HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 I bet there were healthy winds onshore under the deeper convection. For sure. But it wasn't worth a whole schlep down there-- so I feel OK about not going after this one. Even when I'm desperate, a rapidly weakening Cat 1 with an exposed center ain't gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 lolz!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 This year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 H-h-h-halfacane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Paul is rapidly unraveling: as of 2 pm PDT, it's at 980 mb/65 kt. The center is apparently still offshore-- but very close to Cabo San Lazaro. Puerto San Carlos-- perhaps 15 mi E of the center and still within the remaining convection-- is probably experiencing some rough conditions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Pretty pathetic, I have to say. It's just gotten sheared to bits. Might not even make it ashore as a 'cane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 *needs to learn to just stick to a forecast hunch* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 If you were there, Josh, then you'd have a different attitude. Puerto Cortes has experienced 4 hours of continuous gales and a peak wind gust of 62 kt at 18:30 UTC. Get ye now to Puerto San Carlos or Adolfo López Mateos right now and join the hurricane festivities. Given the obs at Puerto Cortes, I'd guess that some of the higher elevations near the coast got the requisite 64 kt for 1 min to call this a "hit." Of course, I'd prefer a better observational network to verify that wind (and pressure) field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 If you were there, Josh, then you'd have a different attitude. Puerto Cortes has experienced 4 hours of continuous gales and a peak wind gust of 62 kt at 18:30 UTC. Get ye now to Puerto San Carlos or Adolfo López Mateos right now and join the hurricane festivities. Given the obs at Puerto Cortes, I'd guess that some of the higher elevations near the coast got the requisite 64 kt for 1 min to call this a "hit." Of course, I'd prefer a better observational network to verify that wind (and pressure) field. I honestly don't think I'd feel differently at all. It looks horrible and might not even be an official hurricane landfall (even if hurricane winds scrape the coast), and I've experienced Cat-1 conditions enough these last few years. I am absolutely cool with missing this one. In fact, I am glad I didn't make the investment. P.S. If 64-kt winds were measured at an elevated location-- say, a mountain peak-- those would not be considered representative of the best-track intensity-- which is based on winds at 10 m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 And.... poof!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 I doubt it's a hurricane at 5 pm PDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I doubt it's a hurricane at 5 pm PDT. 70 mph tropical storm and still offshore. Some of these East Pacific storms can fade really quickly before landfall... Bud was expected to be a hurricane at landfall before it rapidly dissipated without making landfall. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Might have been a better idea for NHC to stick with the original thinking... Paul now looks to barely move over Baja California Sur as a rapidly dissipating tropical storm. Last night's NHC forecast: This morning's forecast: The latest forecast - looks remarkably similar to last night's forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Might have been a better idea for NHC to stick with the original thinking... Paul now looks to barely move over Baja California Sur as a rapidly dissipating tropical storm. Last night's NHC forecast: This morning's forecast: The latest forecast - looks remarkably similar to last night's forecast: Wow-- you're right! That's kinda crazy how close the actual track was to the older forecast. Weird. It's like Paul faked us all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 17, 2012 Author Share Posted October 17, 2012 Barely a TS now. Convection is gone. It's always so hardcore to see these late-season storms can just disintegrate under industrial-grade shear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I doubt the weak disturbance in the STJ could have generated widescale light stratiform rain here in Houston without all that sheared moisture from Paul. Low levels were rather dry, it took a while for radar echoes to become rain. Obviously, track forecast and intensity forecast are rather closely related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 For the 3rd straight run, the GFS is recurving a TC into the area between southern Sinaloa and northern Nayarit (Pacific coast of MX ESE of Baja Sur) between 10/30 and 11/2. What 's interesting about that location is that 6 of the 10 major 'cane hits on the Pacific coast of MX since 1949 hit in either Sinaloa or Nayarit (mostly Sinaloa). Regarding the other four majors, one hit just south of there in Jalisco and two hit in Baja Sur (southern half of Baja pen.). The point is that 9 of the 10 majors hit in a fairly narrow area that includes where the last three GFS runs are taking this TC. Would climo say that is too late for a major hit there? Well, the latest five hits were 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, and 10/27. I would think that 10/30-11/2 would still be close enough for decent climo support, especially if we assume we're in an oncoming El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 For the 3rd straight run, the GFS is recurving a TC into the area between southern Sinaloa and northern Nayarit (Pacific coast of MX ESE of Baja Sur) between 10/30 and 11/2. What 's interesting about that location is that 6 of the 10 major 'cane hits on the Pacific coast of MX since 1949 hit in either Sinaloa or Nayarit (mostly Sinaloa). Regarding the other four majors, one hit just south of there in Jalisco and two hit in Baja Sur (southern half of Baja pen.). The point is that 9 of the 10 majors hit in a fairly narrow area that includes where the last three GFS runs are taking this TC. Would climo say that is too late for a major hit there? Well, the latest five hits were 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, and 10/27. I would think that 10/30-11/2 would still be close enough for decent climo support, especially if we assume we're in an oncoming El Nino. Yeah, Sinaloa is the prime landfall zone-- where the good sh*t hits. And as per my stats above, late-Oct is prime time. The whole scenario is climatologically solid. P.S. The Euro is clean as a whistle though Day 10-- so it's gonna be boring for a while. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Yeah, Sinaloa is the prime landfall zone-- where the good sh*t hits. And as per my stats above, late-Oct is prime time. The whole scenario is climatologically solid. Whereas the Euro still shows nothing, the GFS runs continue to show solid hits in MX between 10/29 and 11/2: Thu 12Z: southern Sinaloa 11/2 Thu 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/29 Fri 0Z: Baja Sur 10/31 Fri 6Z: Baja Sur 10/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 P.S. If 64-kt winds were measured at an elevated location-- say, a mountain peak-- those would not be considered representative of the best-track intensity-- which is based on winds at 10 m. Sustained winds are 1 or 10 minute average winds measured at a height of 10m AGL (Above Ground Level) NOT 10m MSL. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Sustained winds are 1 or 10 minute average winds measured at a height of 10m AGL (Above Ground Level) NOT 10m MSL. Steve But would they consider winds measured on 10 m AGL on a mountain peak representative? My understanding, from reading past reports, is that they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Whereas the Euro still shows nothing, the GFS runs continue to show solid hits in MX between 10/29 and 11/2: Thu 12Z: southern Sinaloa 11/2 Thu 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/29 Fri 0Z: Baja Sur 10/31 Fri 6Z: Baja Sur 10/29 Sinaloa would be hawtter than the Baja. Does it look like a strong system? Feel free to post graphics to illustrate your posts-- when you mention model hints. (I'm out and about right now, so it's hard for me to check.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 There is a better easterly stearing flow at this time of year so whatever does form has a higher chance of making landfall. A strong motion perpindicular to the coast wouldalso increase the ods of a Cat2+ landfall if it can stay south over the warmer SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 There is a better easterly stearing flow at this time of year so whatever does form has a higher chance of making landfall. A strong motion perpindicular to the coast wouldalso increase the ods of a Cat2+ landfall if it can stay south over the warmer SSTs. Agreed. And that is why October is the month of intense landfalls in this basin. Since 1949, 8 of the 10 major landfalls were in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 But would they consider winds measured on 10 m AGL on a mountain peak representative? My understanding, from reading past reports, is that they don't. Would depend somewhat upon circumstances. For example Sierra Vista is at 4500 ft elevation and during Lester we had 48G68kt winds. When a storm moves in over mountainous terrain hilltop and valley winds are all you're going to get. OTOH if the hill is isolated then its report will not likely reflect what's happening below. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Sinaloa would be hawtter than the Baja. Does it look like a strong system? Feel free to post graphics to illustrate your posts-- when you mention model hints. (I'm out and about right now, so it's hard for me to check.) GFS runs (none look to be unraveling prior to landfall): Thu 12Z: southern Sinaloa 11/2 Thu 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/29 Fri 0Z: southern Baja Sur 10/31 moving ENE ~20 mph Fri 6Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE ~15 mph Fri 12Z: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE ~15 mph Fri 18Z: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE ~25 mph ------------------------------------------------------ 0Z Fri GFS: southern Baja Sur 10/31 moving ENE ~20 mph: 6Z Fri GFS: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE ~15 mph: 12Z Fri GFS: southern Baja Sur 10/29 moving NNE ~15 mph: 18Z Fri GFS: southern Sinaloa 10/30 moving NE ~25 mph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Nice!! Thanks for this Larry-- really appreciate you compiling these. The fact that the feature appears consistently in so many runs is very interestin', to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Operational Euro still not showing a darn thing (as of the 00Z run). The EPAC's as clean as a whistle through Day 10. It's kind of weird that the GFS has been so consistently showing a really well-developed system whereas the Euro isn't even showing a pressure blip. It's another one of these cases where we'll just need to wait and see which model comes through with the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Nice!! Thanks for this Larry-- really appreciate you compiling these. The fact that the feature appears consistently in so many runs is very interestin', to say the least. You're welcome. 0Z has it further south: Jalisco on 10/31. 0Z Ensemble mean: Euro has nothing. GFS has something decent. CDN has something but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 I see Jorge lurking. Jorge, would you please weigh in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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