Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Updated storm track confuses me.....all the models shift north today (I think) and if you follow the center of the track they actually shifted it a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Irene was a 959 mb 60 knot tropical storm at landfall in NJ. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 overhearing a lot of folks in the office downplaying this... barely any hype from the media today either... I guess all the money coming in to talk more about the election....is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC disco indicates Sandy might be downgraded to a TS in the next advisory and held there for about 36 hrs. Looks like our CWA is most susceptible to the landfall. Intensity forecasting esp. inland always seems annoying though. Seems like it could be anything between wind advisory criteria to your house being blown over, and we probably won't know until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 what a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NBC 10 with Hurricane Schwartz and Sheena Parveen doing a storm special at 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We'll be alright^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hard to believe that's a hurricane... what a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 would love a road trip to WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hard to believe that's a hurricane... its ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a possibility the major affects of the storm could last into Wednesday for interior Nj? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 its ugly and modelled to be ugly to...wont start to gain any strength till prob late sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Per Cecily: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 would love a road trip to WV You driving? That is some serious powpow/gnar-gnar Edit, so these clouds now are already associated with that huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Heading down sea isle Sunday night around 7. Should be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Heading down sea isle Sunday night around 7. Should be epic. You would prob want to head down before mandatory evacs are in place....they might not let you on the island at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 and modelled to be ugly to...wont start to gain any strength till prob late sat yeah we know, anticipation You driving? That is some serious powpow/gnar-gnar Edit, so these clouds now are already associated with that huh? I'm guessing snowshoe will open next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Per Cecily: This graphic might have been better if it just used relative terms like high, higher and highest for the shading to give an idea of where the greatest risk is for high winds. Do they really have enough confidence to put numbers like that on a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This graphic might have been better if it just used relative terms like high, higher and highest for the shading to give an idea of where the greatest risk is for high winds. Do they really have enough confidence to put numbers like that on a map? well at some point you gotta start giving numbers...granted fri night might not be to early...but by sat night u gotta start showing numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Didn't realize the GFS was showing accumulating snow in eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Per Cecily: Do you remember what the pink shading numbers were? It's blocked. 80 - ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Do you remember what the pink shading numbers were? It's blocked. 80 - ?? 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z gefs mean targetting toms river, nj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Do you remember what the pink shading numbers were? It's blocked. 80 - ?? It was just (80+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On the GFS, with that track NNJ-state college, we get strong winds at landfall with the heavy rain threat, and then as it stalls around central pa, and wraps up, as cold air wraps up into the SE quad where we'll be located, the jet stays strong. Assuming it clears out we could see some heavy winds for an EXTENDED period of time... 925mb winds never drop below 50knots. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1. The Euro at 12z did not "cave" to the GFS. It shifted north slightly. It might shift back south and fall back in line with the tropical guidance, it might not, but it's hard to call it a "cave". The Euro's consistency for the last 5 days has been so much greater than the GFS's. 2. It doesn't matter whether you have a landfall at Toms River, ACY, Lewes, or Chincoteague...in terms of inland effects, since as Tom mentioned earlier, Sandy will be extra-tropical so we'll see a more uniform wind dispersion than we would with a purely tropical system. (The coast, of course, is another story entirely....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 1. The Euro at 12z did not "cave" to the GFS. It shifted north slightly. It might shift back south and fall back in line with the tropical guidance, it might not, but it's hard to call it a "cave". The Euro's consistency for the last 5 days has been so much greater than the GFS's. 2. It doesn't matter whether you have a landfall at Toms River, ACY, Lewes, or Chincoteague...in terms of inland effects, since as Tom mentioned earlier, Sandy will be extra-tropical so we'll see a more uniform wind dispersion than we would with a purely tropical system. (The coast, of course, is another story entirely....) One run does not constitute a "caving" by any stretch at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1. The Euro at 12z did not "cave" to the GFS. It shifted north slightly. It might shift back south and fall back in line with the tropical guidance, it might not, but it's hard to call it a "cave". The Euro's consistency for the last 5 days has been so much greater than the GFS's. 2. It doesn't matter whether you have a landfall at Toms River, ACY, Lewes, or Chincoteague...in terms of inland effects, since as Tom mentioned earlier, Sandy will be extra-tropical so we'll see a more uniform wind dispersion than we would with a purely tropical system. (The coast, of course, is another story entirely....) Agree strongly with number 2...even a track towards NYC/LI....would not preclude flooding rain and damaging wind...the primary thing that track would impact is coastal flooding in terms of long term duration of onshore flow or a much shorter duration. For the majority on these boards any landfall from the lower Delmarva right up to LI still means one heckuva storm...it is our friends right on the water and along tidal tributaries for whom an exact track is of extreme importance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 would love a road trip to WV weather bell map? If so, grain of salt on the snow in Eastern PA. Their maps were awful a couple of weeks ago with the Bastardi-hyped snow that never materialized around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 weather bell map? If so, grain of salt on the snow in Eastern PA. Their maps were awful a couple of weeks ago with the Bastardi-hyped snow that never materialized around here. This map also, not sure where it came from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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