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wildweatherman179

OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion

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NWS just cut the advisories for Central OK. The rest of the I44 corridor in OK still appears to have them right on through most of tomorrow with a gap right over my house. LOL. The story of my life.

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NWS just cut the advisories for Central OK. The rest of the I44 corridor in OK still appears to have them right on through most of tomorrow with a gap right over my house. LOL. The story of my life.

What did it do there lol? It rained here for just a brief period but it was about 32.8 the whole time. Temp is falling now but everything seems to have moved east of the area. I think me and you may take things harder as we are from the east coast and you probly have seen some mega dumpers too?? lol

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Weeklies are out....

 

It looks a bit like the JMA for week 3-4 with the ridge off the west coast up into Alaska (generally cold western US with a trough and warm eastern US). The overall look isn't changed from what I was expecting in my earlier post. Cold, then warming up for a brief period, then probably back cold. We'll have to see how far east the cold sets up, but it doesn't look like a premature end to winter anytime soon. 

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Here in midtown Tulsa, we got enough freezing rain that my car and trees has a very thin layer of ice. Temp stayed at 30/31 all day.

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What did it do there lol? It rained here for just a brief period but it was about 32.8 the whole time. Temp is falling now but everything seems to have moved east of the area. I think me and you may take things harder as we are from the east coast and you probly have seen some mega dumpers too?? lol

This morning, it got nasty for a couple of minutes. We only had a bit of rain, but it was plenty cold then (upper 20s) and the roads hadn't been treated so there were a slew of accidents starting in the predawn hours and continuing until 8 am or so. Since then, temps have been hovering within a degree either side of 32 F so whatever was frozen melted and no new ice has accumulated. In the past hour or so, temps have ticked back down to 31 F and we are still getting some mist but I am not seeing anything frozen. Dewpoint is 29 so, in theory, we might drop another degree or even two, but my dream of a New Year ice storm seems to have been dashed. The NWS is now even backing off the chances of a few mood flakes tomorrow night and Saturday. LOL.

This is only my second full winter in OKC, but the hard lessons I learned in New Jersey, sadly, apply here (and everywhere else) too: If Mother Nature wants to you to get snow/ice, it WILL happen whether you want it or not. And if Mother Nature decides "No snow/ice for you", well, your winter will be miserable no matter what you hope for. That was hard to accept when I was 8 and it is hard to accept 40 years later. LOL. If I am lucky enough to live another 40 years, I am confident that it will be hard to accept then too. LOL.

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Winter weather advisory out for here, SE KS and NE OK for freezing drizzle with temps hovering around freezing. Looks like a very cold rain with temps in the 30's for most of the area tomorrow. Central OK to SE KS may hover around freezing tomorrow though when the heavier precip starts. 

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Last night, NWS pulled all of their advisories for Central OK, while holding them for the Southwestern part of the state.  I was bummed, but I could see the logic.  Temps had been hovering a hair above 32 F all day yesterday, and, with no fresh push of colder air to bring them back down, it was a reasonable bet that we were out of the woods. There was off and on drizzle and mist much of the day yesterday and all night last night and none of it froze on any surface that I could see.  This morning, they put an ice storm warning back up, and, truth be told, I am not really sure why.  Temps are still at 32/33 F range with dewpoints in the 29/30 F range.  We are still getting occasional drizzle that is not freezing on any surfaces.  Maybe... MAYBE... I could see temps dropping a degree when the steadier rain starts and getting it cold enough for a bit of glaze on tree branches and car tops but there is no possibility of icy roads or even enough ice on trees to cause any problems.  Several large employers in Central OK... Tinker Air Force Base as one example... have closed based on the warning so this could hurt.  Worst of all, we know how people respond to this kind of thing. If this warning busts, the next ice storm warning is likely to be ignored by many, and that is potentially worse than a busted forecast.  Time will tell.        

 

EDIT:  As of 10:35, the freezing line is quickly retreating to the southwest as the steady rain moves in.  Unless I am missing something, there will be no ice in Central Oklahoma today or tonight.       

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Last night, NWS pulled all of their advisories for Central OK, while holding them for the Southwestern part of the state.  I was bummed, but I could see the logic.  Temps had been hovering a hair above 32 F all day yesterday, and, with no fresh push of colder air to bring them back down, it was a reasonable bet that we were out of the woods. There was off and on drizzle and mist much of the day yesterday and all night last night and none of it froze on any surface that I could see.  This morning, they put an ice storm warning back up, and, truth be told, I am not really sure why.  Temps are still at 32/33 F range with dewpoints in the 29/30 F range.  We are still getting occasional drizzle that is not freezing on any surfaces.  Maybe... MAYBE... I could see temps dropping a degree when the steadier rain starts and getting it cold enough for a bit of glaze on tree branches and car tops but there is no possibility of icy roads or even enough ice on trees to cause any problems.  Several large employers in Central OK... Tinker Air Force Base as one example... have closed based on the warning so this could hurt.  Worst of all, we know how people respond to this kind of thing. If this warning busts, the next ice storm warning is likely to be ignored by many, and that is potentially worse than a busted forecast.  Time will tell.        

 

EDIT:  As of 10:35, the freezing line is quickly retreating to the southwest as the steady rain moves in.  Unless I am missing something, there will be no ice in Central Oklahoma today or tonight.       

Does not shock me any at all, tulsa NWS is wishy washy with their forecasts. I have had 3 advisories now this season and not a single one was correct yet lol. I think though this storm system has given a lot of forecasters headaches on knowing what it was going to do or what exactly was gonna happen.

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Does not shock me any at all, tulsa NWS is wishy washy with their forecasts. I have had 3 advisories now this season and not a single one was correct yet lol. I think though this storm system has given a lot of forecasters headaches on knowing what it was going to do or what exactly was gonna happen.

 

I totally agree on the difficulty of the forecast.  I wouldn't have wanted to be the person who had the make the decision when, literally one or two degrees could make the difference between all out ice storm or a cold rain.  Honestly, I thought it was gutsy, but correct when they pulled the advisories down last night.  Then, the actual weather overnight... with temps hovering at or just above freezing... affirmed that call.  That is why it was so mystifying when they put the ice storm warning up again this morning (which, by the way, they finally trimmed back again in the past few minutes).  Looking at the state mesonet readings, it looks like only a few places in the far southwest of the state are seeing any precip the might be freezing and even those spots are right at 32 F so, at worst, the trees might be getting a glaze.  Now tonight, I get to watch the precip exit the area just before the changeover to snow happens.  LOL.  Definitely a bummer of a storm.          

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Yea man I was thinking last week this storm had potential, potential bust! lol....seriously I really did think something would happen from it cause all the local mets were gung ho as well. Nope Nope and more nopes lol. Tonight is so close too, 34 and heavy rain! That is the sort of thing that really gets me bummed out is temps so close and its a heavy rain! On a side not my mom back in jersey said its been warm there as well and no snow to speak of yet, which is unheard of by now for that area! Last year they had feet of snow after feet of snow lol....I was so jelous when my best friend kept sending me pics of the big storms that kept hitting them and dumpin all that snow! I think it was last season, man my memory sux anymore as I get older lol

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Yea man I was thinking last week this storm had potential, potential bust! lol....seriously I really did think something would happen from it cause all the local mets were gung ho as well. Nope Nope and more nopes lol. Tonight is so close too, 34 and heavy rain! That is the sort of thing that really gets me bummed out is temps so close and its a heavy rain! On a side not my mom back in jersey said its been warm there as well and no snow to speak of yet, which is unheard of by now for that area! Last year they had feet of snow after feet of snow lol....I was so jelous when my best friend kept sending me pics of the big storms that kept hitting them and dumpin all that snow! I think it was last season, man my memory sux anymore as I get older lol

 

Yeah, it was last winter that was a doozy back in New Jersey.  Last winter was my first one full time in Oklahoma so it was definitely hard to watch my friends and family getting buried week after week.  At least this year, they are having warm and nearly snowless winter (so far) so I don't feel like I am missing something.  LOL.      

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Disappointing day when you see blizzard warnings for a foot of snow in Hawaii (yes, I said Hawaii.) but yet we can't get snow here. Heck, we can't even get ice, sleet, a freakishly heavy frost, NOTHING. Just more rain or for an exciting change of pace, clouds. I guess the rain is needed but this is getting old already. Ok, rant over. It's a bad year when you hope for an ice storm but at least it would be interesting.

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I guess it is never too early to start tracking next weekend's storm is it?  :popcorn: Plenty of time for the models to shift the wintry weather north of us. Seriously though, it has been showing up on the GFS for the last couple of days fairly consistently. Any support from the EURO?

 

In the meantime, this week is going to be coooooold. Imagine what temps would have done with some decent snowcover here!

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Tonight a slight chance of freezing drizzle and then snow after 1am, tomorrow---a slight chance of snow before 7am, lol. I'll believe it when I see it tulsa! Anyone else sick of all this rain? I swear I havent seen the sun in over 40 days now, I feel so lazy and tired haha

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I guess it is never too early to start tracking next weekend's storm is it?  :popcorn: Plenty of time for the models to shift the wintry weather north of us. Seriously though, it has been showing up on the GFS for the last couple of days fairly consistently. Any support from the EURO?

 

In the meantime, this week is going to be coooooold. Imagine what temps would have done with some decent snowcover here!

 

Eh, not really anything big. It has some light frozen precip moving across OK/AR into extreme SE KS and SW MO late Friday night into Saturday. Temps are warming up though at that time. 

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Eh, not really anything big. It has some light frozen precip moving across OK/AR into extreme SE KS and SW MO late Friday night into Saturday. Temps are warming up though at that time.

Looks like mostly an ice/sleet to rain storm from what I saw.

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Wow. 37 and rain when I fell asleep last night and now 18 and snowing very lightly. Quite a change in 7 or 8 hours.

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Yep got a dusting of snow here, still lightly snowing out. Man did it get cold though! Nice to see though for a change before the next balmy warmup and rainstorm/slop mix on the weekend maybe?

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It's actually sunny and snowing here at the same time. Sugar snow. 

Same here, its real fine and sparkly lol. Sun is blazing for once, also a nice thing to see for a change! All this cold air this upcoming week, man it would have been nice to see a good tracked storm to dump some snow on us all!

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I am liking the looks of the weekend system. I think it may be able to provide us with some white stuff around here that amounts to more than a skiff. :)

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Pretty boring on the Euro, torch at the end of the ensembles as expected. Coming a bit later than the Weeklies had it though. Big system sliding down the west coast at the end of the ensembles. Perhaps it gets more interesting past the 20th?

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Pretty boring on the Euro, torch at the end of the ensembles as expected. Coming a bit later than the Weeklies had it though. Big system sliding down the west coast at the end of the ensembles. Perhaps it gets more interesting past the 20th?

Im not even going to get excited, the system for this upcoming weekend looks like its trending towards another washout or slop bag mix. The way this winter is going so far, well yea Im gonna be ready for spring here soon if this keeps up lol. I'm trying to contain my negativity, not working too well though :( . I just hate boring winters thats all cause its my favorite season!

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I hate Spring. We can just skip to summer so we can be closer to winter again and I don't have to deal with storm season.

 

There was a system that might bring some frozen precip on the Euro in the next 10 days (like around Day 8 or so) but it doesn't look big, and it may not be there next run. The warmup being shown on the Euro ensembles Day 11+ probably won't last that long as a bunch of energy dives into the western US. Weeklies in a few hours. 

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I hate Spring. We can just skip to summer so we can be closer to winter again and I don't have to deal with storm season.

 

There was a system that might bring some frozen precip on the Euro in the next 10 days (like around Day 8 or so) but it doesn't look big, and it may not be there next run. The warmup being shown on the Euro ensembles Day 11+ probably won't last that long as a bunch of energy dives into the western US. Weeklies in a few hours. 

 

What I was thinking....I don't hate the end of the EPS, you can see a deep trough trying to move east.  From my weenie eyes it was trying to boot the Greenland/Hudson Bay low.  Hopefully the weeklies throw us a bone in a couple hours.

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What I was thinking....I don't hate the end of the EPS, you can see a deep trough trying to move east.  From my weenie eyes it was trying to boot the Greenland/Hudson Bay low.  Hopefully the weeklies throw us a bone in a couple hours.

 

From the last weeklies. They were showing the ridging in the east and the troughing in the west the entire run. (after the 20th or so) so I'm not sure things will look very good for you all in the southeast. You can see the ridging build back over Alaska so there would be cold introduced into the pattern, and it would probably 'bleed' southeast but it still looks pretty 'meh'. 

 

Hopefully there are changes on the weeklies. 

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Weeklies improve after the 22nd or so. The general look is troughing in the west and southwest and ridging in the east. Around the 28th the troughing moves to the central US for a time. So it looks generally colder after the 22nd or so.  Looks like a storm on the 21st, but the snow and stuff will probably be to our west.

 

Been pretty persistent the last 2 weeklies runs with an actual storm around the 28th-30th that may take a good track though.

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Weeklies improve after the 22nd or so. The general look is troughing in the west and southwest and ridging in the east. Around the 28th the troughing moves to the central US for a time. So it looks generally colder after the 22nd or so.  Looks like a storm on the 21st, but the snow and stuff will probably be to our west.

 

Been pretty persistent the last 2 weeklies runs with an actual storm around the 28th-30th that may take a good track though.

Joe B says tonite the Euro week 4 is the coldest week 4 he has ever seen on its monthlies.  Hmmm.. Wonder how well that will turn out.

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Here comes the Arctic. Temps going to fall to around 10 tomorrow afternoon in my area. Wind chills below zero.

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