could make for an interesting afternoon if the winds don't shift much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

That sounds like quite a bit more than what I've had at my office (near the high school). We tend to get more out east but I'm heading home shortly and will check. That band is starting to settle in one location which could make for an interesting afternoon if the winds don't shift much. 

Ya I was surprised too, let me know what you come up with.   Should be a fun afternoon!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Ya I was surprised too, let me know what you come up with.   Should be a fun afternoon!

Its been dumping here so I didn't head home. If this band can lock-in this afternoon we'll have no problem hitting OHWeather's forecast. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like the shear kept bands a little bit too disorganized to really add up in any one spot (except for parts of Ashtabula County into western Crawford County who are getting crushed).  There should be another flare-up in a few hours as winds turn more WNW and we get some Lake Michigan moisture, but it's likely fairly modest...maybe another 1-3" in spots.

Edit: a couple of reports ranging from 8-11” near Wellington in Lorain County for the surprise of the storm so far. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've got 11.5" on my deck.  Measured in a dozen spots to verify away from the house.  Incremental measurements my "fill-in" spotter took add up to 13".   I'll see what other reports come in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Measured 10” storm total. Definite snow increase as you head east of 306. Looks amazing out there.snowmis redeveloping on a wnw fetch. Hopefully a few more inches before ridging  builds in.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Measured 10” storm total. Definite snow increase as you head east of 306. Looks amazing out there.snowmis redeveloping on a wnw fetch. Hopefully a few more inches before ridging  builds in.

Great start to the snow season!  The last winter we had sig snow in Nov was 2014-2015.  That year turned out decent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some big totals coming in from Geauga and Ashtabula.  A lot of areas at 10-15” so far adding the reports together.  We’ll see how things fill in report wise farther west.  Glad you guys both got into the double digits!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11.1" storm total IMBY. Pretty tight snowfall gradient from west to east. Rt. 306 seemed to be the dividing line. Nice to kick off the season with a LES event. The early season events seem to always have a WSW wind direction so it was great to have one with a NW wind for a change. 

IMG_2821.JPG

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The snow is down to patches imby. Certainly has felt like Winter over the past week. CLE's monthly temp departure to date is -9.0... which is really impressive given that area tends to run warm. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to be in NE Ohio for a few days, and am excited to at least see some flakes Wednesday night.  I doubt I'll see much in northern Summit County (maybe a dusting), but it's a pretty moist upslope setup so the higher terrain in Geauga could certainly squeak out 2-4".  It's marginal temperature wise and not that intense so the lower elevations will probably struggle mightily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm going to be in NE Ohio for a few days, and am excited to at least see some flakes Wednesday night.  I doubt I'll see much in northern Summit County (maybe a dusting), but it's a pretty moist upslope setup so the higher terrain in Geauga could certainly squeak out 2-4".  It's marginal temperature wise and not that intense so the lower elevations will probably struggle mightily.

Welcome back. I haven't been paying much attention to the current storm... didn't realize there was any snow potential. It does look there is a possibility for a couple of inches. You'll just have to take a short road trip from Summit county northeast into Geauga. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CLE finished November with a -5 temp departure. Given the cold temps you would think there would have been a snowfall surplus but we are running a small deficit. Hopefully things pick back up again. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Short range models want to give us a few inches of lake effect the next few days.  Hopefully temps stay cool enough. 

Just noticed 3-6" is in the forecast. I've been traveling this week so haven't paid much attention. Should be an interesting flight in this evening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.