NYC/PHL 12/21-12/22 Threat

[tmagan]

Keep in mind over time with every winter storm, you will hear right as the event started: 'The models are under doing precipitation, therefore the model must be wrong'. 99 times out of 100, it has no impact on the overall outcome of the winter storm.

[earthlight]

The 06z NAM is still very bullish with the shortwave over the Northern Plains by 72 hrs..the Upper level height orientation is still crap to the east..but if the shortwave is that strong, the confluence moving northeast could give us a chance at some snow.

[Ericjcrash]

Keep in mind over time with every winter storm, you will hear right as the event started: 'The models are under doing precipitation, therefore the model must be wrong'. 99 times out of 100, it has no impact on the overall outcome of the winter storm.

Ok, I'm not saying it will be a hit I'm just saying its something watch and its different.

[tombo82685]

The 06z NAM is still very bullish with the shortwave over the Northern Plains by 72 hrs..the Upper level height orientation is still crap to the east..but if the shortwave is that strong, the confluence moving northeast could give us a chance at some snow.

look how much slower the 6z is compared to the 0z its nuts

[earthlight]

look how much slower the 6z is compared to the 0z its nuts

Assuming you're talking about the confluence..yeah. It's a good bit slower in moving it northeast. It's still way more bullish with the shortwave..and a bit slower than the GFS which should compensate.

[tmagan]

The 06z NAM is still very bullish with the shortwave over the Northern Plains by 72 hrs..the Upper level height orientation is still crap to the east..but if the shortwave is that strong, the confluence moving northeast could give us a chance at some snow.

If it were a perfect prog, I wouldn't be surprised if the Monday Night football game had thundersnow.

[earthlight]

Now completely closed off at 540dm at 78 hours. The GFS is about 200 miles southeast and flat at that time.

[nzucker]

Assuming you're talking about the confluence..yeah. It's a good bit slower in moving it northeast. It's still way more bullish with the shortwave..and a bit slower than the GFS which should compensate.

It looks like the NAM is totally blowing the way the storm is evolving...where is all this precip on radar in the SE coming from?

[earthlight]

It looks like the NAM is totally blowing the way the storm is evolving...where is all this precip on radar in the SE coming from?

I think you got confused...they were talking about the current storm..we're talking about the light snow threat mid week.

[tombo82685]

Assuming you're talking about the confluence..yeah. It's a good bit slower in moving it northeast. It's still way more bullish with the shortwave..and a bit slower than the GFS which should compensate.

i was talking about the storm itself if you compare

[CooL]

i think tombo is talking about the actual shortwave in comparison to 0z, its way slower and the nam is more agressive with it

[earthlight]

Still closed off at 81 hours..it's going to flatten out eventually, but if we can get the NAM depiction or something like it to verify, we could squeeze out some light stuff.

[earthlight]

Here's the 78 hr panel for all to see. It's a long shot but I will take some flakes.

[Rainshadow]

I just tracked the closed low in Ontario from the ECMWF and GFS that kind of blocks any thoughts of lake cutting, while they end up at the same final destination on Christmas, they come from different sources both around that ridge. The GFS's comes from the Yukon, the Euro's right from the north pole. I could see Tuesday afternoon/night morphing into a repeat of Thursday if the vortex can move farther away in time. Don't you guys sleep?

[tombo82685]

here are the 3z srefs at hr 84, deff interesting

[nzucker]

I think you got confused...they were talking about the current storm..we're talking about the light snow threat mid week.

Yeah OK I see what you're saying, the clipper gets put in the meat grinder but maybe we can squeeze out something.

I really don't understand what's going on with the NAM's handling of the current storm, however. Here is the QPF for the SE on 6z NAM, 6 hrs:

Here is the current NWS radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Where are those bands in TN coming from? Is that all virga? Jackson just reported -SN as per Wunderground.

[earthlight]

I just tracked the closed low in Ontario from the ECMWF and GFS that kind of blocks any thoughts of lake cutting, while they end up at the same final destination on Christmas, they come from different sources both around that ridge. The GFS's comes from the Yukon, the Euro's right from the north pole. I could see Tuesday afternoon/night morphing into a repeat of Thursday if the vortex can move farther away in time. Don't you guys sleep?

It's amazing what a week of studying for finals, combined with some snow signals on the guidance can do. My sleep schedule is officially screwed for the rest of the winter..

[tmagan]

I just tracked the closed low in Ontario from the ECMWF and GFS that kind of blocks any thoughts of lake cutting, while they end up at the same final destination on Christmas, they come from different sources both around that ridge. The GFS's comes from the Yukon, the Euro's right from the north pole. I could see Tuesday afternoon/night morphing into a repeat of Thursday if the vortex can move farther away in time. Don't you guys sleep?

Meteorology is the greatest subject in the sciences. What other science has so much twists and turns on a daily basis?

[tombo82685]

I just tracked the closed low in Ontario from the ECMWF and GFS that kind of blocks any thoughts of lake cutting, while they end up at the same final destination on Christmas, they come from different sources both around that ridge. The GFS's comes from the Yukon, the Euro's right from the north pole. I could see Tuesday afternoon/night morphing into a repeat of Thursday if the vortex can move farther away in time. Don't you guys sleep?

lol no...Tony, totally agree i think we see some snow with this. Every system so far that has been modeled to damp out has been done to quickly. For instance this thursday than again the little clipper right before the cutter last weekend or so which brought some lgt snow to the area and further south into dc area.

[Rainshadow]

It's amazing what a week of studying for finals, combined with some snow signals on the guidance can do. My sleep schedule is officially screwed for the rest of the winter..

I remember those days, except it was staying up to hear the updated forecast at 4 in the morning on NOAA Weather Radio.

[Ericjcrash]

Yeah OK I see what you're saying, the clipper gets put in the meat grinder but maybe we can squeeze out something.

I really don't understand what's going on with the NAM's handling of the current storm, however. Here is the QPF for the SE on 6z NAM, 6 hrs:

Here is the current NWS radar:

http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php

Where are those bands in TN coming from? Is that all virga? Jackson just reported -SN as per Wunderground.

If snow is reported its not virga, I see this as well.

[earthlight]

Yeah OK I see what you're saying, the clipper gets put in the meat grinder but maybe we can squeeze out something.

I really don't understand what's going on with the NAM's handling of the current storm, however. Here is the QPF for the SE on 6z NAM, 6 hrs:

Where are those bands in TN coming from? Is that all virga? Jackson just reported -SN as per Wunderground.

It's definitely coming from the shortwave headed east across the MS River (you can see the feature on short range mesoscale models). I don't think it's anything to worry about in regards to this storm coming further west, though.

I will say this, the models are still making adjustments that, if this storm was a near hit/grazer, would be something to watch. The 00z NAM 12z hr forecast was off by about 50 miles near the MS with the 558dm height line--so the trough is making a late trend towards ever so slightly a hair more amplified.

I would be intrigued by this development if I lived in, say, Ocean City, MD.

[earthlight]

I remember those days, except it was staying up to hear the updated forecast at 4 in the morning on NOAA Weather Radio.

The modern day version features me chomping on some reheated chicken cutlets while browsing your offices forecast and AFD, so I guess it's the same thing in a general sense

[Rainshadow]

lol no...Tony, totally agree i think we see some snow with this. Every system so far that has been modeled to damp out has been done to quickly. For instance this thursday than again the little clipper right before the cutter last weekend or so which brought some lgt snow to the area and further south into dc area.

Yeah just looking at the last four gfs runs valid for tue eve, the vortex trend is weaker and more progressive which opens the door. That's why when you were reading off the euro beyond 168 hours I was laughing on how that Christmas low is going to hit some wall and go nowhere for days. The pattern is blocky, but not that blocky.

[earthlight]

Yeah just looking at the last four gfs runs valid for tue eve, the vortex trend is weaker and more progressive which opens the door. That's why when you were reading off the euro beyond 168 hours I was laughing on how that Christmas low is going to hit some wall and go nowhere for days. The pattern is blocky, but not that blocky.

I really like tonight's Euro in regards to the H5 heights and surface low track w/ the Christmas potential. That's a pretty good pattern for getting some overrunning type snows into the Northern Mid Atlantic. The surface low tracks from Eastern KS basically into Western TN and then redevelops off the Mid-Atlantic coast. It's a ways away but the GEFS means also offer some hope.

[earthlight]

The 00z SPF WRF compos. reflectivity had this very light stuff covered pretty well.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refc_f09.gif

If it's right..we're going to have plenty of radar hallucination posts when this storm comes up the coast.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refc_f23.gif

[SnowGoose69]

By the way, I just read the article in the NY Times regarding the busted storm of February 23, 1989. I'd post the link, but I don't know if that is allowed anymore.

I've seen that article, some uppity business chick bitching about how she was all hyped to throw snowballs at her friends and could not do it and some angry DOT guy saying how meteorologists are never correct.

[Rainshadow]

The modern day version features me chomping on some reheated chicken cutlets while browsing your offices forecast and AFD, so I guess it's the same thing in a general sense

Well I would pass on this morning's afd, I know the person who wrote it.

[nzucker]

It's definitely coming from the shortwave headed east across the MS River (you can see the feature on short range mesoscale models). I don't think it's anything to worry about in regards to this storm coming further west, though.

I will say this, the models are still making adjustments that, if this storm was a near hit/grazer, would be something to watch. The 00z NAM 12z hr forecast was off by about 50 miles near the MS with the 558dm height line--so the trough is making a late trend towards ever so slightly a hair more amplified.

I would be intrigued by this development if I lived in, say, Ocean City, MD.

Yeah I don't think it matters much here but could make a difference to places like RIC, ORF etc...

[tmagan]

I've seen that article, some uppity business chick bitching about how she was all hyped to throw snowballs at her friends and could not do it and some angry DOT guy saying how meteorologists are never correct.

The money quote was from the guy who said we don't have winters anymore, which was the prevailing thought for the public during the winters of the mid-'80's to the early-'90's.