ayuud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Still awaiting snow here ITH this season. Hoping for a rogue squall to pass through this weekend, but flow does not look quite northerly enough to be ideal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thursday afternoon there may be some weak lake effect with westerly flow behind the cold front, with the dry air and stable layer around 800 mb limiting the intensity. On Friday however, it looks like a shortwave will reach western NY mid-morning, bringing in some increased moisture. The BUF 12z NAM bufkit showed a very moist layer from the surface up through 700 mb Friday evening. Instability at this time also looks pretty good with 560 J/kg lake induced cape. There may a bit of wind shear present, especially from 800 to 700 mb, but the mid levels of the band look to be fairly well aligned at a 250-260 wind direction. This would probably put the band somewhere from the Buffalo area into southern Erie county. The band may move to the south early Saturday as the trough moves eastward and the winds shift more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE THEPRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. INITIALLY THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THIS MAY KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SNOWS AT BAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH INCREASING PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STEADILY COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS CELSIUS. LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW INITIALLY STARTS OUT WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN BACKS TO MORE SOUTHWEST AS WE GET TOWARD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY EASILY SUPPORTS BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY BY MID DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS... INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON THE DETAILS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO GROW ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT. FOR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE APPEARING RATHER FAVORABLE...WITH LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS UP OVER 10K FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF THIS PANS OUT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE SNOWS MOVE INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. WHETHER THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL BE THE FIRST DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON. -- End Changed Discussion -- :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS now has heavy snow in the forecast in their point and click forecast... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.83871656195075&lon=-78.782958984375&site=buf&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Not comparing it to the Dec first forecast from last year but its looking like we could get a very promising lake effect event. Hopefully theyll add thunder and lighning in the forecast soon too =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Can't wait. Will be taking lots of videos/pictures and posting here throughout the event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If the lake snow doesnt set up over my area (I'll be in West Seneca in the AM unless the band sets up over there, and in Cheektowaga where I live in the PM) I'll be chasing it with my camera =] Hopefully itll set up either in West Seneca or Cheektowaga so I can stay in the house and see for myself but somewhere inbetween there wouldnt be bad either. =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If the lake snow doesnt set up over my area (I'll be in West Seneca in the AM unless the band sets up over there, and in Cheektowaga where I live in the PM) I'll be chasing it with my camera =] Hopefully itll set up either in West Seneca or Cheektowaga so I can stay in the house and see for myself but somewhere inbetween there wouldnt be bad either. =] You live in a new place every other month. Stick to one place of residence! I hope my avatar comes to fruition on Friday, if radar looks like that on Friday, we could be looking at a foot+ easily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 something isn't right here...maybe I missing something but I just don't see the overwhelming optimism for this event either from BUF or from the board... models are hinting at some decent low-level shear during the favorable time period for BUF. Instability is decent...but I think the NAM is onto something with showing rather limited qpf for the event Friday evening. I think a moderate event is likely...but I'd lean away from warning criteria and certainly from a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 something isn't right here...maybe I missing something but I just don't see the overwhelming optimism for this event either from BUF or from the board... models are hinting at some decent low-level shear during the favorable time period for BUF. Instability is decent...but I think the NAM is onto something with showing rather limited qpf for the event Friday evening. I think a moderate event is likely...but I'd lean away from warning criteria and certainly from a major event. Nws seems pretty optimistic... Their point and click forecast have heavy snow forecasted and their new AFD as of 445 am sure seems optimistic for the buf metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hey I'll take anything with the way this winter is setting up lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nws seems pretty optimistic... Their point and click forecast have heavy snow forecasted and their new AFD as of 445 am sure seems optimistic for the buf metro area... Yes they are hinting at a significant accumulations on the HWO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE METRO BUFFALO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm with you ayudd. 6 inches would make me so happy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nws seems pretty optimistic... Their point and click forecast have heavy snow forecasted and their new AFD as of 445 am sure seems optimistic for the buf metro area... I agree...that's why I posted about not quite seeming the optimism. To me, this doesn't seem like a classic significant event...but, with the lack of snow this year 6" would seem like 12". I'd like to hear LEK's thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Models look better than they did last night with less shear being forecast. Band will probably set up in the morning north of the city...possibly in southern Ontario and Niagara Falls..then settle south through the metro area in the afternoon and evening. The shortwave is progressive so it appears the duration of favorable winds will be the main limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree...that's why I posted about not quite seeming the optimism. To me, this doesn't seem like a classic significant event...but, with the lack of snow this year 6" would seem like 12". I'd like to hear LEK's thoughts on it. Don paul is going for 4-8" for the city. Now–onto the mesoscale. The lake snow will develop overnight tom’w night. Boundary lyr flow will be weak (lighter winds), so this will not be a Buf to Roc event. There are hints of some oscillation during the day Friday, so the duration-per-location remains in some doubt. The lapse rate will be impressive, with synoptic lift added to the mesoscale, and the dendritic snow growth region is a good one. The NAM numerical outlook takes the bndry lyr to 230 for a short time, but has the veering with the short wave passage by late Friday. Snowfall rates should be pretty decent at times, but it’s still problematical how are north of Buffalo the LES band will go. The best bet, IMO, right now appears to be Buffalo, the Buffalo Stowns and ern ‘burbs, with the chance of parts of Amherst & Clarence-Akron getting a fair shot. Mike will have lots more at noon–I have a meeting downtown, so I won’t have more until later. Of course, I haven’t seen the new GFS, so Mike will have more data behind his noon fcst than I have right now. So, I can’t put numbers on anything right now. It will not be a wind-driven event, so its impact on travel will be somewhat less than it might be otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Models look better than they did last night with less shear being forecast. Band will probably set up in the morning north of the city...possibly in southern Ontario and Niagara Falls..then settle south through the metro area in the afternoon and evening. The shortwave is progressive so it appears the duration of favorable winds will be the main limiting factor. Can downtown still see LES from a 230 wind?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Can downtown still see LES from a 230 wind?. downtown does best on a 250 bl wind. I think Don's wrong in the sense of concern that it doesn't get that far north...the euro and the nam paint a SW wind in the morning hours...and show the band north of the city into southern Ontario and Niagara Falls...that's likely where it will start. Then it should swing south in the afternoon and evening. I'm actually concerned that my area will only get an hour or two of heavy snow before the shortwave passes...since the 230-240 winds last longer than the 250-255 winds. But these are mesoscale features that are difficult to resolve 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 mm5 stony brook has a moderate lake-effect band develop on thursday night over the city and the southtowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 mm5 stony brook has a moderate lake-effect band develop on thursday night over the city and the southtowns Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 downtown does best on a 250 bl wind. I think Don's wrong in the sense of concern that it doesn't get that far north...the euro and the nam paint a SW wind in the morning hours...and show the band north of the city into southern Ontario and Niagara Falls...that's likely where it will start. Then it should swing south in the afternoon and evening. I'm actually concerned that my area will only get an hour or two of heavy snow before the shortwave passes...since the 230-240 winds last longer than the 250-255 winds. But these are mesoscale features that are difficult to resolve 48 hours out. you live around orchard park right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 you live around orchard park right? west seneca...about 1/2 mile from south Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice to have something on the radar screen to track in what has so far been a slow start to the winter. Hopefully everyone in WNY can cash in with at least a few inches. Bigger picture, I'm more optimistic that BUF and points north will have a better chance of getting in the game on more lake effect events this year compared to the last couple years. Severe blocking during the last couple winters gave little to no opportunities for SW/WSW flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice to have something on the radar screen to track in what has so far been a slow start to the winter. Hopefully everyone in WNY can cash in with at least a few inches. Bigger picture, I'm more optimistic that BUF and points north will have a better chance of getting in the game on more lake effect events this year compared to the last couple years. Severe blocking during the last couple winters gave little to no opportunities for SW/WSW flow events. some moderate blocking in January would really help out. This ridiculous +AO isn't doing anyone...including BUF any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 west seneca...about 1/2 mile from south Buffalo. oh cool,they got clobbered last year from that wicked LES storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro sets up a decent band right over the city for give or take 6 hours Fri morn through the early afternoon. Moderate instability, unfavorable synoptic lift, and a decent but not really high cap should limit this band to the 1-2"/hr. variety as opposed to the more epic 2-4/3-5"/hr. variety that we have seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I thought Synoptic systems increase lift as they come through? It gives moisture and eliminates dryer air when moving up the fetch of lake erie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 LES watches are up.5-9" for the erie band and 8-12" for the ontario one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LES watches are up.5-9" for the erie band and 8-12" for the ontario one.. 8 Inches would make me the happiest person alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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