Wx4cast Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Been a while since I have posted here. Thought I'd start a new thread on the end of the week snow threat for the Northeast. I will post more model data and discussions later this afternoon when I get back from completing my chores.I have posted the 11 Feb 12z UK charts and NAM (QPF charts only. On Nam that is forecast 12 hour qpf output starting at 36 hours to 72 hours)Models seemingly coming into better agreement on Thursday's event. Looks like two SHARP cut-offs over ENY and WNE between NO Snow and Snow. Within the snow accumulation area a sharp gradient between heavy accumulation and lesser. Here is the TUES 12z UKM. Pressure, wind and QPF clockwise from left to right (42Hr, 48Hr, 60Hr and 72Hr). Think that CCB/Def zone from this system will be the main player of this storm for the region and responsible for the bulk of the snowfall that does fall across ENY. Ahhhh but exactly where will it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good to have you back Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least the UK and Euro like ENY. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on this one! Been a while since I have posted here. Thought I'd start a new thread on the end of the week snow threat for the Northeast. I will post more model data and discussions later this afternoon when I get back from completing my chores. I have posted the 11 Feb 12z UK charts and NAM (QPF charts only. On Nam that is forecast 12 hour qpf output starting at 36 hours to 72 hours)Models seemingly coming into better agreement on Thursday's event. Looks like two SHARP cut-offs over ENY and WNE between NO Snow and Snow. Within the snow accumulation area a sharp gradient between heavy accumulation and lesser. Here is the TUES 12z UKM. Pressure, wind and QPF clockwise from left to right (42Hr, 48Hr, 60Hr and 72Hr). Think that CCB/Def zone from this system will be the main player of this storm for the region and responsible for the bulk of the snowfall that does fall across ENY. Ahhhh but exactly where will it set up? Snap 2014-02-11 at 13.06.04.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At least the UK and Euro like ENY. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on this one! Is the 12Z Euro still kind for eastern NY? Euro has been incredibly steady thus far for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes, The CCB gets us pretty good still in the 12Z Is the 12Z Euro still kind for eastern NY? Euro has been incredibly steady thus far for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NYZ039>043-047>053-082>084-121000- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0004.140213T1500Z-140214T1500Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS... HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH 302 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL MIDDAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to their map, 6-8" is going to fall, with a little more S and E of ALB. Fairly pedestrian moderate event if it turns out that way but its better than nothing! NYZ039>043-047>053-082>084-121000- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0004.140213T1500Z-140214T1500Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS... HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH 302 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL MIDDAY THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to their map, 6-8" is going to fall, with a little more S and E of ALB. Fairly pedestrian moderate event if it turns out that way but its better than nothing! Indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good to have you back Andy! Nice to be back... At least the UK and Euro like ENY. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on this one! Still think to early to call with specific amounts. Just looked at latest EC and its CCB is aligning in between UK and NAM more SSW to NNE oriented. I estimate QPF for Albany around 2/3rds of an inch perhaps near 3/4. More to the SSE and less to the NW ('Dacks). Cut off low h500 and below favorable for heavy snow for the area especially central and southern Catskills to CD up through eastern Mohawk Valley to about Saratoga Springs thence east across SVT to northern most Berkshire County. Its low track favor either mix with or change to sleet for a while on Thursday afternoon across Southern Berkshires lower Hudson Valley maybe as far north as Hudson. Is the 12Z Euro still kind for eastern NY? Euro has been incredibly steady thus far for many days. Still is decent for us. I quickly looked at its qpf it looks to be bdown a bit from prior runs but not don a lot. Yes, The CCB gets us pretty good still in the 12Z I agree...UK seems to have the best CCB of the 4 models I looked at (EC UK GFS and NAM). In order of intenisty the UK has the strongest (and its been very consistent too in step with the EC) followed by the EC then the NAM. GFS' is good too but farther east, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ugh..18z mods much farther west...see what 00z data has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ugh..18z mods much farther west...see what 00z data has... The Euro hasn't been as reliable with these storms as in prior years (apparently some software changes were made?) but it looks like the 18z GFS just took another step toward caving to the Euro... which in this particular case has been stubbornly consistent. The 00z runs will be interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Euro hasn't been as reliable with these storms as in prior years (apparently some software changes were made?) but it looks like the 18z GFS just took another step toward caving to the Euro... which in this particular case has been stubbornly consistent. The 00z runs will be interesting indeed. True but it is only one run that shows this if it keeps up then will way more snow. Also too something to keep in mind EC QPF forecasts tend to be less skillful inside of 60-72 hours. If the GFS trends up on QP then more snow gonna' happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bab5871 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where is all the discussion happening for this for ENY/Upstate NY? I see the NE thread, and the central PA thread blowing up, but noone talking about ENY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I responded in the NE thread, but it can get lost rather quickly. This is the "Upstate" thread, but when the administrators created it, they labeled it as "Covering most of PA and Western NY". This sort of excludes those of us in Eastern Upstate, so we're left without a home. That said, either here or New England is fine to discuss the storm. We can discuss it in the general Upstate thread...just don't expect all the Lake Effect guys around Buffalo to care much We are right on the line here...I do think the heaviest snow will fall south and east of us, from SE NY - NW Mass - SW NH...this despite a track very favorable for us. Also, whenever a megaband seems to set up over Western Mass/Extreme Eastern NY, we tend to get skunked on this side. Where is all the discussion happening for this for ENY/Upstate NY? I see the NE thread, and the central PA thread blowing up, but noone talking about ENY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out the 12Z GFS. Mix line will approach ALB. Looks about similar to what Euro has been showing for days...slp to track over SNE or the Cape. 700/850 lows take a good track to generate heavy snow for ENY. qpf field is for sh*t, as usual. If GFS is right I'd expect coastal areas to soar into the 40s with rain after a few inches up front. Central/No. NE over to ENY should do well in the CCB deformation zone. Not sure how far west it throws back precip but if the 12Z structure is accurate, would have to think BGM to UCA get warning level snowfall. 12Z Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out the 12Z GFS. Mix line will approach ALB. Looks about similar to what Euro has been showing for days...slp to track over SNE or the Cape. 700/850 lows take a good track to generate heavy snow for ENY. qpf field is for sh*t, as usual. If GFS is right I'd expect coastal areas to soar into the 40s with rain after a few inches up front. Central/No. NE over to ENY should do well in the CCB deformation zone. Not sure how far west it throws back precip but if the 12Z structure is accurate, would have to think BGM to UCA get warning level snowfall. 12Z Euro will be interesting. Mix line will definitely be an issue, probably just S and E of ALB unless this goes slightly further west. as the CCB comes through temps crash though.. just depends on where the axis of the dilatation sets up in the deformation zone as this things bombs out. I wonder if there are some convective issues robbing precip from the back side of cyclone because it's much more bare than I'd expect.. especially in the NAM depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Writing from Albany. Great thread! I'm still a little anxious about missing the good stuff to the east... I guess recent years have instilled this persistent fear in my mind. The GFS around hr 30 at 18z was actually quite a bit east of 12z with its SLP track. It kind of takes a wide offshore track from east of the delmarva before hooking back a little bit into the Cape. The best backside lift pulls in towards the low as it rapidly deepens... brushing ENY and hitting New England. This kind of shift is within a reasonable spread of likely outcomes. But I would much rather see the SLP tuck in close to NJ then well offshore. The initial overunning might be a lot lighter for this area than for areas south and east. So we might need a close track to get QPF totals up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That good stuff is most of our storm those of us north of Albany. Your fears are well justified considering Albanys luck in recent years, haha. I do still have some hope we get a decent storm out of this however. Hope the 00z's stop the east trend. Writing from Albany. Great thread! I'm still a little anxious about missing the good stuff to the east... I guess recent years have instilled this persistent fear in my mind. The GFS around hr 30 at 18z was actually quite a bit east of 12z with its SLP track. It kind of takes a wide offshore track from east of the delmarva before hooking back a little bit into the Cape. The best backside lift pulls in towards the low as it rapidly deepens... brushing ENY and hitting New England. This kind of shift is within a reasonable spread of likely outcomes. But I would much rather see the SLP tuck in close to NJ then well offshore. The initial overunning might be a lot lighter for this area than for areas south and east. So we might need a close track to get QPF totals up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We'll see what 00Z runs show but a coastal hugging track off ORF that magicallly moves outside CC w/ an ULL going neg tilt makes little sense. Unless the phasing is later or weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Based on radar returns in the south, it looks like the 18z GFS is going to end up too light with QPF along the western periphery of the storm over the next 12 hours or so in EKY, WV, and WVA. The NAM and RGEM are wetter for these areas, which looks more reasonable. Storms often reveal characteristics about themselves early. I like watching the radar/satellite for these early signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 0z NAM basically misses BGM and most of the southern tier. Warnings are posted for that area. I hope it's too far east. The low center kind of does a small loop as the upper level low catches up. Banding will be difficult to pin down ahead of time. One positive of the NAM run was more robust wraparound QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM is way too restrictive w/ western edge of snow. The qpf field doesn't even match the 700mb depiction very well. Not sure why, or if its convective feedback issue of some sort. Not sure if NAM is trying to show some sort of half assed cyclonic loop w/ the SLP or it just loses the SLP center briefly. Loops are not unheard of as a storm phases in the upper atmosphere and captures the low. Sometimes we think of this as stalling. What's odd is that IF the SLP gets captured, its unlikely it does a stage right NE or ENE exit. Maybe it will but typically that doesn't happen, if the storm strongly phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 @RyanMaue just posted this 00Z GFS qpf chart. Stupefying. Long Island is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think the GFS is plausible. The frontside overrunning will be sliding east. And by the time the wraparound develops at our latitude, it might be pulling in tight towards the low center. CT wins again? I hope not. On the other hand, guidance - the GFS in particular - has been increasing QPF in western VA and WV. Maybe that will eventually translate northeast in subsequent runs. The GFS still has yet to really target ENY in any cycle... with last nights run being the best. QPF has gradually decreased since then, despite a decent forecast track. KPOU with .4 or .5" QPF would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just about the entire state of VT gets more QPF than ALB on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think the GFS is plausible. The frontside overrunning will be sliding east. And by the time the wraparound develops at our latitude, it might be pulling in tight towards the low center. CT wins again? I hope not. On the other hand, guidance - the GFS in particular - has been increasing QPF in western VA and WV. Maybe that will eventually translate northeast in subsequent runs. The GFS still has yet to really target ENY in any cycle... with last nights run being the best. QPF has gradually decreased since then, despite a decent forecast track. KPOU with .4 or .5" QPF would surprise me. Yeah, that's possible. This will be an interesting one. CT to BOS blowtorches in any scenario. That wraparound is always problematic. Litchfield cty and NW may stay all frozen and get some CCB / wraparound. Most of the rest of the state is 2-6" then rain and/or dryslot. An inch or two on the backend, which will be fighting mid level temps > 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CMC is dry - 1" total liquid is limited to south of Albany and east of I-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z NAM gives close to 2" liquid equivalent around Albany now, with the pivoting band absolutely pummeling eastern NY into northern VT. 12z RGEM looks even further west than the NAM. should be a fun 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Downtown ALB: Light snow with vis ~ 1mi. 22.1F. 1" snow on the ground. The snow has been pretty consistent since around dawn. It might have picked up slightly just now as I look out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Definitely has picked up this morning. I been following all morning. Some heavier stuff approaching Albany on radar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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