wxmeddler Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 It hit 70 by .1 degree... ugh. I know this likely happens in every city but to see it makes it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The day 3 low still isn't 45F lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 The day 3 low still isn't 45F lol Send them an email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Moved up into the 590's and shaved my standard deviation by about 1.4 with a solid but not great day 4. Next week doesn't look as tough with a modest LP ejecting into the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday before high pressure builds in to end the week...so maybe a tough forecast day in there but in general probably not as epic of bust potential as this past Wednesday especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Thought last night that it might go this low, but I figured with the wet ground and such it would have a hard time. Guess not! I had the same line of thinking. Oops. Scores all screwed up at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Max 47 Min 46. that cant be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 They will eventually correct the website. Climo had it as 70/40/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Your clock has changed but 00z hasn't! Forecasts due by 7p EASTERN 6p CENTRAL 5p MOUNTAIN 4p PACIFIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Hail Mary forecast.. It's gonna rain hard with that front near 6z. 64/56/16/1.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Went with 63/57/16/0.81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 65/58/19/0.60" At this point didn't want to get too crazy with everything and really knock myself back. I'm 2 degrees warmer than the national consensus on the high and 4 degrees warmer on the low...that's what will sink or propel me tomorrow. If it rains a lot more than I have it won't help but it won't knock me back too terribly far. Even though it will be cloudy and at times rainy all day I don't see why things can't sneak into the mid 60's, especially if the rain temporarily ends or becomes widely scattered during the afternoon. For tonight see them holding steady much of the night...although we'll see if I bust there. 57 or higher really helps me in that regard. Thought about going higher with rain but some of the models keep the heaviest rain east tomorrow morning and some models don't get the front there until after 6z so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 64/58/16/0.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 65/55/19/1.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 64/58/16/0.65 For the other competition, went with H: 63-65 L: 57-59 P: 0.45-0.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I really, really hope the 00z hi-res NAM is wrong. It could be 64F at 0545z, and then 47F by 0600z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I really, really hope the 00z hi-res NAM is wrong. It could be 64F at 0545z, and then 47F by 0600z. All of the models are really close, and even the 0z hi-res NAM only has the front a few miles past the site by 6z. The 0z GFS and 12km NAM appear to be a little slower. Could be a nail-biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 It's approaching 6z and the mesonet site is sitting at 59 (has been for a few hours) and the dew point is starting to creep up...up to 56 right now. Rain/thicker clouds are approaching from the south and the rain ought to move in by maybe 8z it's looking like. Maybe temps will drop a degree or two as the rain moves in, but right now it's looking like the warmer end of the forecast lows will verify tonight. Only fly in the ointment is the front arriving a bit earlier than expected tomorrow night and dropping temperatures just before 6z. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 65/56/17/0.62" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 All of the models are really close, and even the 0z hi-res NAM only has the front a few miles past the site by 6z. The 0z GFS and 12km NAM appear to be a little slower. Could be a nail-biter. 00z Hi-Res had the front through by 06z. 06z Hi-Res not quite. The 12z Hi-Res has it just through again. Ugh. Euro is like a few miles west. GFS and Op. NAM are further west, but they're also worse models. SREFs only have a few members through by 06z, but SREFs are awful. All things considered, I expect the front to be RIGHT on their doorstep at 06z. It will mean the difference between a low of 58F and a low of 48F. That drop will probably occur over about 20 minutes, so if you're in between those lows, you probably have a single 5-minute obs window for your low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Based on current observations out of western Kansas, I think the front is just a tiny bit ahead of schedule. Right now my only hope is that, since it's going to be much cloudier and cooler in Oklahoma than the Hi-Res is modeling, that that somehow makes the front progress slightly slower than the Hi-Res would suggest. Which is to say, maybe the weaker frontogenesis means the front takes an extra hour or two to really pull together, or maybe the lack of surface heating prevents such a strong line of storms from developing along the front, which then prevents the front from getting that extra "kick" of wind from aloft to push it ahead faster. If the front moves with an average speed of ~23mph from here on out, we're probably safe. If it moves with an average speed of ~28mph, it's probably through before 06z. EDIT: Probably hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Based on current observations out of western Kansas, I think the front is just a tiny bit ahead of schedule. Right now my only hope is that, since it's going to be much cloudier and cooler in Oklahoma than the Hi-Res is modeling, that that somehow makes the front progress slightly slower than the Hi-Res would suggest. Which is to say, maybe the weaker frontogenesis means the front takes an extra hour or two to really pull together, or maybe the lack of surface heating prevents such a strong line of storms from developing along the front, which then prevents the front from getting that extra "kick" of wind from aloft to push it ahead faster. If the front moves with an average speed of ~23mph from here on out, we're probably safe. If it moves with an average speed of ~28mph, it's probably through before 06z. EDIT: Probably hosed. The 18z hi-res NAM looks a tad faster than 12z. It's probably going to warm another degree or two which will put me above the national consensus despite what precip or winds do later. But this dumb front may come through just in time to screw up both of our warm lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The 18z hi-res NAM looks a tad faster than 12z. It's probably going to warm another degree or two which will put me above the national consensus despite what precip or winds do later. But this dumb front may come through just in time to screw up both of our warm lows. The low is the difference between me being at -1 and a couple points ahead of Nat. Consensus, or me being at +3 and eight points behind. Just like with Newark and Astoria last year, once I fall behind I can't catch a break. My forecast today wasn't bad, but people who went with lows like 53-56 are going to score much better than me, even though that's a terrible low forecast. The actual low is going to be in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The low is the difference between me being at -1 and a couple points ahead of Nat. Consensus, or me being at +3 and eight points behind. Just like with Newark and Astoria last year, once I fall behind I can't catch a break. My forecast today wasn't bad, but people who went with lows like 53-56 are going to score much better than me, even though that's a terrible low forecast. The actual low is going to be in the 40s. The front still looks to be running a bit ahead of schedule per radar and obs. The ONLY consolation for me is I went 3 degrees warmer than the national consensus for the high...0.08" below on precip...and 1 knot stronger on wind. If Norman can avoid a large storm and winds can hit 19+ knots behind the front, that combined with my good forecast for the high would just about negate my going 4 degrees warmer than the national consensus on the low...which looks more and more likely to bust by about half an hour. I'd still feel extremely jipped, probably more so than day 2. As for tomorrow the questions become...how strong are the winds post front and will they still be strong after 6z...how much rain falls after 6z...and how much can temperatures recover in the afternoon? If today's low busts I'd really have nothing to loose for Norman by throwing up hail mary type forecasts for the next 3 days since if I understand correctly our worst city doesn't count towards our cumulative score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 If today's low busts I'd really have nothing to loose for Norman by throwing up hail mary type forecasts for the next 3 days since if I understand correctly our worst city doesn't count towards our cumulative score. Correct, you also get a new "drop city" in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 58/39/17/0.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Went with 59/38/18/.08" for tomorrow. I went with .77" for today.....where is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 53/35/20/.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I forgot to change my forecast by 2 minutes. I let myself forget about the clock. So I am forced to go with 62/35/22/0.3. I'm going to get burned on the high big time because of my mental mistake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 56/37/20/0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 That rain is gunna get there before 06z right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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