OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sometimes it is best to break out the math again. Dust off the cobwebs, thanks Sam I am. my pleasure! If nothing else, it's an entertaining discussion between model runs right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 my pleasure! If nothing else, it's an entertaining discussion between model runs right? Good dead zone talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Think of it this way, As long as Sandy and the trough are not merged, the trough is just a kicker against the hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Think of it this way, As long as Sandy and the trough are not merged*, the trough is just a kicker against the hurricane * and for the merge you need to build the heights between Sandy and the NATL Low so she has nowhere to run except to merge with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 * and for the merge you need to build the heights between Sandy and the NATL Low so she has nowhere to run except to merge with the trough. Right. That was well said by Ryan in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Because this has been ignored in the main thread, I thought I would start a new thread open for discussion (perhaps short if someone has a straight up answer). As cyclonic PV anomalies tend to repel / resist merging, is this significant in how readily a stronger Sandy will phase with incoming trough? From a PV perspective, closed cyclonic anomalies tend to repel / rotate around each other until one weakens and is absorbed by the stronger anomaly. Will a stronger Sandy tend to resist phasing in fact remain very separate from the incoming trough? From the beginning I couldn't help but think this whole situation was very strange, how the euro for several runs was phasing these entities, and seemingly having an affinity to do so/little resistance. Would this lie in the models' depictions of a transition near the bahamas to an extratropical/warm seclusion type deal that promotes a better environment for phasing in with a trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would it matter how early in this process the storm starts to display extratropical features? Less symmetric CDO, less pronounced thermal gradient etc? I get what y'all are driving at I guess, but it seems like if this were a hard and fast rule every strong tropical cyclone that approached a strong trough would resist...and seems like that isn't the case with some of the more extreme historical analogs thrown around the past couple days. Also...some have theorized that the models overdue maintaining trop cyclone strength too far into the mid latitudes....would that also mean false depiction of its remaining a pure separate tropical entity that would be more prone to resist a phase for that long/far N? Not trying to be a weenie, just trying to play devils advocate to your devils advocate to flesh this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NJ hurricane, some mets seem pretty confident this will maintain a deeper warm core right up thru 40N latitude, so i think based on any hints we could get (regarding initial resistiance of phasing) is the models are a bit phase happy and i would adjust landfall a bit to the north (or euro/ens) . I think NNJ/NYC area is the bullseye right now, generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sam... loop PV on the DT (1.5 PVU is fine) for the GFS and you can see a beautiful case of fujiwhara interaction between the 2 PV anomalies that results in a terrifying result for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Phase resistance and resultant Fujiwara interaction would certainly argue for Sandy maintaining a distinct deep warm-core vortex well into ET. Keep in mind the strong fluid trapping within the vortex itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Phase resistance and resultant Fujiwara interaction would certainly argue for Sandy maintaining a distinct deep warm-core vortex well into ET. Keep in mind the strong fluid trapping within the vortex itself. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sam... loop PV on the DT (1.5 PVU is fine) for the GFS and you can see a beautiful case of fujiwhara interaction between the 2 PV anomalies that results in a terrifying result for NE. Yeah! It's amazing to watch. So I brought this up yesterday, and to what extent we can say this is significant, I don't know. Regardless of the final outcome, I definitely think I'll try to do a case study on this from a PV perspective. I think you put it really well yesterday in that Sandy will only phase if she can't do anything else lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Amazing. You can see where the four supportive jet streaks are located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 A lot of talk about the evolution of this event from a PV perspective. Hopefully will get a chance to take a more in depth look at it myself. I'll post anything really interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I took a look at the paper on stinger jets and tropo folds. Ryan Maue had a great cross section of it, I'll post it when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Notice the decending plume of stratospheric air impinging on the LLJ of 90 kts almost underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I don't know if this has been shared here yet, but just wanted to post this for anyone interested in investigating Sandy a little further, like me. http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane4km.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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