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Significant SVR risk 7/14 or 7/15


Mikehobbyst

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Got that feeling as well! NEG NAO is making even me look better with him being a debbie downer right now :lol: that alone is victory enough for me today

why don't you read my posts throughly - I never said it wasn't going to storm at all I just said later then sooner based on current observations and it is already past 1 pm and some models want the storms/heavy rain in here between 3 and 5

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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why don't you read my posts throughly - I never said it wasn't going to storm at all I just said later then sooner based on current observations and it is already past 1 pm and some models want the storms/heavy rain in here between 3 and 5

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

Take it easy sir it was joke :lol: i knew what you said and was having harmless fun ;)

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Take it easy sir it was joke :lol: i knew what you said and was having harmless fun ;)

no problem - last night the NWS screwed up the timing of the line of storms coming across PA aand had to extend the watches and warning past 11 PM - so the greatest difficulty we are going to encounter the next 2 days is where and when the storms/flash flooding are going to occur - this is a nowcasting event for sure - models can only help us so much in this situation

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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mcd1367.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR
   WRN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 141706Z - 141830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE
   NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
   FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN
   THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1
   KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

 

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MT HOLLY ,

 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE

AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS

ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY

SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS

SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE

PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST

SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT

WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER

LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE

DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN

VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER

INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH

FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN

ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY

DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER,

THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

THROUGH THE DAY.

 

HRRR   has a line crossing between 4 and 6 ish . 

These tend to develop very rapidly and will run 78 and 80 due East .

 

I think we are still in that window , for selfish reasons I am rooting for darkness , When you have potential 

like this I root for a nitetime light show . 

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MT HOLLY ,
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS
ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE
PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER
INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.
 
HRRR   has a line crossing between 4 and 6 ish . 
These tend to develop very rapidly and will run 78 and 80 due East .
 
I think we are still in that window , for selfish reasons I am rooting for darkness , When you have potential 
like this I root for a nitetime light show . 

 

These are the types of events that usually make it look like midnight at 5PM.

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These are the types of events that usually make it look like midnight at 5PM.

ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND

   DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY

   WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.  

 

Could get a few nice wall cloud pics .

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BERGEN              BURLINGTON
CAMDEN               CAPE MAY            CUMBERLAND
EASTERN UNION        ESSEX               GLOUCESTER
HUDSON               HUNTERDON           MERCER
MIDDLESEX            MONMOUTH            MORRIS
OCEAN                PASSAIC             SALEM
SOMERSET             SUSSEX              WARREN
$$

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX                KINGS               NASSAU
NEW YORK             ORANGE              PUTNAM
QUEENS               RICHMOND            ROCKLAND
WESTCHESTER
$$

 

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ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND

DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY

WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION.

Could get a few nice wall cloud pics .

If the NAM/HRRR are right with that line everyone including myself should expect some wind damage and maybe hail. BIG thing that is helping areas along the coast thus far is the lack of seabreeze influence which no matter how severe storms get WILL kill them so that is very good for areas that me and you live. Instability should drop noticably over the next couple hours as well. Im even excited for this today! :)
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-

031-033-035-037-039-041-150000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/

NJ

. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON

CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND

EASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTER

HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER

MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS

OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM

SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-150000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/

NY

. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX KINGS NASSAU

NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM

QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND

WESTCHESTER

$$

Jeez again no STW for suffolk when it actually looks the best for severe weather this year yet IMO. Dont know why upton didnt opt for one just in case?
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If the NAM/HRRR are right with that line everyone including myself should expect some wind damage and maybe hail. BIG thing that is helping areas along the coast thus far is the lack of seabreeze influence which no matter how severe storms get WILL kill them so that is very good for areas that me and you live. Instability should drop noticably over the next couple hours as well. Im even excited for this today! :)

If you haven't noticed already Suffolk County was left out of the watch :lol:

 

Anyway the 15z HRRR backed off a little bit with the first line. Waiting to see what 16z shows.

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I think the most likely threat will be heavy rainfall as PW are through the roof. Soundings don't really indicate a strong hail signature as wet-bulb zero and freezing levels are rather high combined with low CAPE in the optimal hail growth zone. As for strong winds D Cape and low level lapse rates are rather weak.  

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I`m long 10k SLV  Aug 21- 22 call spread , B em at .18 .   

.09 - .11   and your`e upset lol 

With grains getting destroyed I had a feeling it was going to carry over since many funds deal with both. I posted about it last night. PB you should join us in the market topic.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/6-political-roundtable/

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