blackngoldrules Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just checked the text output from the 06z NAM, its at 19inches by 84 hours, and even had a period of sleet in between but its still snowing at 84. 6z GFS meanwhile had 13 inches on the text for KPIT. DST sucks for model watching, still another hour until the 12z NAM rolls out. At least right now the models are moving towards a solution that seems to give us some good snow vs the last storm we started seeing things fall apart around this time, so fingers crossed we don't see that again. Yeah, the NAM is really amped up. We know that typically over the years, the NAM tends to overestimate the QPF, especially with storms still 2 or 3 days away. Another thing that is concerning is the dreaded warm tongue if this thing gets too amped up. We also know that the models tend to underestimate that. Hopefully, the high to our north will be strong enough to keep that south this time. With the track of the low to our southwest, the warm tongue can be an issue. The storm 2 weeks ago fell apart for us on the Friday right before the storm. The 12z GFS still had us near a foot, then it fell apart from there. At least with this one, we haven't held on for days to a solution. The trend is now and hopefully it'll be our friend for a change. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah, the NAM is really amped up. We know that typically over the years, the NAM tends to overestimate the QPF, especially with storms still 2 or 3 days away. Another thing that is concerning is the dreaded warm tongue if this thing gets too amped up. We also know that the models tend to underestimate that. Hopefully, the high to our north will be strong enough to keep that south this time. With the track of the low to our southwest, the warm tongue can be an issue. The storm 2 weeks ago fell apart for us on the Friday right before the storm. The 12z GFS still had us near a foot, then it fell apart from there. At least with this one, we haven't held on for days to a solution. The trend is now and hopefully it'll be our friend for a change. Sent from my XT897 I fully expect a Charlie Brown moment with this storm. Not getting sucked in. Still 60 hours away and way too much can go wrong between now and then. It will be noon Sunday before I get excited about any solution that shows us with 6+ inches of snow. Not sure when the storm will be fully sampled. I know the sw energy has been sampled for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I fully expect a Charlie Brown moment with this storm. Not getting sucked in. Still 60 hours away and way too much can go wrong between now and then. It will be noon Sunday before I get excited about any solution that shows us with 6+ inches of snow. Not sure when the storm will be fully sampled. I know the sw energy has been sampled for a day or so. I'm the same way right now. I'll just keep checking out the models and discussing the possibilities knowing full well that this can be just another disappointment. We'll see if Lucy pulls the football away from us yet again. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Were no 60 hrs away we are 48-50 hrs noaa saying early Sunday afternoon start ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This storm is different than last time. This is actually going to phase and pv is not as strong and there suggesting this May stall out and dump snow where ever it ends up. So I'm thinking we have a good chance at some plow able snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Were no 60 hrs away we are 48-50 hrs noaa saying early Sunday afternoon start ??? Looking at Cobb data, starts around 7 pm 140316/1900Z 61 06010KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0140316/2000Z 62 07011KT 31.5F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0140316/2100Z 63 07014KT 31.0F SNOW 13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0140316/2200Z 64 07015KT 29.9F SNOW 15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 13:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0140316/2300Z 65 07016KT 28.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 13:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0140317/0000Z 66 07016KT 27.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 13:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/0100Z 67 07015KT 26.3F SNOW 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 13:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0140317/0200Z 68 07016KT 25.4F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 12:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0140317/0300Z 69 07017KT 24.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 12:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0140317/0400Z 70 07017KT 23.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0140317/0500Z 71 07016KT 22.4F SNPL 9:1| 0.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.080 11:1| 11.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.99 74| 26| 0140317/0600Z 72 07016KT 21.8F SNPL 3:1| 0.5|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.134 11:1| 11.8|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 1.13 41| 59| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/0700Z 73 07014KT 21.1F SNPL 6:1| 0.5|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.088 10:1| 12.4|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.21 74| 26| 0140317/0800Z 74 06015KT 20.7F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.070 10:1| 12.4|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 1.28 0|100| 0140317/0900Z 75 07015KT 20.6F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.012 10:1| 12.4|| 0.41|| 0.00|| 1.30 0|100| 0140317/1000Z 76 07016KT 20.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.006 10:1| 12.4|| 0.42|| 0.00|| 1.30 0|100| 0140317/1100Z 77 07015KT 20.2F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 12.4|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.31 0|100| 0140317/1200Z 78 07014KT 19.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 10:1| 12.9|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.35 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140317/1300Z 79 06014KT 19.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 13.8|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.41 100| 0| 0140317/1400Z 80 06013KT 19.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 11:1| 14.7|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0140317/1500Z 81 06013KT 20.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 11:1| 15.5|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.53 100| 0| 0140317/1600Z 82 05013KT 21.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 11:1| 15.9|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.57 100| 0| 0140317/1700Z 83 05012KT 22.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 11:1| 16.2|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.59 100| 0| 0140317/1800Z 84 05011KT 23.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 11:1| 16.7|| 0.43|| 0.00|| 1.63 100| 0| 0============================================================================================================================ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 WOW Reduced 38% 1024 x 768 (122.86K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I sense a Southern trend that puts us on the fringe again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reduced 38% 1024 x 768 (125.39K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Reduced 38% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wait a minute I looked at the snowmap and I see a slight south shift that takes us out of the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 We are looking good but a sharp cutoff near I-80. If this thing starts moving south like the last one the heavy snows will be at the WV-PA border again and we will be on that dreaded northern edge. I hope I am wrong. Every other storm locks in at this time but when we are in the game it moves either North or South. Still pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wait a minute I looked at the snowmap and I see a slight south shift that takes us out of the heaviest snow. Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 38% 1024 x 768 (159.11K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 We are looking good but a sharp cutoff near I-80. If this thing starts moving south like the last one the heavy snows will be at the WV-PA border again and we will be on that dreaded northern edge. I hope I am wrong. Every other storm locks in at this time but when we are in the game it moves either North or South. Still pessimistic. This is not like the last storm according the Bernie R. He said the PV should be lifting out and the worry is the strength of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Hopefully this doesn't end up being déjà vu. Seems like the low isn't as strong on this run which allows the cold air to push it a little more south. Still a nice hit but the trend moving it back south is concerning. Two weeks ago, it trended south for the 12z run, but still gave us a nice hit. The 18z did us in after that. This would truly be amazing if this ends up missing us or fringing us. The storm this past week never budged and stayed north of us. The one before that was a perfect hit for us and trended south the last 2 days. This area seems to repel snowstorms like no other. We'll see what the GFS shows. Sent from my XT897 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah exactly no one panic over one NAM run. Just yesterday some people were calling for a storm cancel but then the 00z shifted things North. With that notion I am still very pessimistic given the seasonal trend of bending us over a barrel and having its way with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Wow that snow map looks familiar I really hope we don't see this play out like the last storm.. NAM at 12z was a bit weaker and less organized, held more energy back so the PV was able to steer it east a bit sooner. Honestly, I'll take my chances with a fully phased beast. I'd rather go to rain than watch another M/D line and south bulls eye with cirrus clouds and a few flurries here. This run is more in line with the other global models though, should be interesting to see what happens with the energy that gets left behind. I think it likely rolls OTS, so the more that ejects with the first wave the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 My wife is flying in at 10:30 pm Sun night from Minneapolis. I need to know if she should try to get an earlier flight. It is very expensive to switch flights thru Delta and as we know these systems change. Hope we have some consistency from the models so I can get a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (35.86K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Attached thumbnail(s) Reduced 20% 800 x 600 (35.86K) IT'S GROUNDHOG DAY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS is lousy... pretty far south. Trough is positive and doesn't close off. You can see at 54 hours the NAM has the energy consolidating in Oklahoma while the GFS is in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yeah exactly no one panic over one NAM run. Just yesterday some people were calling for a storm cancel but then the 00z shifted things North. With that notion I am still very pessimistic given the seasonal trend of bending us over a barrel and having its way with us.The 12z GFS puts us over that barrel once again. Yeah, it's dejavu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 12z GFS puts over that barrel once again. Yeah, it's dejavu. I was starting to get sucked back in. Thank you GFS for getting me back to reality.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 12z GFS puts over that barrel once again. Yeah, it's dejavu. Well if it plays out like that, at least we weren't strung along for 3-4 days before it fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well once again this thing falls apart with the 12z runs. Go ahead WV take our storm away from us for the 20th time this year. Well atleast I didn't get as invested in this one as the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From NWS Pittsburgh:SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONTTHAT PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOKPARTICULARLY STRONG...HOWEVER LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTUREUNDER UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN ANDSNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE MORNING HOURS.THE REAL WEATHER MAKER AND CLEAR SYSTEM TO WATCH WITH INTEREST FOROUR AREA IS JUST NOW COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERNCANADA COAST...REFLECTED BY FAIRLY STRONG DRYING ON WATER VAPORIMAGERY INDICATIVE OF DEEP PENETRATION OF PV INTO THE MIDDLETROPOSPHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THISSYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND QUICKLY DIGSINTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THESOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. A FEW VERY INTERESTING UPPER LEVELINTERACTIONS SEEM TO BE TAKING PLACE ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODELSOLUTIONS THAT COULD...I STRESS COULD...END UP WITH A FAIRLYSIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER MAKER TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MIDDLEATLANTIC STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.FIRST...THE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THEWEATHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ITS POSITION SEEMSLIKELY TO TREND TOWARD QUEBEC DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THEFORECAST. THIS PLACES THE MEAN POLAR JET FLOW IN A NORTHWESTERLYORIENTATION GREAT LAKES THAT TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME DUE TOTHE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LOW.SECOND...ENERGY CURRENTLY COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTTHAT EMERGES IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THEEASTWARD EJECTION OF THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAWTHE SUBTROPICAL JET FARTHER NORTHWARD RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOWASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THISSYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO PACK THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD WORK TO STRENGTHEN THEPOLAR JET AND REORIENT IT IN A MORE WEST TO EAST FASHION ACROSSTHE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO LEAVE USWITH A SCENARIO WHERE THE LEFT EXIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ANDRIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE POLAR JET ARE LIKELY TO COUPLE...RESULTINGIN CYCLOGENESIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OFTHE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ORMIDDLE ATLANTIC.THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY FAVORS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MIDMISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM LIKELY TOSLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSUREGRADIENT AROUND THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL FAVORING RAPIDLYINCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WHICH SEEMS LIKELYTO MANIFEST ITSELF IN RAPIDLY DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURESGOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS LIFT ARRIVES IN THE REGION...THISSHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO TREND QUICKLY TOWARD THE WINTRYVARIETY AS A RESULT AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...STRONGTILT WITH HEIGHT DUE TO THE STRONGLY BAROCLINIC NATURE OF THISSYSTEM MEANS THE 850 MB LOW WILL BE FAVORED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAROUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WARM ADVECTION MAYRESULT JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLYMELT HYDROMETEORS...AND DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION BELOW THEMELTING LAYER...IT DOES SEEM A PREFERENCE FOR SLEET WOULD BEEVIDENT OVER FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME. HOW FAR NORTHWARD THISPOTENTIAL WARM TONGUE MAY EDGE UP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THISTIME...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLY TO AT LEAST GET INTO THEMORGANTOWN AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE MOMENT...IF NOTFARTHER NORTHWARD.ANOTHER RAMIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW OVER THESOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY BE ITS EFFECTS UPON THE LOW AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION FIELDS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENTEXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THESE FIELDS IN FAVORING DEEPLIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY ALONGAND NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW DUE TO IMPRESSIVELYDEEP DEFORMATION ON BOTH MODELS. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVORRAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM EASTERNOHIO THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIANAND ECMWF FAVOR THIS BAND BEING A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEASTOWING TO A BIT MORE SUBDUED TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW. AT THEMOMENT...THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN WARM AIR ALOFT...WARMGROUND AT ONSET...AND PROBLEMS WITH THE PARTICULAR TRACK HAVENECESSITATED A RATHER CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THEFORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HEADLINES WITHTHIS SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...SO A MENTIONOF THE SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN MADE.FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 My final call map. I will check the 00z runs but if theres no help I am done. I will be too drunk tomorrow to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From NWS Pittsburgh: SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...HOWEVER LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE REAL WEATHER MAKER AND CLEAR SYSTEM TO WATCH WITH INTEREST FOR OUR AREA IS JUST NOW COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA COAST...REFLECTED BY FAIRLY STRONG DRYING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF DEEP PENETRATION OF PV INTO THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EMERGES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND QUICKLY DIGS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. A FEW VERY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL INTERACTIONS SEEM TO BE TAKING PLACE ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT COULD...I STRESS COULD...END UP WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER MAKER TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. FIRST...THE HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ITS POSITION SEEMS LIKELY TO TREND TOWARD QUEBEC DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS PLACES THE MEAN POLAR JET FLOW IN A NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION GREAT LAKES THAT TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME DUE TO THE SLOW MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LOW. SECOND...ENERGY CURRENTLY COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT EMERGES IN THE FRONT RANGE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW THE SUBTROPICAL JET FARTHER NORTHWARD RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO PACK THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD WORK TO STRENGTHEN THE POLAR JET AND REORIENT IT IN A MORE WEST TO EAST FASHION ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO LEAVE US WITH A SCENARIO WHERE THE LEFT EXIT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE POLAR JET ARE LIKELY TO COUPLE...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY OR MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY FAVORS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM LIKELY TO SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL FAVORING RAPIDLY INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO MANIFEST ITSELF IN RAPIDLY DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS LIFT ARRIVES IN THE REGION...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO TREND QUICKLY TOWARD THE WINTRY VARIETY AS A RESULT AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG TILT WITH HEIGHT DUE TO THE STRONGLY BAROCLINIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THE 850 MB LOW WILL BE FAVORED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELT HYDROMETEORS...AND DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION BELOW THE MELTING LAYER...IT DOES SEEM A PREFERENCE FOR SLEET WOULD BE EVIDENT OVER FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME. HOW FAR NORTHWARD THIS POTENTIAL WARM TONGUE MAY EDGE UP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLY TO AT LEAST GET INTO THE MORGANTOWN AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE MOMENT...IF NOT FARTHER NORTHWARD. ANOTHER RAMIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY BE ITS EFFECTS UPON THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION FIELDS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THESE FIELDS IN FAVORING DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW DUE TO IMPRESSIVELY DEEP DEFORMATION ON BOTH MODELS. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FAVOR THIS BAND BEING A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OWING TO A BIT MORE SUBDUED TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW. AT THE MOMENT...THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN WARM AIR ALOFT...WARM GROUND AT ONSET...AND PROBLEMS WITH THE PARTICULAR TRACK HAVE NECESSITATED A RATHER CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...SO A MENTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN MADE. FRIES FWIW- This discussion was before the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From NWS Pittsburgh: That discussion is old, probably written before 12z runs started rolling in. Not that the NWS swings from run to run but I wouldn't be surprised to see that toned down given latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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