friedmators Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 sunny and gross in warren at the 287/78 intersection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun's emerging from the clouds here. Muggy too. yea we don't need that much sun...temps are already in the 80s... an hour or 2 would of intermittent should be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Got that feeling as well! NEG NAO is making even me look better with him being a debbie downer right now that alone is victory enough for me today why don't you read my posts throughly - I never said it wasn't going to storm at all I just said later then sooner based on current observations and it is already past 1 pm and some models want the storms/heavy rain in here between 3 and 5 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 why don't you read my posts throughly - I never said it wasn't going to storm at all I just said later then sooner based on current observations and it is already past 1 pm and some models want the storms/heavy rain in here between 3 and 5 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Take it easy sir it was joke i knew what you said and was having harmless fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Take it easy sir it was joke i knew what you said and was having harmless fun no problem - last night the NWS screwed up the timing of the line of storms coming across PA aand had to extend the watches and warning past 11 PM - so the greatest difficulty we are going to encounter the next 2 days is where and when the storms/flash flooding are going to occur - this is a nowcasting event for sure - models can only help us so much in this situation http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 141706Z - 141830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1 KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I give us about a 40% chance of getting red boxed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 MT HOLLY , SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR has a line crossing between 4 and 6 ish . These tend to develop very rapidly and will run 78 and 80 due East . I think we are still in that window , for selfish reasons I am rooting for darkness , When you have potential like this I root for a nitetime light show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I think our best chance of stronger storms comes after 4pm. That's when NAM and GFS crank up the LLJ. Which enhances shear and instability in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 MT HOLLY , SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SWING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL NOT BE AFFECTING OUR AREA TODAY, BUT INSTEAD, THE PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST SEABOARD AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AIDED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO, WE WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER INCREASES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE START IT AT 12 NOON SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR has a line crossing between 4 and 6 ish . These tend to develop very rapidly and will run 78 and 80 due East . I think we are still in that window , for selfish reasons I am rooting for darkness , When you have potential like this I root for a nitetime light show . These are the types of events that usually make it look like midnight at 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 These are the types of events that usually make it look like midnight at 5PM. ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. Could get a few nice wall cloud pics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 These are the types of events that usually make it look like midnight at 5PM. Just like that, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH issued for westchester county and assuming many more as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 A cell just popped near Lancaster and seems to be blowing up fairly rapidly. This is the area that the HRRR has been focusing on for the activity that comes through around 4-5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSNJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-150000-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTONCAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLANDEASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTERHUDSON HUNTERDON MERCERMIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRISOCEAN PASSAIC SALEMSOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN$$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSNYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-150000-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/NY. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBRONX KINGS NASSAUNEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAMQUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLANDWESTCHESTER$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. Could get a few nice wall cloud pics . If the NAM/HRRR are right with that line everyone including myself should expect some wind damage and maybe hail. BIG thing that is helping areas along the coast thus far is the lack of seabreeze influence which no matter how severe storms get WILL kill them so that is very good for areas that me and you live. Instability should drop noticably over the next couple hours as well. Im even excited for this today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-150000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND EASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-150000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0418.140714T1725Z-140715T0000Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER $$ Jeez again no STW for suffolk when it actually looks the best for severe weather this year yet IMO. Dont know why upton didnt opt for one just in case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 the watch also included the offshore waters - impressive - would be a good evening to be watching the lightning strikes over the ocean http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 If the NAM/HRRR are right with that line everyone including myself should expect some wind damage and maybe hail. BIG thing that is helping areas along the coast thus far is the lack of seabreeze influence which no matter how severe storms get WILL kill them so that is very good for areas that me and you live. Instability should drop noticably over the next couple hours as well. Im even excited for this today! If you haven't noticed already Suffolk County was left out of the watch Anyway the 15z HRRR backed off a little bit with the first line. Waiting to see what 16z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 precious metals are falling off a cliff today so i need a nice boomer to cheer me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I feel like this is at least our 7th or 8th watch this season already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 precious metals are falling off a cliff today so i need a nice boomer to cheer me up I`m long 10k SLV Aug 21- 22 call spread , B em at .18 . .09 - .11 and your`e upset lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I feel like this is at least our 7th or 8th watch this season already only about 2 delivered the goods here in Middlesex County NJ - the others ended up being your garden variety type storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Increased totals once again, if anyone hadn't noticed the flash flood watch has been extended to 6AM Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun is out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I think the most likely threat will be heavy rainfall as PW are through the roof. Soundings don't really indicate a strong hail signature as wet-bulb zero and freezing levels are rather high combined with low CAPE in the optimal hail growth zone. As for strong winds D Cape and low level lapse rates are rather weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I`m long 10k SLV Aug 21- 22 call spread , B em at .18 . .09 - .11 and your`e upset lol With grains getting destroyed I had a feeling it was going to carry over since many funds deal with both. I posted about it last night. PB you should join us in the market topic. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/6-political-roundtable/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The Euro is actually faster now than the GFS for Wednesday clearing most of us out before noon. Before that it's deluge city with a broad brush 2.5-3.5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 With grains getting destroyed I had a feeling it was going to carry over since many funds deal with both. I posted about it last night. PB you should join us in the market topic. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/6-political-roundtable/ is this guy your advisor ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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