Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event

[Mr Torchey]

Don't know..I don't look at or use the GFS for anything

Are you going with the nam? Thats even worse. Euro did give you an inch, but it also took it away at 12 z yesterday, wonder if it still has it today?

[cpickett79]

Are you going with the nam? Thats even worse. Euro did give you an inch, but it also took it away at 12 z yesterday, wonder if it still has it today?

[CoastalWx]

The gfs has that vortmax rotating west, but it's farther east. I think that's the difference.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Yeah Scott, they probably won't go with the WSW, given that the 12z GFS is less robust. How much weight is given to the short range HIRES models ARW and NMM for a forecast?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Scott, they probably won't go with the WSW, given that the 12z GFS is less robust. How much weight is given to the short range HIRES models ARW and NMM for a forecast?

I usually don't look at them all that much, but they are guidance...like everything else. I don't envision an advisory either, but if the western edge of the storm skirts the Cape, I wouldn't be shocked if they do issue one. It's pretty toasty down there, so boundary layer will be a problem.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

12z Canadian at hour 12 is more robust with the western extent of the QPF.

[weathafella]

This being a weenie thread and all....

[cpickett79]

12z Canadian at hour 12 is more robust with the western extent of the QPF.

some one please shoot me

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I usually don't look at them all that much, but they are guidance...like everything else. I don't envision an advisory either, but if the western edge of the storm skirts the Cape, I wouldn't be shocked if they do issue one. It's pretty toasty down there, so boundary layer will be a problem.

Taunton is convinced or mostly convinced that the boundary layer cools and OES becomes more pronouned Monday and then lightens some Tuesday before the retrograding trough seeds more OES bands for the region. They mention that delta ts increase to 15-20C on Monday and then again Wednesday. Tuesday the bands look to move offshore as winds veer to the northwest for a time, before coming back north and the northeast as the trough heads into the region.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

some one please shoot me

I can't be aware for my region (Cape Cod, MA) given we are the closest to the storm center? I don't get it sometimes.

[weathafella]

btw....the model dumps about 1.5 for BOS in the snow form from midnight xmas night though Noon 12/26.

[CoastalWx]

Taunton is convinced or mostly convinced that the boundary layer cools and OES becomes more pronouned Monday and then lightens some Tuesday before the retrograding trough seeds more OES bands for the region. They mention that delta ts increase to 15-20C on Monday and then again Wednesday. Tuesday the bands look to move offshore as winds veer to the northwest for a time, before coming back north and the northeast as the trough heads into the region.

Yeah it will cool eventually, I'm talking more near term. You definitely want winds to be more northerly or else the boundary layer may be warm.

[cpickett79]

CCPSUsuperstorm

you mis understood me

i just can't believe I AM getting a little excited over a 12 hour run of the 12z canadian

i would have weenies ready to chuck or a chair ready to dangle from if i were in your spot.

[ROOSTA]

Plain and simple:

Reshuffle- Manitoba Mauler! FTW

Until then forget it. The southern streamer, fast flow longitudinal vorts just won't cut it. Over modeled and analyzed.

Give me the Mauler with a pseudo SE ridge!

[cpickett79]

nantucket about to get backhanded by old man winter

or bent over by the cosmis dildo

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=okx&product=N0Z&loop=yes

i'll go with ole man winter

[Arnold214]

no offense, but I feel pretty safe going against you, given our track record thus far

I actually came up with an equation to derive a realistic snowfall forecast from kevin's predictions. Its pretty simple...just multiply by 0.40 and that's what wl probably happen.

[cpickett79]

I actually came up with an equation to derive a realistic snowfall forecast from kevin's predictions. Its pretty simple...just multiply by 0.40 and that's what wl probably happen.

have you taken a look at the latest long range mt. holly or upton radars and curent visible loops of WV loops. and if so do you see anything that leans this way or that from the nam/gfs last couple runs? or anyone for that matter. objectively

[Arnold214]

have you taken a look at the latest long range mt. holly or upton radars and curent visible loops of WV loops. and if so do you see anything that leans this way or that from the nam/gfs last couple runs? or anyone for that matter. objectively

I haven't looked at much data this morning. Just have my iphone right now. Once i get my noose all set up i wl take a last minute look.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah it will cool eventually, I'm talking more near term. You definitely want winds to be more northerly or else the boundary layer may be warm.

Envisioning we start as a mix or some sprinkles

[CoastalWx]

Canadian dried out sw areas..down by CT, but also 12hrs faster it seems.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sky has that snow imminent weenie look to it right now lol..too bad it's still 1-2 days away..30.6/22

[CoastalWx]

Envisioning we start as a mix or some sprinkles

Yeah that's what I think.

[Mr Torchey]

Canadian dried out sw areas..down by CT, but also 12hrs faster it seems.

What is that about a half to one millimeter for northern ct?

[Damage In Tolland]

What is that about a half to one millimeter for northern ct?

Isn't this the type of azz holeish behavior that got you banned from Eastern?

[cpickett79]

I haven't looked at much data this morning. Just have my iphone right now. Once i get my noose all set up i wl take a last minute look.

thank you politely

to others with access is that an inverted trough setting up or "something" on the upton long range radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=okx&product=N0Z&loop=yes

there is a weird signature on radar that is at a different layer because as the main precip shield slides NE there is a set of echoes SSW of montauk and well east of central jersey's latitude...that appears to have a hooking signature that is slowly pushing west.

[CoastalWx]

Envisioning we start as a mix or some sprinkles

It looks like you'll cool off tonight and Monday.

[CoastalWx]

thank you politely

to others with access is that an inverted trough setting up or "something" on the upton long range radar

http://radar.weather...ct=N0Z&loop=yes

there is a weird signature on radar that is at a different layer because as the main precip shield slides NE there is a set of echoes SSW of montauk and well east of central jersey's latitude...that appears to have a hooking signature that is slowly pushing west.

That's some sort of a trough or windshift line. It might separate north winds vs. more northeast winds.

[cpickett79]

It looks like you'll cool off tonight and Monday.

scott what is that feature SSW of montauk on radar (long range upton) that is trudging westward as the main shield lifts NE

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=okx&product=N0Z&loop=yes is that a developing norlun feature

[CoastalWx]

scott what is that feature SSW of montauk on radar (long range upton) that is trudging westward as the main shield lifts NE

http://radar.weather...ct=N0Z&loop=yes is that a developing norlun feature

See above post...likely probably separating more polar air from maritime air.

[Mr Torchey]

Isn't this the type of azz holeish behavior that got you banned from Eastern?

Actually I was trying to read the accumulated precip from the map, looks like .5-1 millimeter for northern ct and nothing for me, as you already pointed out earlier this morning.