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Winter Storm Threat February 3-5


Grothar

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Not seeing a snow threat...I do see this verbatim off the 12 Z ECM accu pro images however...in reference to 2 meter temps

For the first system between 96-120 hrs the temperatures at 102 hrs are in the 40s and 50s with the ABE region in the 55-60 degree range..108 hrs they are still in the 40-50 range ..same for 114 hrs and by 120 they drop to 35-40 in the ABE region..40-45 in NYC with anywhere from .25-1.00 rainfall across the area

For the later system

For the Miller B that effects the region at 174 hrs, I think it would be a stretch to say that would be light snow with temperatures in the 35-40 region and NYC & PHI 40-45 but never the less the QPF is very light to begin with...

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Not seeing a snow threat...I do see this verbatim off the 12 Z ECM accu pro images however...in reference to 2 meter temps

For the first system between 96-120 hrs the temperatures at 102 hrs are in the 40s and 50s with the ABE region in the 55-60 degree range..108 hrs they are still in the 40-50 range ..same for 114 hrs and by 120 they drop to 35-40 in the ABE region..40-45 in NYC with anywhere from .25-1.00 rainfall across the area

For the later system

For the Miller B that effects the region at 174 hrs, I think it would be a stretch to say that would be light snow with temperatures in the 35-40 region and NYC & PHI 40-45 but never the less the QPF is very light to begin with...

Euro ensembles do not support the operational run at all. You better check the Nogaps.

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Euro ensembles do not support the operational run at all. You better check the Nogaps.

Never said they did but if you want to throw the NOGAPS into the equation it does not have a snowstorm either :)

I think that was my whole point....

We are so starved for snow this year that we are buying into long range phantom snow events on one model run...

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Never said they did but if you want to throw the NOGAPS into the equation it does not have a snowstorm either :)

I think that was my whole point....

We are so starved for snow this year that we are buying into long range phantom snow events on one model run...

Who bought into it? Most likely any storm later next week is rain for here. After that is when most people, including many meteorologists, believe some legitimate cold and storm chances come.

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Who bought into it? Most likely any storm later next week is rain for here. After that is when most people, including many meteorologists, believe some legitimate cold and storm chances come.

You do not visit all the sites that i visit apparently

"The superbowl weekend storm threat is very much the real deal in my opinion. "

"JB on latest blog liking a phaser along the east coast this weekend. Southern energy will come out faster than gfs protrays phasing with the northern jet as it comes out. The potential for a east coast snowstorm is real this weekend. "

Not to mention the NYC threads!

Would these be the same mets that forecasted a historical pattern flip in January and we are currently +4.8 degrees on the month?

Call me cautious ...

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GFS more favorable than Euro and we know how that usually turns out but HPC indicates we have a shot.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS..ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OF 06Z GFS/06Z

GEFS MEAN/LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS/ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GROUPINGS

CONTINUE TO CONCUR WITH ABOVE THINKING. A DIFFICULT AND LOW TO NO

CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN DETAILS LATE PERIOD MAINLY WITH THE ERN

CONUS TROF. BASED ON AN AMALGAM OF DAYS 6-7 SOLUTIONS THE 06Z GFS

ENS MEAN SHOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO THE SOLUTION AND SUPPORTS THE

EARLIER ABOVE USED OVERNIGHT MODEL BLEND. DEPICTION BY DAY 5 FRI

OF A CENTER JUMPING SFC LOW FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST AND

THAN AN EXIT NEWD TO NEAR THE NEW ENG BENCH MARK BY DAY 6 SAT

SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW

CONFIDENCE.

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I like the banana high being shown on the gfs. Don't like the fact of how quickly the trof goes neg tilt which pushes the storm way west. When it does 2ndry its so far west that it 2ndrs over land which isnt good. Need that trof to not take on a neg tilt as fast.

Yep. The high position on the GFS as modeled is pretty good.

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0z GFS has some initial frozen precip... Primary low take a while to transfer, and the high slips east off the coast. Secondary low is a 1004mb low sitting off south jersey hr 168.

850's go up to allentown to the ne pa nw nj border

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171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby

Still need some work. If the storm started earlier, the hp would stick around longer. The primary really brings in some warm air kinda flooding the coastal plain.not a complete torch, but quicker on the transfer would be more ideal.

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171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby

On this run, we could get a little snow on the front and back of the system. Need the h5 progression to be better to get anything major in the way of snow. Still a ways to go.

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171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby

Still need some work. If the storm started earlier, the hp would stick around longer. The primary really brings in some warm air kinda flooding the coastal plain.not a complete torch, but quicker on the transfer would be more ideal.

Precip ends between 168 and 171...you might squeeze out a flake but odds are it ends as rain verbatim south of I-78 in PA and NJ.

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The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one!

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The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one!

on the immediate coast maybe, but with those low tracks the cities would have a northeast wind which source region is over land and not directly over the water.

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The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one!

Well hopefully warmer waters can trigger more dynamic systems, maybe not this weekend, but down the line :whistle:

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