blackngoldrules Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yeah, roads are wet. I've seen dustings in different parts of the area on the grass and some vehicles but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 North hills had a little coating. Nothing serious. My house in the hilltops had a really nice coating. Again just a coating nothing note worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just a light dusting. Nice to see White Gold in the air, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Wife came home down 22 from Mountain top to Murrysville and said it was slick. It's wet and temps are dropping. Roads will be Icy for A.M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 So gfs para has a big hit, regular gfs has nothing. Fwiw. Again models are all over the place each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-northern-arkansas-to-new-england/90462062001 Bernie's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 IF, and I say IF, this would work out the way Bernie is talking, we may end up with a snowfall heavier than we saw with any one storm all last winter, and we are still just in November. I don't want to get my hopes up considering all of the disappointments we have here. We'll just see how it plays out. Looks good right now, but we all know how quickly things can change, even when you get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 IF, and I say IF, this would work out the way Bernie is talking, we may end up with a snowfall heavier than we saw with any one storm all last winter, and we are still just in November. I don't want to get my hopes up considering all of the disappointments we have here. We'll just see how it plays out. Looks good right now, but we all know how quickly things can change, even when you get close. Trying not to get too excited as well. 12Z GFS really looks good. Storm is getting juicier. Let's hope we can stay cold enough for mostly snow. The track looks good so far but we all know how we need a perfect track to get into the heavier snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The cold not going to be problem. To much cold can push it south and east ..... It's never easy for us here.We always seem to have to thread the needle .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Nam has us for 3 and GFS for 5. I would take that in a minute. CCEM still has us in bullseye too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 My gut tells me it'll be a sloppy mess down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The cold not going to be problem. To much cold can push it south and east ..... It's never easy for us here.We always seem to have to thread the needle .. Cold is always a problem here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 307 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023- 029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-152015- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO- FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- 307 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM LATE WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MONDAY MORNING...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Idk about the 5+ further NW but not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I could live with the 18z runs from both the GFS and GFS-P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Idk about the 5+ further NW but not bad That map makes zero sense. There isn't enough qpf to support that 5+ northwest. Should be 1-3 up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Keeping it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 My last post of the night before I head out. I was watching kdka and Jeff V made no mention of the storm. He said possible snow showers with an accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Based on 12z Euro, some musings... - W Pa should be under right entrance region of 200 hPa jet streak early Monday. This should help with synoptic lift. - strong 500 hPa trough moving in, should also help with lift. - sfc and lower-mid level lows well to the NW could cause p-type issues. Right now PIT looks to thread the needle probably due to 850 hPa winds nearly going parallel to isotherms, resulting in little warm air advection for middle-latter part of the event. - ensembles still show much uncertainty with placement of the 850 hPa 0C line at 12z Mon So, at this point, would not rule anything out. Higher totals could occur to the north due to better temperature profiles, plus axis of higher QPF still subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA906 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.A DRY AND COLD SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATESATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...630PM UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS DRY AIR ISCAUSING THE CLOUDS TO DECAY. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS NORTHWARD AS LAKESNOW IS CONFINED TO NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. TEMPS HAVE BEENADJUSTED COLDER WITH THE CLEARING SKIES.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TOTAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDSIN BRIEFLY AND PUSHES DOWN INVERSION HEIGHTS TO INHIBIT FURTHERLAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEMINIMAL. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO 15 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAYMORNING AND BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OVERNIGHT SUNDAYAND MONDAY MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDEOF THE LONGWAVE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG JETSTREAK DEVELOPS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS....WITH SOME MODELSSHOWING MAGNITUDES UP TO AROUND 170KTS. ALTHOUGH THE TIMEFRAMETHAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELYBRIEF...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS IN PLAY TO BRING UP TOTHREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAYTHROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR MONDAYMORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE FAIRLYHIGH BETWEEN 14 TO 17KFT AT THIS TIME...THE COLUMN SHOULD BESATURATED TO THESE LEVELS AND MONDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE AREA WILLBE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JETSTREAK. ADDITIONALLY LOWER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO ALIGN WELL WITH THEUPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH PRESSURE ADVECTION AT PV15 AND 700MBFRONTOGENESIS OVERLAYING NICELY FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL LATEMONDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN3-5 INCHES IN GENERAL AT THIS TIME...WITH QPF AND SNOW RATIOVALUES TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF EC...GFS..AND HPC GUIDANCE. OVERALLMODELS HAVE SHOWN ABOVE AVERAGE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE ANDLATEST RUNS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR VALUES OVER OUR AREA WITH THEEXCEPTION OF THE SREF. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON ASHIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Got up for work checked the Euro and it showed 6-9 streaking through cincy and columbus. We get fringed with 1-3 in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Got up for work checked the Euro and it showed 6-9 streaking through cincy and columbus. We get fringed with 1-3 in that scenario That scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 That scares me.Wouldn't be the first time that has happened to us here. We either get fringed or get slop most of the time from these storms. Rarely works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Wouldn't be the first time that has happened to us here. We either get fringed or get slop most of the time from these storms. Rarely works out for us. Well, I was already told on here cold wouldn't be an issue...not sure how anyone around here ever says that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 I have a feeling cold will be an issue and cut down accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Euro was warm last night, nam is wet. PhDs is a big hit just nw..but it looks like kpit might get an inch. Gfs also is razor close. I think we know where this is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Well, I was already told on here cold wouldn't be an issue...not sure how anyone around here ever says that.We either get fringed or have temp issues in the middle of February with most of these storms. It's going to be even tougher to get one to work out for us in the middle of November. We should all be used to this by now. We keep tracking them in hopes of another 2010, or something close to that one, happening at some point. Just have to deal with the loads of disappointments along the way. It's part of living in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yep. The trend continues. Always in the bullseye 3 or 4 days out only to move on us. Looks like Eastern Ohio will be the place to be. I see more mix and rain changing to snow on Monday. We could use an eastern trend now but likely to not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Wobble. Wobble wobble. Models will keep doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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