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Early discussion Winter 2014/15


SACRUS

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This post by Earthlight pretty much sums up that thread 

"it's a Christmas miracle  :lmao:  :lmao: "

 

Here's the discussion from the night before the 24th, when the models were so close to showing a monster:

 

"Agree...but comparing the 45 hr H5 chart to the 51hr 00z chart..it's ridiculous how much improved it is. Might not get the job done, but there are still some rather significant changes going on at H5 on the guidance. "

 

"Literally gut wrenchingly close at 54 hours when you watch the interactions aloft. "

 

"Yeah definitely much better. We need it to take a much more amplified, and slower track, for this to bomb and not head OTS. Nice trend"

 

"Closed off at 60 hrs with an absolute powder keg at H5...nobody along the coast is out of the game yet. "

 

"I am impressed with the end results. The NAM looked like garbage compared to the ideal 0z GFS and it still ends up close. If it had the exact same upper level height configuration, this would have been even more impressive than the 0Z GFS. NAM is also ridiculously unstable near the circulation, and convection going to play a huge role here. "

 

"We're teetering on the edge here. If the guidance continues to trend stronger with the shortwave that amplifies into OK/KS and then essentially scoops up the shortwave on the Gulf Coast...we're going to see dramatic results. If not, we're going to see a dramatic trend backwards. "

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This was the 0z/24 GFS, the night before Christmas eve for 2010. The north/west trend had already started on the GFS, at least:

 

 

Yeah but then it got worse at 06z/24. That run had almost nothing for everybody. The 12z run was the one that ingested the new data w/ the shortwave over OK/KS and showed the bomb. 

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I was really excited when I saw the 0z GFS on Christmas Eve morning. I had a feeling that the models were going to shift more west.

You weren't the only one. I had a couple of phone calls that morning. This guy ( you know ) was screaming like a little girl when the models showed a huge hit. He then called me back saying that the storm was a bust when hpc discounted all the models. :lol:

Going to guess Josh. Lol

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Yeah but then it got worse at 06z/24. That run had almost nothing for everybody. The 12z run was the one that ingested the new data w/ the shortwave over OK/KS and showed the bomb. 

 

This.

And then HPC started throwing out the NAM and GFS for "bad data".

That's what made it even more classic.

 

When the Euro re-joined the party, we all felt like little kids on Xmas morning.

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This.

And then HPC started throwing out the NAM and GFS for "bad data".

That's what made it even more classic.

 

When the Euro re-joined the party, we all felt like little kids on Xmas morning.

 

I've never been more confused in my life. It was clear to me that "initialization errors" weren't causing any differences -- but I couldnt' sit there and forecast 20"+ with the Euro 300 miles offshore. 

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The craziest thing on this forum was when the GFS, all of its ensembles, the SREF and Canadian all came way west -- and then the Euro went east of its 00z run giving us partly cloudy skies. It was almost insanity. 

 

I think even the 0z Ukmet came way west that night.

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Yeah but then it got worse at 06z/24. That run had almost nothing for everybody. The 12z run was the one that ingested the new data w/ the shortwave over OK/KS and showed the bomb.

This is the short wave that drove SSE out of the Dakotas right? I'm trying to remember the details without looking at old H5 maps.

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Yeah but then it got worse at 06z/24. That run had almost nothing for everybody. The 12z run was the one that ingested the new data w/ the shortwave over OK/KS and showed the bomb.

nothing was bad as the 12z runs on 12/2310 which all shifted OTS. Even some doubt was thrown in then given the lack of model support and hpc statements made that day.
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The craziest thing on this forum was when the GFS, all of its ensembles, the SREF and Canadian all came way west -- and then the Euro went east of its 00z run giving us partly cloudy skies. It was almost insanity.

Yea that was one of the the more memorable parts as well. The Euro was well ots that run.

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This is the short wave that drove SSE out of the Dakotas right? I'm trying to remember the details without looking at old H5 maps.

 

Yes. The classic story that comes from that is, a few days earlier (and i'm not even going to try to find this post) when everything was looking completely hopeless, there was one SREF member -- ETA 5 -- on those individual graphics with 9000 images, which showed that exact scenario playing out with the potent s/w coming through the plains way farther west than everything and "scooping up" the energy in the Gulf. I looked at it and said to myself, well, that's what needs to happen for us to get this storm back near the coast. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened. 

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Yes. The classic story that comes from that is, a few days earlier (and i'm not even going to try to find this post) when everything was looking completely hopeless, there was one SREF member -- ETA 5 -- on those individual graphics with 9000 images, which showed that exact scenario playing out with the potent s/w coming through the plains way farther west than everything and "scooping up" the energy in the Gulf. I looked at it and said to myself, well, that's what needs to happen for us to get this storm back near the coast. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened. 

Ya know John Hoboken is probably a less favorable location for Mt. Earthlight than Scotch Plains was

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Maybe it's the inner :weenie: inside of me speaking but I have a really great feeling about this Winter. It's always a crap shoot this far out but from what we can tell, things are looking good teleconnections wise.  

 

All of this talk about the Boxing Day Blizzard the last two days and seeing the board come alive with more posters has really gotten me into the mood for Winter. Now all we need are some 384hr GFS runs to wet our whistles. :snowing:

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Scotch Plains isn't really rural. Sure, it's not Hoboken but it's not West Milford either.

 

It's pretty suburban. Obviously there's a main road which is more populated than most "rural" NJ towns..but the actual residences and homes are very suburban. It's also 30 seconds away from the Watchung mountains. Things become much more rural just over those hills. 

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