BlizzardWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The front passed here 30 minutes ago, no snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 That snow-shower is pre-front How do you figure? Usually fronts are defined by a shift in winds, which is what Laramie saw along with a temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 How do you figure? Usually fronts are defined by a shift in winds, which is what Laramie saw along with a temp drop. Look futher N. It's a pre frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Look futher N. It's a pre frontal trough. Isn't it kind of a different front than your normal, dropping straight out of the N Arctic front though? It seems things are kind of stretched out to the SW with this front/airmass, which means that places further south and west are getting hit well before places further east and even in some places north. EDIT: It looks like the pseudo-front has hit Cheyenne now, with temperatures dropping from 40 at 10 am to 28 at 11 am, and winds switching from W to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 SmartCast Forecast for 08 Dec 19Z to 09 Dec 19Z Extreme Wx Conditions Dickinson, ND area: Snow through net 24 hours. Looking at the worst conditions from now through 08Z. Visibilities will be down to zero with winds NW at 25 to 30MPH, gusting to 35MPH, especially from 22Z to 04Z. Additional accumulations of 3.9” possible. In addition, wind chills down around -5F. Bismarck, ND Area: Looking at the worst conditions between 00Z to 07Z, with visibilities down to one miles, with winds N at 25 to 30MPH gusting to 36MPH. Wind Chills will be around -15 to -20. Additional snow accumulations of 2.7” possible through the next 24 hours. Fargo, ND Area: Looking at the worst conditions between 06Z and 19Z, with visibilities down to 0, with winds NW 25 to 30MPH gusting to 38MPH. Wind chills around -10 to -15. Additional snow accumulations of 1” possible through next 24 hours. Mobridge, SD area: Looking at strong winds today, with winds up to 45MPH from 05Z to 13Z, blowing snow and wind chills down to -20 possible. Less than 1” possible through next 24 hours. Minneapolis/Brainerd Lake, MN Area: Looking at the heavier snow to begin 10Z, visibilities dropping down to ½ miles with moderate to heavy snow through 19Z. Huron and Watertown, SD Area: seeing the heaviest accumulation of snow from now til 19Z with around 4.5” of additional snow fall. My output forecast across entire Northern Plains uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 12z models shifted the heavier band south some for tonight to include more of my area as well as the twin cities. A pretty substantial shift S, that anomaly is still forming across intermountain W and clearly visible in WY...with the front surging through eastern WY. Once the PV ejects the Rockies the frontogenesis show begins...aimed at the Twin Cities and south-central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 There is the anomaly...across south central WY about to eject over the Black Hills. The warm conveyor belt is already tracking into eastern SD. You can see a well defined left front jet exit feeding the WCB into SD. Once that anomaly ejects the high plains...the frontal deformation frontal band will explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Look futher N. It's a pre frontal trough. Isn't it kind of a different front than your normal, dropping straight out of the N Arctic front though? It seems things are kind of stretched out to the SW with this front/airmass, which means that places further south and west are getting hit well before places further east and even in some places north. EDIT: It looks like the pseudo-front has hit Cheyenne now, with temperatures dropping from 40 at 10 am to 28 at 11 am, and winds switching from W to NW. I agree with Tacoman, it is definitely a leading cold front. Not uncommon when these compact systems eject into the plains to see a initial shot through eastern WY into the Front Range as the topography preferentially funnels/gaps the cold air much earlier. It clearly shows up on vis early in the day with numerous convective lines forming in between the various high ranges of WY. Those convective showers are definitely forming aloft in the cold air on the left side of the met max visible over S WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 On your map if you notice a tiny hole SE of the that bullseye of precip, thats where Provo is...lol I agree that the Salt Lake is not to be underestimated, but it rarely reaches here unless it really gets ripping. Even with that, most models show something for everybody. Also, we have another shot on Monday with warm advection and maybe next thursday too. It isn't difficult to pile it up in the Cottonwoods, but I heard it is dumping nicely in Big Cottonwood. Any reports from the valley? Lake band looks disorganized right now, but that should ramp up later as colder air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Seeing 6-7 inches possible across the Huron- Aberdeen - Watertown, SD region over next 3-9 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 621 PM CST SAT DEC 08 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM SNOW ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W 12/08/2012 M4.4 INCH BROWN SD NWS OFFICE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH 6PM...SNOWFALL RATE 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR...STILL SNOWING MODERATELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 My output currently seeing: Huron, SD area, looking at the heaviest snow potential from now til 11Z, then trending downward. Seeing rates around .9” per hour, with additional 7.1” possible from now til 10/02Z. Watertown SD area: Looking at additional snow accumulation of 8.07” from now til 10/02Z. Redwood Falls, MN Area: Looking at heavy snow round will be from 04Z to 11Z, visibility down to 1 ¼ mile, snow rates up to .9”. Winds will begin to approach 35MPH around 20Z through 01Z, so look for blowing and drifting snow. Right now showing 5.7” possible for this area. St. Cloud Region: Looking at increased snowfall beginning around 07Z lasting through 10/02Z, heaviest of snow will be between 09Z and 21Z, with visibilities down to ¾ mile and snow rates of 1” per hour possible. Initial snow accumulation of 3.3” possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Models are clearly having issues with the upper levels, and there are two well defined upper anomalies, one across E SD and another ejecting into W SD. Once these two features merge, guidance is depicting a deep surface-500 hpa closed low and deep frontogenesis and a well defined deformation band. Some of the guidance (i.e. NAM) depict the deformation pivot setting up right over the Twin Cities and central MN. Should that occur someone may see 10"+. Kudos to the Chanhassen office, they did well hoisting up that Winter Storm Warning well in advance...when guidance depicted a weaker northern track, including the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Snow has started here. Congrats, I expect some winter wonderland pics in the morning. This should be an easy 4-6" for you, likely more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Congrats, I expect some winter wonderland pics in the morning. This should be an easy 4-6" for you, likely more. I'll have some pics...Latest from ABR is now 6" in Aberdeen. You still coming home in a couple weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'll have some pics...Latest from ABR is now 6" in Aberdeen. You still coming home in a couple weeks? Indeed I am. In MN from 16th-26th...which means snow is not likely, lol. Dry and boring weather like to follow me...at least that has been the trend the last 1.5 years after the epic MN winter of 2010/2011. Better get as much snow as you can now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Indeed I am. In MN from 16th-26th...which means snow is not likely, lol. Dry and boring weather like to follow me...at least that has been the trend the last 1.5 years after the epic MN winter of 2010/2011. Better get as much snow as you can now! lol..alright. Maybe MN can hammer another one next weekend via euro/gfs but long ways out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 good thing this system isn't tapping into all the cold that was available in the central prairies, only most of it. -40 to -43C at 500hPa, at least according to the RAOBS near YEG and YQD. but still this is some nasty cold supplementing this system (i think as cold as -37 to -38 for GFK and MOT). but all that snow by the TCH and the Yellowhead is what we were missing last year. looks like we may get a normal winter up here after all, at least closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 good thing this system isn't tapping into all the cold that was available in the central prairies, only most of it. -40 to -43C at 500hPa, at least according to the RAOBS near YEG and YQD. but still this is some nasty cold supplementing this system (i think as cold as -37 to -38 for GFK and MOT). but all that snow by the TCH and the Yellowhead is what we were missing last year. looks like we may get a normal winter up here after all, at least closer to normal. Really coming down now...should be hitting msp in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Really coming down now...should be hitting msp in the next couple hours. i just hope in the morning i'll be able to get to work. it's not looking easy, to say the least. (shift time 10a-7p) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 09/02z TO 10/02z SmartCast Snow Accumulation Here is my latest breakdown for snow from now to 10th at 02Z. Watertown, SD: 7” Redwood Falls, MN: 6.9” St. Cloud, MN 5.9” St. Paul: 4.8” Huron, SD: 4.5” Brainerd Lake: 3.2” In addition, looking at strong winds across Pierre, Huron, Rapid City and Mobridge, winds between 44 and 55MPH possible across the SD region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 09/02z TO 10/02z SmartCast Snow Accumulation Here is my latest breakdown for snow from now to 10th at 02Z. Watertown, SD: 7” Redwood Falls, MN: 6.9” St. Cloud, MN 5.9” St. Paul: 4.8” Huron, SD: 4.5” Brainerd Lake: 3.2” In addition, looking at strong winds across Pierre, Huron, Rapid City and Mobridge, winds between 44 and 55MPH possible across the SD region. Thanks...your smartcast is about right, alot of 5-8" reports out in e SD so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Thanks...your smartcast is about right, alot of 5-8" reports out in e SD so far. Thanks for the information.... love it when I can post accurate inputs for the forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 so where do you derive the smart-cast data from, out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 just got a look at the 00z canadian regional data. 6-8" for the twin cities (15-20 cms). not looking too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 just got a look at the 00z canadian regional data. 6-8" for the twin cities (15-20 cms). not looking too shabby. yeah, 0z rgem & 0z gfs spit out around 0.90 for msp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 yeah, 0z rgem & 0z gfs spit out around 0.90 for msp. so how much you got so far out there since it started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 so how much you got so far out there since it started? close to 5"...still coming down heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 close to 5"...still coming down heavy. 1.5"/hr.. that's a nasty snowfall rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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